{ "summary": { "schema": 1, "season": 2026, "completed_week": 4, "preview_week": 5, "generated_at": "2026-10-07T16:52:24.905742+00:00", "completed_archive": "immutable-weekly-archive", "preview_archive": "immutable-weekly-archive", "props": { "tickets": { "selected": 170, "graded": 166, "pending": 4, "wins": 89, "losses": 77, "pushes": 0, "win_rate": 0.536144578313253, "units": 18.83667483807428, "roi": 0.11347394480767639 }, "ticket_markets": { "pass_attempts": { "selected": 13, "graded": 13, "pending": 0, "wins": 9, "losses": 4, "pushes": 0, "win_rate": 0.6923076923076923, "units": 4.1329133123290145, "roi": 0.3179164086406934 }, "pass_completions": { "selected": 9, "graded": 9, "pending": 0, "wins": 5, "losses": 4, "pushes": 0, "win_rate": 0.5555555555555556, "units": 1.15, "roi": 0.12777777777777777 }, "pass_tds": { "selected": 24, "graded": 24, "pending": 0, "wins": 14, "losses": 10, "pushes": 0, "win_rate": 0.5833333333333334, "units": 7.640342585065615, "roi": 0.3183476077110673 }, "receptions": { "selected": 73, "graded": 71, "pending": 2, "wins": 38, "losses": 33, "pushes": 0, "win_rate": 0.5352112676056338, "units": 10.068656957986647, "roi": 0.14181206983079786 }, "recv_yds": { "selected": 2, "graded": 1, "pending": 1, "wins": 1, "losses": 0, "pushes": 0, "win_rate": 1.0, "units": 1.0, "roi": 1.0 }, "rush_attempts": { "selected": 26, "graded": 26, "pending": 0, "wins": 12, "losses": 14, "pushes": 0, "win_rate": 0.46153846153846156, "units": -1.9302234253385142, "roi": -0.07423936251301978 }, "rush_yds": { "selected": 23, "graded": 22, "pending": 1, "wins": 10, "losses": 12, "pushes": 0, "win_rate": 0.45454545454545453, "units": -3.225014591968481, "roi": -0.1465915723622037 } }, "market_results": [ { "market": "interceptions", "matched": 25, "overs": 13, "unders": 12, "pushes": 0 }, { "market": "pass_attempts", "matched": 23, "overs": 12, "unders": 11, "pushes": 0 }, { "market": "pass_completions", "matched": 25, "overs": 15, "unders": 10, "pushes": 0 }, { "market": "pass_tds", "matched": 31, "overs": 16, "unders": 15, "pushes": 0 }, { "market": "pass_yds", "matched": 31, "overs": 15, "unders": 16, "pushes": 0 }, { "market": "receptions", "matched": 102, "overs": 50, "unders": 52, "pushes": 0 }, { "market": "recv_yds", "matched": 104, "overs": 55, "unders": 49, "pushes": 0 }, { "market": "rush_attempts", "matched": 40, "overs": 19, "unders": 21, "pushes": 0 }, { "market": "rush_yds", "matched": 64, "overs": 26, "unders": 38, "pushes": 0 } ], "probability_overall": { "n": 417, "model_brier": 0.2519625976578285, "market_brier": 0.2511118147820912, "brier_difference_ci95": [ -0.0032065596920019305, 0.0054187423377289054 ] } }, "totals": { "games": 16, "excluded_before_snapshot": [], "archived_overs": 9, "archived_unders": 7, "archived_pushes": 0, "model_direction": { "wins": 4, "losses": 12, "pushes": 0, "units": -8.232210055739468, "priced_games": 16, "unpriced_games": 0 }, "mae": { "model": 11.070188757210754, "market": 9.90625, "recorded_close": 9.625 }, "closing": { "overs": 9, "unders": 7, "pushes": 0 } }, "preview": { "total_gaps": [ { "game": "DET @ ARI", "home_team": "ARI", "away_team": "DET", "season": 2026, "week": 5, "gameday": "2026-10-11", "home_pred": 22.037102664816203, "away_pred": 23.412661679953928, "total_pred": 45.44976434477013, "market_total": 54.5, "gap": -9.05023565522987 }, { "game": "PHI @ JAX", "home_team": "JAX", "away_team": "PHI", "season": 2026, "week": 5, "gameday": "2026-10-11", "home_pred": 27.26441802034331, "away_pred": 19.86943191152484, "total_pred": 47.13384993186816, "market_total": 42.0, "gap": 5.133849931868163 }, { "game": "BUF @ LA", "home_team": "LA", "away_team": "BUF", "season": 2026, "week": 5, "gameday": "2026-10-12", "home_pred": 23.99551992239065, "away_pred": 25.884263461475584, "total_pred": 49.87978338386623, "market_total": 54.5, "gap": -4.620216616133767 }, { "game": "BAL @ ATL", "home_team": "ATL", "away_team": "BAL", "season": 2026, "week": 5, "gameday": "2026-10-11", "home_pred": 24.694000598155213, "away_pred": 22.96451703383854, "total_pred": 47.65851763199375, "market_total": 43.5, "gap": 4.158517631993753 }, { "game": "SF @ SEA", "home_team": "SEA", "away_team": "SF", "season": 2026, "week": 5, "gameday": "2026-10-11", "home_pred": 24.69221124849824, "away_pred": 25.25058812930541, "total_pred": 49.94279937780364, "market_total": 46.0, "gap": 3.942799377803638 } ], "prop_watch": [ { "game": "San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks", "player": "Brock Purdy", "market_std": "pass_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 31.5, "price": -107, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "mu": 24.1276514106, "model_prob": 0.98, "consensus_prob": 0.4897419064, "ev_per_100": 89.5887850467, "model_status": "Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated" }, { "game": "Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams", "player": "Josh Allen", "market_std": "pass_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 32.5, "price": -119, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "mu": 25.8381059259, "model_prob": 0.98, "consensus_prob": 0.5113021468, "ev_per_100": 80.3529411765, "model_status": "Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated" }, { "game": "Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams", "player": "Matthew Stafford", "market_std": "pass_attempts", "name": "over", "point": 35.5, "price": -185, "bookmaker": "betmgm", "mu": 44.159001593, "model_prob": 0.98, "consensus_prob": 0.6040291768, "ev_per_100": 50.972972973, "model_status": "Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated" }, { "game": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys", "player": "Jalon Daniels", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "under", "point": 0.5, "price": 185, "bookmaker": "bovada", "mu": 0.477, "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.3330844207, "ev_per_100": 42.5, "model_status": "Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated" }, { "game": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys", "player": "Dak Prescott", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "under", "point": 1.5, "price": 170, "bookmaker": "bovada", "mu": 2.092, "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.3493048545, "ev_per_100": 35.0, "model_status": "Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated" } ] }, "published_at": "2026-10-07T16:52:24.905742+00:00" }, "tickets": [ { "stat_game": "2026_04_NYJ_CHI", "player": "Braelon Allen", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "under", "point": 55.5, "price": -114, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.98, "consensus_prob": 0.5, "ev_per_100": 83.9649122807, "actual": 59.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LAC_SEA", "player": "Justin Herbert", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "under", "point": 0.5, "price": 201, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.3161222339, "ev_per_100": 50.5, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LA_PHI", "player": "Jalen Hurts", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": 192, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.3289914101, "ev_per_100": 46.0, "actual": 2.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.92, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_GB_TB", "player": "Jalon Daniels", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "under", "point": 0.5, "price": 158, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5578947368, "consensus_prob": 0.3801255732, "ev_per_100": 43.9368421053, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_ATL_NO", "player": "Noah Fant", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 2.5, "price": 150, "bookmaker": "betrivers", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.4036465317, "ev_per_100": 36.8932038835, "actual": null, "outcome": null, "units": null, "grading_status": "no matching game/player result" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_PIT_CLE", "player": "Roman Wilson", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 2.5, "price": 145, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.5420560748, "consensus_prob": 0.3887399464, "ev_per_100": 32.8037383178, "actual": 3.