{
  "season": 2026,
  "week": 2,
  "game": "Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs",
  "kickoff_utc": "2026-09-21T00:20:00Z",
  "model_generated_at": "2026-09-20T13:53:50.513403+00:00",
  "quote_min": "2026-09-20T20:42:03Z",
  "quote_max": "2026-09-20T20:43:01Z",
  "model": {
    "mu": 26.985277048330104,
    "sigma": 10.270881780045494,
    "raw": 0.6698740014078619,
    "calibrated": 0.6363636363636364,
    "career_games": 72,
    "own_weight": 0.6428571428571429,
    "own_weighted_mean": 30.716509313600408,
    "pool_mean": 27.794310722100658,
    "pool_sigma": 13.401408860751888,
    "career_mean": 29.672866959493355,
    "career_sigma": 10.270881780045494,
    "recent_games": 1,
    "recent_mean": 31.0,
    "base_mean": 29.938293567594684,
    "defense_rating": 1.3287892269251815,
    "defense_multiplier": 0.9013632319224455,
    "poisson_comparison": 0.8099669016867287,
    "normal_negative_mass": 0.0037249021986396026
  },
  "price": {
    "preferred_book": "DraftKings",
    "line": 31.5,
    "odds": -110,
    "break_even": 0.5238095238095238,
    "fair_american": -175.0,
    "consensus_line": 31.5,
    "exact_line_consensus": 0.49179655455291227,
    "exact_line_books": 3,
    "ev_per_100": 21.487603305785118
  },
  "calibration": {
    "fitted_on_season": 2025,
    "fitted_on_weeks": [
      4,
      5,
      6,
      7,
      9,
      10,
      11,
      12,
      14
    ],
    "n_graded_picks": 12904,
    "note": "Fit against the hierarchical (career_baseline.py) model, not the old recent-4-only model."
  },
  "offers": [
    {
      "book": "DraftKings",
      "line": 31.5,
      "under": -110,
      "over": -116,
      "under_devig": 0.4937655860349127,
      "raw": 0.6698740014078619,
      "calibrated": 0.6363636363636364,
      "model_ev_per_100": 21.487603305785118,
      "timestamp": "2026-09-20T20:43:01Z"
    },
    {
      "book": "BetOnline.ag",
      "line": 31.5,
      "under": -110,
      "over": -118,
      "under_devig": 0.49179655455291227,
      "raw": 0.6698740014078619,
      "calibrated": 0.6363636363636364,
      "model_ev_per_100": 21.487603305785118,
      "timestamp": "2026-09-20T20:42:03Z"
    },
    {
      "book": "BetMGM",
      "line": 32.5,
      "under": -125,
      "over": -105,
      "under_devig": 0.5203045685279188,
      "raw": 0.7043412897859985,
      "calibrated": 0.6363636363636364,
      "model_ev_per_100": 14.545454545454529,
      "timestamp": "2026-09-20T20:42:16Z"
    },
    {
      "book": "Bovada",
      "line": 31.5,
      "under": -110,
      "over": -120,
      "under_devig": 0.48987854251012153,
      "raw": 0.6698740014078619,
      "calibrated": 0.6363636363636364,
      "model_ev_per_100": 21.487603305785118,
      "timestamp": "2026-09-20T20:42:49Z"
    }
  ],
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "name": "Published model",
      "mean": 26.985277048330104,
      "raw": 0.6698740014078619,
      "calibrated": 0.6363636363636364,
      "ev_per_100": 21.487603305785118
    },
    {
      "name": "Half the defense adjustment",
      "mean": 28.461785307962398,
      "raw": 0.6163118551360811,
      "calibrated": 0.5625,
      "ev_per_100": 7.386363636363624
    },
    {
      "name": "No defense adjustment",
      "mean": 29.938293567594684,
      "raw": 0.5604269741656207,
      "calibrated": 0.5,
      "ev_per_100": -4.545454545454552
    },
    {
      "name": "No defense adjustment, +2 attempts",
      "mean": 31.938293567594684,
      "raw": 0.48298093728915864,
      "calibrated": 0.5,
      "ev_per_100": -4.545454545454552
    }
  ],
  "splits": [
    {
      "label": "All 2025 appearances",
      "n": 13,
      "mean": 29.53846153846154,
      "unders": 9,
      "hit_rate": 0.6923076923076923
    },
    {
      "label": "Home (excluding neutral site)",
      "n": 6,
      "mean": 29.666666666666668,
      "unders": 5,
      "hit_rate": 0.8333333333333334
    },
    {
      "label": "Away",
      "n": 6,
      "mean": 30.0,
      "unders": 3,
      "hit_rate": 0.5
    },
    {
      "label": "Away, excluding Jacksonville injury exit",
      "n": 5,
      "mean": 34.6,
      "unders": 2,
      "hit_rate": 0.4
    },
    {
      "label": "Neutral (Berlin)",
      "n": 1,
      "mean": 26.0,
      "unders": 1,
      "hit_rate": 1.0
    },
    {
      "label": "Night (kickoff at/after 7 p.m. ET)",
      "n": 0,
      "mean": null,
      "unders": 0,
      "hit_rate": null
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "schedule": "https://github.com/nflverse/nfldata/blob/master/data/games.csv",
    "stats": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/tag/player_stats",
    "odds": "The Odds API: US region, event-specific player_pass_attempts, retrieved 2026-09-20; best among returned books only",
    "night_definition": "Kickoff at or after 19:00 America/New_York; not all nationally televised games"
  }
}