{
  "game": "Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves, NLDS Game 3",
  "first_pitch_utc": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z",
  "snapshot_checked_at": "2026-10-06T20:32:10.352340Z",
  "model_version": "mlb-v1.0-84a34a99fd94a80f-2026-10-05",
  "model_inputs_through": "2026-10-05",
  "model": {
    "mean": 16.94,
    "build": [
      {
        "label": "Recent outs per start",
        "value": 19.0,
        "unit": "outs",
        "op": null
      },
      {
        "label": "Machine-learning model (47 inputs)",
        "value": 16.9332,
        "unit": "outs",
        "op": "\u2192"
      },
      {
        "label": "Adjusted to past results",
        "value": 16.9422,
        "unit": "outs",
        "op": "\u2192"
      }
    ],
    "distribution": {
      "start": 4,
      "p": [
        0.0067,
        0.0023,
        0.0044,
        0.0029,
        0.0079,
        0.0104,
        0.0132,
        0.029,
        0.024,
        0.049,
        0.0491,
        0.068,
        0.1158,
        0.1532,
        0.1478,
        0.1289,
        0.063,
        0.039,
        0.0397,
        0.0218,
        0.0109,
        0.0073,
        0.0006,
        0.0053
      ],
      "low": true,
      "high": true
    }
  },
  "three_views": {
    "books_no_vig": {
      "le17": 0.4116,
      "ge19": 0.3659,
      "eq18": 0.2225
    },
    "model": {
      "le17": 0.5359,
      "eq18": 0.1478,
      "ge19": 0.3165
    },
    "last_10_starts": {
      "le17": 0.1,
      "eq18": 0.6,
      "ge19": 0.3
    }
  },
  "after_bullpen_check_estimate": {
    "ge19": 0.4,
    "eq18": 0.22251556020497354,
    "le17": 0.37748443979502644
  },
  "last_10_starts": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-23",
      "opponent": "vs SD",
      "outs": 18,
      "pitches": 98
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-29",
      "opponent": "@ NYM",
      "outs": 18,
      "pitches": 94
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-08",
      "opponent": "@ NYY",
      "outs": 18,
      "pitches": 103
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-14",
      "opponent": "vs AZ",
      "outs": 18,
      "pitches": 108
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-21",
      "opponent": "@ MIL",
      "outs": 18,
      "pitches": 94
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-27",
      "opponent": "vs LAD",
      "outs": 27,
      "pitches": 109
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-04",
      "opponent": "@ PHI",
      "outs": 18,
      "pitches": 103
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-11",
      "opponent": "vs PHI",
      "outs": 21,
      "pitches": 94
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-23",
      "opponent": "vs CIN",
      "outs": 17,
      "pitches": 97
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-29",
      "opponent": "vs PHI",
      "outs": 19,
      "pitches": 95
    }
  ],
  "recent_averages": [
    {
      "games": 5,
      "mean": 20.4,
      "workload": 6.8,
      "pitches": 99.6
    },
    {
      "games": 10,
      "mean": 19.2,
      "workload": 6.3999999999999995,
      "pitches": 99.5
    },
    {
      "games": 15,
      "mean": 18.133333333333333,
      "workload": 6.044444444444444,
      "pitches": 94.66666666666667
    }
  ],
  "opponent": {
    "team": "LAD",
    "label": "Opposing lineup",
    "items": [
      {
        "label": "Strikeout rate",
        "value": 20.6,
        "unit": "%",
        "league": 22.3,
        "rank": "25th highest of 30",
        "used": true
      },
      {
        "label": "Runs per game",
        "value": 4.77,
        "unit": "",
        "league": 4.48,
        "rank": "6th most of 30",
        "used": true
      }
    ]
  },
  "result": {
    "outs": 15,
    "innings": "5.0",
    "hits": 7,
    "runs": 3,
    "strikeouts": 7,
    "walks": 0,
    "final": "Dodgers 3, Braves 1"
  },
  "validation_source": "https://fourthandvalue.com/mlb/validation.html"
}