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.45, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_PIT_CLE", "player": "Aaron Rodgers", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": 165, "bookmaker": "betmgm", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.3612034978, "ev_per_100": 32.5, "actual": 3.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.65, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_NYJ_CHI", "player": "Geno Smith", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": 162, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.3569834895, "ev_per_100": 31.0, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DET_CAR", "player": "Tetairoa McMillan", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 4.5, "price": 125, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.5789473684, "consensus_prob": 0.4292656391, "ev_per_100": 30.2631578947, "actual": 14.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_NYJ_CHI", "player": "Cole Kmet", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": 182, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.4579439252, "consensus_prob": 0.3317535545, "ev_per_100": 29.1401869159, "actual": 2.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.82, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_PIT_CLE", "player": "Deshaun Watson", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "under", "point": 0.5, "price": 175, "bookmaker": "betrivers", "model_prob": 0.4666666667, "consensus_prob": 0.3548677772, "ev_per_100": 28.3333333333, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LAC_SEA", "player": "Quentin Johnston", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 2.5, "price": 134, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.409005941, "ev_per_100": 28.132038835, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.34, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_NE_BUF", "player": "TreVeyon Henderson", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": 134, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.5408805031, "consensus_prob": 0.4051125583, "ev_per_100": 26.5660377358, "actual": 0.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LA_PHI", "player": "Jalen Hurts", "market_std": "pass_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 29.5, "price": -102, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.6363636364, "consensus_prob": 0.478232912, "ev_per_100": 26.0249554367, "actual": 27.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.9803921569, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_TEN_BAL", "player": "Cam Ward", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "under", "point": 0.5, "price": 152, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.3796426182, "ev_per_100": 26.0, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_JAX_CIN", "player": "Joe Burrow", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "under", "point": 1.5, "price": 151, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.3784779051, "ev_per_100": 25.5, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.51, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_ATL_NO", "player": "Alvin Kamara", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 3.5, "price": 132, "bookmaker": "betrivers", "model_prob": 0.5408805031, "consensus_prob": 0.4138449962, "ev_per_100": 25.4842767296, "actual": 5.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.32, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LA_PHI", "player": "Dontayvion Wicks", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 2.5, "price": 131, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5420560748, "consensus_prob": 0.4090261501, "ev_per_100": 25.214953271, "actual": 3.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_IND_WAS", "player": "Marcus Mariota", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": 150, "bookmaker": "betrivers", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.4017531045, "ev_per_100": 25.0, "actual": 0.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_ATL_NO", "player": "Devaughn Vele", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 3.5, "price": 128, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.4095398699, "ev_per_100": 24.8466019417, "actual": 6.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_GB_TB", "player": "Jalon Daniels", "market_std": "pass_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 27.5, "price": -106, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.6363636364, "consensus_prob": 0.4854288093, "ev_per_100": 23.6706689537, "actual": 27.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.9433962264, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DEN_SF", "player": "Bo Nix", "market_std": "pass_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 34.5, "price": -106, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.6363636364, "consensus_prob": 0.4948242475, "ev_per_100": 23.6706689537, "actual": 42.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_IND_WAS", "player": "Daniel Jones", "market_std": "pass_attempts", "name": "over", "point": 31.5, "price": -107, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.6363636364, "consensus_prob": 0.4898102244, "ev_per_100": 23.1096006797, "actual": 34.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.9345794393, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DET_CAR", "player": "Amon-Ra St. Brown", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 6.5, "price": 112, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5789473684, "consensus_prob": 0.4476062855, "ev_per_100": 22.7368421053, "actual": 8.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_ATL_NO", "player": "Austin Hooper", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": 124, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.4282584158, "ev_per_100": 22.6563106796, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_PIT_CLE", "player": "Jerry Jeudy", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": 124, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.4368658399, "ev_per_100": 22.6563106796, "actual": 3.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.24, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_NYJ_CHI", "player": "Tyson Bagent", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "under", "point": 1.5, "price": -158, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.75, "consensus_prob": 0.5717415842, "ev_per_100": 22.4683544304, "actual": 0.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.6329113924, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_NE_BUF", "player": "Josh Allen", "market_std": "pass_attempts", "name": "over", "point": 29.5, "price": -109, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.6363636364, "consensus_prob": 0.4916850289, "ev_per_100": 22.0183486239, "actual": 33.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.9174311927, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_KC_LV", "player": "Kirk Cousins", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": 128, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5333333333, "consensus_prob": 0.4196504457, "ev_per_100": 21.6, "actual": 2.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.28, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DET_CAR", "player": "Jared Goff", "market_std": "pass_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 34.5, "price": -110, "bookmaker": "bovada", "model_prob": 0.6363636364, "consensus_prob": 0.4958445876, "ev_per_100": 21.4876033058, "actual": 52.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_IND_WAS", "player": "Stefon Diggs", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 4.5, "price": 121, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.426742532, "ev_per_100": 21.013592233, "actual": 5.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.21, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_PIT_CLE", "player": "KC Concepcion", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 3.5, "price": 120, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.4366812227, "ev_per_100": 20.4660194175, "actual": 5.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_NYJ_CHI", "player": "D'Andre Swift", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 2.5, "price": 140, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.3896103896, "ev_per_100": 20.0, "actual": 2.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_TEN_BAL", "player": "Gunnar Helm", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 2.5, "price": 118, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.4373408273, "ev_per_100": 19.3708737864, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.18, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DET_CAR", "player": "Jared Goff", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "under", "point": 1.5, "price": 147, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.4821981424, "consensus_prob": 0.3838517538, "ev_per_100": 19.1029411765, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.47, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_GB_TB", "player": "Tucker Kraft", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 3.5, "price": 117, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.4451682953, "ev_per_100": 18.8233009709, "actual": 6.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_GB_TB", "player": "Christian Watson", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 4.5, "price": 116, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.4368658399, "ev_per_100": 18.2757281553, "actual": 3.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.16, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LAC_SEA", "player": "Cooper Kupp", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 2.5, "price": 115, "bookmaker": "bovada", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.439833492, "ev_per_100": 17.7281553398, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LA_PHI", "player": "DeVonta Smith", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 5.5, "price": 116, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5420560748, "consensus_prob": 0.4564539116, "ev_per_100": 17.0841121495, "actual": null, "outcome": null, "units": null, "grading_status": "no matching game/player result" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DAL_HOU", "player": "Dak Prescott", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "over", "point": 3.5, "price": 130, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.506993007, "consensus_prob": 0.4100752573, "ev_per_100": 16.6083916084, "actual": 2.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_NE_BUF", "player": "Khalil Shakir", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 3.5, "price": 112, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.446563288, "ev_per_100": 16.0854368932, "actual": 7.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DEN_SF", "player": "Brock Purdy", "market_std": "pass_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 31.5, "price": -122, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.6363636364, "consensus_prob": 0.5180572558, "ev_per_100": 15.7973174367, "actual": 30.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.8196721311, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LAC_SEA", "player": "Sam Darnold", "market_std": "pass_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 30.5, "price": -123, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.6363636364, "consensus_prob": 0.5203045685, "ev_per_100": 15.3732446415, "actual": 22.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.8130081301, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LAC_SEA", "player": "Justin Herbert", "market_std": "pass_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 30.5, "price": -126, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.6363636364, "consensus_prob": 0.5306122449, "ev_per_100": 14.1414141414, "actual": 31.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_ATL_NO", "player": "Kyle Pitts", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 2.5, "price": 108, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.4652655222, "ev_per_100": 13.8951456311, "actual": 3.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_GB_TB", "player": "Emeka Egbuka", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 3.5, "price": 110, "bookmaker": "betrivers", "model_prob": 0.5408805031, "consensus_prob": 0.4537429043, "ev_per_100": 13.5849056604, "actual": 2.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_JAX_CIN", "player": "Chase Brown", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 16.5, "price": -110, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5945945946, "consensus_prob": 0.5009845157, "ev_per_100": 13.5135135135, "actual": 9.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.9090909091, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_NE_BUF", "player": "Josh Allen", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "under", "point": 1.5, "price": 126, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.4214658001, "ev_per_100": 13.0, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.26, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_JAX_CIN", "player": "Tee Higgins", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 4.5, "price": 106, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.4693294165, "ev_per_100": 12.8, "actual": 11.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.06, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_PIT_CLE", "player": "Jaylen Warren", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 15.5, "price": -112, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.5945945946, "consensus_prob": 0.4974136082, "ev_per_100": 12.5482625483, "actual": 17.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_MIA_MIN", "player": "Malik Washington", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 3.5, "price": 108, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5408805031, "consensus_prob": 0.4489255225, "ev_per_100": 12.5031446541, "actual": 5.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_PIT_CLE", "player": "Darnell Washington", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 1.5, "price": 148, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.4524271845, "consensus_prob": 0.3845514501, "ev_per_100": 12.2019417476, "actual": 3.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_NYJ_CHI", "player": "Rome Odunze", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 2.5, "price": 104, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.4581151832, "ev_per_100": 11.7048543689, "actual": 6.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.04, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LAC_SEA", "player": "Jaxon Smith-Njigba", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 6.5, "price": 106, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5420560748, "consensus_prob": 0.4586618906, "ev_per_100": 11.6635514019, "actual": 5.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.06, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_ARI_NYG", "player": "Cam Skattebo", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 16.5, "price": 102, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5526315789, "consensus_prob": 0.466910272, "ev_per_100": 11.6315789474, "actual": 18.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DAL_HOU", "player": "Javonte Williams", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 2.5, "price": 106, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5408805031, "consensus_prob": 0.4592085979, "ev_per_100": 11.4213836478, "actual": 5.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_IND_WAS", "player": "Jonathan Taylor", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 19.5, "price": 102, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.55, "consensus_prob": 0.4660828861, "ev_per_100": 11.1, "actual": 20.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_KC_LV", "player": "Kenneth Walker", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 18.5, "price": 101, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5526315789, "consensus_prob": 0.4698318497, "ev_per_100": 11.0789473684, "actual": 22.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_IND_WAS", "player": "Jonathan Taylor", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 2.5, "price": 105, "bookmaker": "betmgm", "model_prob": 0.5408805031, "consensus_prob": 0.464037123, "ev_per_100": 10.8805031447, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.05, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_IND_WAS", "player": "Tyler Warren", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 5.5, "price": 105, "bookmaker": "betmgm", "model_prob": 0.5408805031, "consensus_prob": 0.4693877551, "ev_per_100": 10.8805031447, "actual": 5.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_PIT_CLE", "player": "DK Metcalf", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 3.5, "price": 105, "bookmaker": "bovada", "model_prob": 0.5408805031, "consensus_prob": 0.4653465347, "ev_per_100": 10.8805031447, "actual": 5.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_PIT_CLE", "player": "Raheim Sanders", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 1.5, "price": 145, "bookmaker": "betmgm", "model_prob": 0.4524271845, "consensus_prob": 0.387017925, "ev_per_100": 10.8446601942, "actual": 2.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_PIT_CLE", "player": "Aaron Rodgers", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": -104, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.4809318812, "ev_per_100": 10.7811877242, "actual": 0.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_PIT_CLE", "player": "Quinshon Judkins", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 2.5, "price": 141, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.4591194969, "consensus_prob": 0.3952119644, "ev_per_100": 10.6477987421, "actual": 6.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.41, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_JAX_CIN", "player": "Bhayshul Tuten", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 12.5, "price": 100, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5526315789, "consensus_prob": 0.4719334719, "ev_per_100": 10.5263157895, "actual": 17.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_MIA_MIN", "player": "Jaylen Wright", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": 162, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.4210526316, "consensus_prob": 0.3569834895, "ev_per_100": 10.3157894737, "actual": 0.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DAL_HOU", "player": "Dak Prescott", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "over", "point": 10.5, "price": -105, "bookmaker": "fanatics", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.5101214575, "ev_per_100": 10.2640019738, "actual": 7.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_IND_WAS", "player": "Marcus Mariota", "market_std": "pass_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 30.5, "price": -105, "bookmaker": "bovada", "model_prob": 0.5625, "consensus_prob": 0.4844887492, "ev_per_100": 9.8214285714, "actual": 4.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.9523809524, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_TEN_BAL", "player": "Cam Ward", "market_std": "pass_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 33.5, "price": -105, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5625, "consensus_prob": 0.4833368048, "ev_per_100": 9.8214285714, "actual": 31.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.9523809524, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_NE_BUF", "player": "DeMario Douglas", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 2.5, "price": 102, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5420560748, "consensus_prob": 0.4731906857, "ev_per_100": 9.4953271028, "actual": 2.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.02, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_ATL_NO", "player": "Michael Penix", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": 134, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.4666666667, "consensus_prob": 0.4072097318, "ev_per_100": 9.2, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_NE_BUF", "player": "Keon Coleman", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": -102, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.4752652616, "ev_per_100": 8.4408909195, "actual": 6.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.9803921569, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DET_CAR", "player": "Jahmyr Gibbs", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 4.5, "price": 100, "bookmaker": "bovada", "model_prob": 0.5420560748, "consensus_prob": 0.4729414276, "ev_per_100": 8.4112149533, "actual": 4.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_IND_WAS", "player": "Daniel Jones", "market_std": "pass_completions", "name": "over", "point": 20.5, "price": 100, "bookmaker": "betrivers", "model_prob": 0.5416666667, "consensus_prob": 0.5241855483, "ev_per_100": 8.3333333333, "actual": 19.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LAC_SEA", "player": "Emanuel Wilson", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "under", "point": 41.5, "price": -109, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.4898785425, "ev_per_100": 8.2901554404, "actual": 81.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DEN_SF", "player": "Bo Nix", "market_std": "pass_completions", "name": "under", "point": 21.5, "price": -101, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5428571429, "consensus_prob": 0.485472601, "ev_per_100": 8.0339462518, "actual": 25.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_GB_TB", "player": "Jordan Love", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": 116, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.4563455526, "ev_per_100": 8.0, "actual": 2.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.16, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_TEN_BAL", "player": "Lamar Jackson", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "under", "point": 1.5, "price": 116, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.4599960684, "ev_per_100": 8.0, "actual": 2.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_GB_TB", "player": "Kaleb Johnson", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "under", "point": 29.5, "price": -110, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.4969046636, "ev_per_100": 7.8191238813, "actual": 42.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_ARI_NYG", "player": "Cam Skattebo", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "under", "point": 65.5, "price": -110, "bookmaker": "fanatics", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.4938863293, "ev_per_100": 7.8191238813, "actual": 58.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.9090909091, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DEN_SF", "player": "Bo Nix", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": 115, "bookmaker": "betrivers", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.4432111956, "ev_per_100": 7.5, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_JAX_CIN", "player": "Trevor Lawrence", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "under", "point": 1.5, "price": 115, "bookmaker": "bovada", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.4472667035, "ev_per_100": 7.5, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.15, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DEN_SF", "player": "Jaylen Waddle", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 4.5, "price": -117, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5789473684, "consensus_prob": 0.5395768025, "ev_per_100": 7.3774179037, "actual": 5.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_KC_LV", "player": "Kenneth Walker", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "under", "point": 88.5, "price": -111, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.4948402543, "ev_per_100": 7.3565793773, "actual": 177.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_IND_WAS", "player": "Jacory Croskey-Merritt", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "under", "point": 55.5, "price": -111, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.4978941162, "ev_per_100": 7.3565793773, "actual": 15.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.9009009009, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_GB_TB", "player": "Bucky Irving", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "under", "point": 61.5, "price": -111, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.4978941162, "ev_per_100": 7.3565793773, "actual": 61.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.9009009009, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DEN_SF", "player": "Christian McCaffrey", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 4.5, "price": -102, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.5420560748, "consensus_prob": 0.4761410788, "ev_per_100": 7.3483599047, "actual": 3.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.9803921569, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LAC_SEA", "player": "AJ Barner", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 3.5, "price": 137, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.4524271845, "consensus_prob": 0.4073395221, "ev_per_100": 7.2252427184, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LA_PHI", "player": "Makai Lemon", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 2.5, "price": 134, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.4579439252, "consensus_prob": 0.419857152, "ev_per_100": 7.1588785047, "actual": 3.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DEN_SF", "player": "Brock Purdy", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "over", "point": 4.5, "price": 117, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.4927536232, "consensus_prob": 0.435063687, "ev_per_100": 6.9275362319, "actual": 10.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.17, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DAL_HOU", "player": "Woody Marks", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "under", "point": 36.5, "price": -112, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.5, "ev_per_100": 6.9022945966, "actual": 22.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.8928571429, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_IND_WAS", "player": "Jonathan Taylor", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "under", "point": 88.5, "price": -112, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.5, "ev_per_100": 6.9022945966, "actual": 95.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_IND_WAS", "player": "Daniel Jones", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "over", "point": 3.5, "price": 110, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.506993007, "consensus_prob": 0.4494382022, "ev_per_100": 6.4685314685, "actual": 4.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.1, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LA_PHI", "player": "Jalen Hurts", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "over", "point": 23.5, "price": -113, "bookmaker": "betrivers", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.4949766919, "ev_per_100": 6.4560502545, "actual": 18.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_JAX_CIN", "player": "Bhayshul Tuten", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "under", "point": 54.5, "price": -113, "bookmaker": "betrivers", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.4949766919, "ev_per_100": 6.4560502545, "actual": 73.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DET_CAR", "player": "Jahmyr Gibbs", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "under", "point": 96.5, "price": -113, "bookmaker": "betrivers", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.4974883459, "ev_per_100": 6.4560502545, "actual": 46.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.8849557522, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DAL_HOU", "player": "Javonte Williams", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 15.5, "price": -108, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5526315789, "consensus_prob": 0.4948011978, "ev_per_100": 6.432748538, "actual": 19.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DET_CAR", "player": "Isaac TeSlaa", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": -106, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.4878473601, "ev_per_100": 6.4150943396, "actual": 4.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.9433962264, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_GB_TB", "player": "Bucky Irving", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 15.5, "price": -127, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5945945946, "consensus_prob": 0.5268295703, "ev_per_100": 6.2779314748, "actual": 16.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_GB_TB", "player": "Matthew Golden", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 4.5, "price": -120, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5789473684, "consensus_prob": 0.5145711907, "ev_per_100": 6.1403508772, "actual": 3.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.8333333333, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DAL_HOU", "player": "C.J. Stroud", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "over", "point": 11.5, "price": -114, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.5, "ev_per_100": 6.0176347605, "actual": 12.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.8771929825, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LAC_SEA", "player": "Jadarian Price", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "under", "point": 40.5, "price": -114, "bookmaker": "betrivers", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.5057620984, "ev_per_100": 6.0176347605, "actual": null, "outcome": null, "units": null, "grading_status": "no matching game/player result" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_ATL_NO", "player": "Tyler Shough", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "over", "point": 16.5, "price": -114, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.5030135005, "ev_per_100": 6.0176347605, "actual": 5.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_PIT_CLE", "player": "Raheim Sanders", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "over", "point": 5.5, "price": -114, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.5102580936, "ev_per_100": 6.0176347605, "actual": 9.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.8771929825, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_ATL_NO", "player": "Michael Penix", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "over", "point": 5.5, "price": -114, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.5, "ev_per_100": 6.0176347605, "actual": -2.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DEN_SF", "player": "Brock Purdy", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "over", "point": 16.5, "price": -114, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.5, "ev_per_100": 6.0176347605, "actual": 29.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.8771929825, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_PIT_CLE", "player": "Jaylen Warren", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "under", "point": 71.5, "price": -114, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.5, "ev_per_100": 6.0176347605, "actual": 93.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_ARI_NYG", "player": "Jacoby Brissett", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": 112, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.4456393636, "ev_per_100": 6.0, "actual": 2.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.12, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_PIT_CLE", "player": "Quinshon Judkins", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 16.5, "price": -109, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5526315789, "consensus_prob": 0.4926759856, "ev_per_100": 5.9633027523, "actual": 17.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_TEN_BAL", "player": "Mark Andrews", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 4.5, "price": 134, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.4524271845, "consensus_prob": 0.4057711309, "ev_per_100": 5.867961165, "actual": 5.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.34, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_ATL_NO", "player": "Juwan Johnson", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 3.5, "price": -108, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.5, "ev_per_100": 5.4584681769, "actual": 6.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.9259259259, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_NYJ_CHI", "player": "Kalif Raymond", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 3.5, "price": -108, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.4858161777, "ev_per_100": 5.4584681769, "actual": 2.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_GB_TB", "player": "Cade Otton", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 2.5, "price": 133, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.4524271845, "consensus_prob": 0.4048220128, "ev_per_100": 5.4155339806, "actual": 4.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_NE_BUF", "player": "Hunter Henry", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 3.5, "price": -122, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5789473684, "consensus_prob": 0.5359579549, "ev_per_100": 5.3494391717, "actual": 5.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_IND_WAS", "player": "Keenan Allen", "market_std": "recv_yds", "name": "over", "point": 37.5, "price": 110, "bookmaker": "betmgm", "model_prob": 0.5010141988, "consensus_prob": 0.4424778761, "ev_per_100": 5.2129817444, "actual": null, "outcome": null, "units": null, "grading_status": "no matching game/player result" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_NE_BUF", "player": "Mack Hollins", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 3.5, "price": -109, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.4999442372, "ev_per_100": 4.9933196758, "actual": 3.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DAL_HOU", "player": "Javonte Williams", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "under", "point": 63.5, "price": -117, "bookmaker": "betrivers", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.5030135005, "ev_per_100": 4.7473539702, "actual": 62.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.8547008547, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_TEN_BAL", "player": "Lamar Jackson", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "over", "point": 7.5, "price": 112, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.4927536232, "consensus_prob": 0.4449245642, "ev_per_100": 4.4637681159, "actual": 2.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_JAX_CIN", "player": "Dohnte Meyers", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 2.5, "price": 128, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.4579439252, "consensus_prob": 0.4344048653, "ev_per_100": 4.4112149533, "actual": 7.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.28, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DAL_HOU", "player": "Woody Marks", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 1.5, "price": 130, "bookmaker": "bovada", "model_prob": 0.4524271845, "consensus_prob": 0.4183737339, "ev_per_100": 4.0582524272, "actual": 0.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.3, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_NE_BUF", "player": "Drake Maye", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": 135, "bookmaker": "betrivers", "model_prob": 0.4421052632, "consensus_prob": 0.416502947, "ev_per_100": 3.8947368421, "actual": 3.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.35, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_NE_BUF", "player": "Dalton Kincaid", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 4.5, "price": -112, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.5091624515, "ev_per_100": 3.6477115118, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.8928571429, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_GB_TB", "player": "Chris Godwin", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 2.5, "price": -127, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.5789473684, "consensus_prob": 0.528157683, "ev_per_100": 3.4811438044, "actual": 6.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.7874015748, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_PIT_CLE", "player": "Harold Fannin", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 4.5, "price": -110, "bookmaker": "bovada", "model_prob": 0.5408805031, "consensus_prob": 0.4948402543, "ev_per_100": 3.2590051458, "actual": 3.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DET_CAR", "player": "Sam LaPorta", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 4.5, "price": -113, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.5025798729, "ev_per_100": 3.2150528396, "actual": 8.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_ATL_NO", "player": "Chris Olave", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 7.5, "price": 128, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.4524271845, "consensus_prob": 0.4146110923, "ev_per_100": 3.1533980583, "actual": 8.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.28, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_ATL_NO", "player": "Tyler Shough", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "under", "point": 1.5, "price": 121, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.4666666667, "consensus_prob": 0.4342461553, "ev_per_100": 3.1333333333, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.21, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DET_CAR", "player": "Bryce Young", "market_std": "pass_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 35.5, "price": -120, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.5625, "consensus_prob": 0.5203045685, "ev_per_100": 3.125, "actual": 41.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DEN_SF", "player": "Pat Bryant", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 2.5, "price": 125, "bookmaker": "betrivers", "model_prob": 0.4579439252, "consensus_prob": 0.4498870615, "ev_per_100": 3.0373831776, "actual": 3.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.25, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LAC_SEA", "player": "Ladd McConkey", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 3.5, "price": 124, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.4591194969, "consensus_prob": 0.4221322, "ev_per_100": 2.8427672956, "actual": 0.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.24, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DET_CAR", "player": "Jahmyr Gibbs", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 19.5, "price": -115, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.55, "consensus_prob": 0.5036253744, "ev_per_100": 2.8260869565, "actual": 15.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.8695652174, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_ATL_NO", "player": "Bijan Robinson", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 4.5, "price": -114, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.5102580936, "ev_per_100": 2.7899846704, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.8771929825, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_TEN_BAL", "player": "Elic Ayomanor", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 1.5, "price": 127, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.4524271845, "consensus_prob": 0.4307128807, "ev_per_100": 2.7009708738, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.27, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LAC_SEA", "player": "Sam Darnold", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "under", "point": 1.5, "price": 105, "bookmaker": "bovada", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.4681457358, "ev_per_100": 2.5, "actual": 2.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_NE_BUF", "player": "Drake Maye", "market_std": "pass_completions", "name": "under", "point": 19.5, "price": 105, "bookmaker": "bovada", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.4648542048, "ev_per_100": 2.5, "actual": 22.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_NE_BUF", "player": "Josh Allen", "market_std": "pass_completions", "name": "over", "point": 20.5, "price": 105, "bookmaker": "bovada", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.4628151931, "ev_per_100": 2.5, "actual": 23.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.05, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LA_PHI", "player": "Matthew Stafford", "market_std": "pass_completions", "name": "over", "point": 21.5, "price": 105, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.4626307953, "ev_per_100": 2.5, "actual": 32.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.05, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DAL_HOU", "player": "C.J. Stroud", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "over", "point": 3.5, "price": 102, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.506993007, "consensus_prob": 0.466910272, "ev_per_100": 2.4125874126, "actual": 2.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_TEN_BAL", "player": "Lamar Jackson", "market_std": "pass_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 27.5, "price": -122, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5625, "consensus_prob": 0.5175910596, "ev_per_100": 2.356557377, "actual": 20.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.8196721311, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DEN_SF", "player": "Brock Purdy", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": -109, "bookmaker": "betrivers", "model_prob": 0.5333333333, "consensus_prob": 0.5015476682, "ev_per_100": 2.2629969419, "actual": 2.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.9174311927, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DET_CAR", "player": "Bryce Young", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 2.5, "price": 108, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.4915254237, "consensus_prob": 0.4532987963, "ev_per_100": 2.2372881356, "actual": 3.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_GB_TB", "player": "Bucky Irving", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 2.5, "price": -113, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5420560748, "consensus_prob": 0.5, "ev_per_100": 2.1751716153, "actual": 0.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.8849557522, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_JAX_CIN", "player": "Mike Gesicki", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 2.5, "price": -116, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.5166587144, "ev_per_100": 1.9618346167, "actual": 3.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.8620689655, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LA_PHI", "player": "Jalen Hurts", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 5.5, "price": 107, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.4915254237, "consensus_prob": 0.4648210692, "ev_per_100": 1.7457627119, "actual": 5.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.07, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_GB_TB", "player": "Jalon Daniels", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "over", "point": 7.5, "price": 107, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.4915254237, "consensus_prob": 0.4552526941, "ev_per_100": 1.7457627119, "actual": 8.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.07, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_GB_TB", "player": "Kaleb Johnson", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 8.5, "price": -119, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5526315789, "consensus_prob": 0.5124828361, "ev_per_100": 1.7027863777, "actual": 8.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.8403361345, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LA_PHI", "player": "Kyren Williams", "market_std": "rush_yds", "name": "over", "point": 55.5, "price": -125, "bookmaker": "fanatics", "model_prob": 0.5647668394, "consensus_prob": 0.5203045685, "ev_per_100": 1.6580310881, "actual": 80.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.8, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_ARI_NYG", "player": "Michael Wilson", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 4.5, "price": 121, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.4591194969, "consensus_prob": 0.426742532, "ev_per_100": 1.465408805, "actual": 7.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DEN_SF", "player": "Christian McCaffrey", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 15.5, "price": 100, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.506993007, "consensus_prob": 0.4818650132, "ev_per_100": 1.3986013986, "actual": 15.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DAL_HOU", "player": "Woody Marks", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "over", "point": 9.5, "price": 106, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.4915254237, "consensus_prob": 0.4661949171, "ev_per_100": 1.2542372881, "actual": 6.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_PIT_CLE", "player": "Denzel Boston", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 2.5, "price": 120, "bookmaker": "betmgm", "model_prob": 0.4591194969, "consensus_prob": 0.4291044776, "ev_per_100": 1.0062893082, "actual": 4.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DET_CAR", "player": "Chuba Hubbard", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 2.5, "price": 120, "bookmaker": "bovada", "model_prob": 0.4591194969, "consensus_prob": 0.4283667248, "ev_per_100": 1.0062893082, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.2, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LA_PHI", "player": "Jalen Hurts", "market_std": "pass_completions", "name": "over", "point": 19.5, "price": 102, "bookmaker": "betrivers", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": null, "ev_per_100": 1.0, "actual": 12.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DET_CAR", "player": "Bryce Young", "market_std": "pass_completions", "name": "over", "point": 21.5, "price": 102, "bookmaker": "betrivers", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.5, "ev_per_100": 1.0, "actual": 29.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.02, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_JAX_CIN", "player": "Joe Burrow", "market_std": "pass_completions", "name": "over", "point": 24.5, "price": 102, "bookmaker": "betrivers", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": null, "ev_per_100": 1.0, "actual": 39.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.02, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_IND_WAS", "player": "Marcus Mariota", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "over", "point": 5.5, "price": 102, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.4752355075, "ev_per_100": 1.0, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_LA_PHI", "player": "Davante Adams", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 4.5, "price": 123, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.4524271845, "consensus_prob": 0.4233170266, "ev_per_100": 0.8912621359, "actual": 4.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.23, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_PIT_CLE", "player": "Jaylen Warren", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 3.5, "price": -135, "bookmaker": "betmgm", "model_prob": 0.5789473684, "consensus_prob": 0.5649148073, "ev_per_100": 0.7797270955, "actual": 3.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.7407407407, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_NE_BUF", "player": "Josh Allen", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 7.5, "price": 105, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.4915254237, "consensus_prob": 0.4748689874, "ev_per_100": 0.7627118644, "actual": 5.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.05, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_NE_BUF", "player": "Romeo Doubs", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 3.5, "price": 120, "bookmaker": "bovada", "model_prob": 0.4579439252, "consensus_prob": 0.4299086792, "ev_per_100": 0.7476635514, "actual": 6.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.2, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_TEN_BAL", "player": "Rashod Bateman", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 2.5, "price": 119, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.4591194969, "consensus_prob": 0.431915919, "ev_per_100": 0.5471698113, "actual": 2.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.19, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DAL_HOU", "player": "Dak Prescott", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "under", "point": 1.5, "price": 101, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.4719334719, "ev_per_100": 0.5, "actual": 1.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.01, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_ATL_NO", "player": "Tyler Shough", "market_std": "pass_completions", "name": "over", "point": 23.5, "price": 101, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.4698318497, "ev_per_100": 0.5, "actual": 30.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.01, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_TEN_BAL", "player": "Wan'Dale Robinson", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "under", "point": 3.5, "price": 122, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.4524271845, "consensus_prob": 0.4387434117, "ev_per_100": 0.4388349515, "actual": 3.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.22, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_IND_WAS", "player": "Josh Downs", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 5.5, "price": 122, "bookmaker": "fanduel", "model_prob": 0.4524271845, "consensus_prob": 0.4332755633, "ev_per_100": 0.4388349515, "actual": 3.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_DAL_HOU", "player": "David Montgomery", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 11.5, "price": -102, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.506993007, "consensus_prob": 0.48199592, "ev_per_100": 0.4044974633, "actual": 10.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.9803921569, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_NE_BUF", "player": "James Cook", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 17.5, "price": -102, "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "model_prob": 0.506993007, "consensus_prob": 0.4752652616, "ev_per_100": 0.4044974633, "actual": 12.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 0.9803921569, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_ARI_NYG", "player": "Trey McBride", "market_std": "recv_yds", "name": "under", "point": 65.5, "price": 100, "bookmaker": "fanatics", "model_prob": 0.5010141988, "consensus_prob": 0.4653465347, "ev_per_100": 0.2028397566, "actual": 31.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.0, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_TEN_BAL", "player": "Tony Pollard", "market_std": "rush_attempts", "name": "over", "point": 13.5, "price": 103, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "model_prob": 0.4927536232, "consensus_prob": 0.4648542048, "ev_per_100": 0.0289855072, "actual": 16.0, "outcome": "win", "units": 1.03, "grading_status": "graded" }, { "stat_game": "2026_04_JAX_CIN", "player": "Ja'Marr Chase", "market_std": "receptions", "name": "over", "point": 6.5, "price": -121, "bookmaker": "betrivers", "model_prob": 0.5475728155, "consensus_prob": 0.5236874601, "ev_per_100": 0.0112332504, "actual": 3.0, "outcome": "loss", "units": -1.0, "grading_status": "graded" } ], "games": [ { "game": "PIT @ CLE", "home_score": 27.0, "away_score": 24.0, "actual_total": 51.0, "market_total": 38.5, "total_pred": 41.5100302895, "total_line": 38.5, "model_pick": "over", "model_result": "win", "model_units": 0.9523809524 }, { "game": "IND @ WAS", "home_score": 13.0, "away_score": 30.0, "actual_total": 43.0, "market_total": 47.5, "total_pred": 45.4588193697, "total_line": 46.5, "model_pick": "under", "model_result": "win", "model_units": 0.9090909091 }, { "game": "TEN @ BAL", "home_score": 24.0, "away_score": 18.0, "actual_total": 42.0, "market_total": 43.5, "total_pred": 45.2842714054, "total_line": 42.5, "model_pick": "over", "model_result": "loss", "model_units": -1.0 }, { "game": "NE @ BUF", "home_score": 26.0, "away_score": 29.0, "actual_total": 55.0, "market_total": 48.5, "total_pred": 46.6859770742, "total_line": 49.5, "model_pick": "under", "model_result": "loss", "model_units": -1.0 }, { "game": "NYJ @ CHI", "home_score": 23.0, "away_score": 12.0, "actual_total": 35.0, "market_total": 43.0, "total_pred": 46.3447664153, "total_line": 43.5, "model_pick": "over", "model_result": "loss", "model_units": -1.0 }, { "game": "JAX @ CIN", "home_score": 17.0, "away_score": 22.0, "actual_total": 39.0, "market_total": 51.5, "total_pred": 51.7248529238, "total_line": 51.5, "model_pick": "over", "model_result": "loss", "model_units": -1.0 }, { "game": "DAL @ HOU", "home_score": 30.0, "away_score": 34.0, "actual_total": 64.0, "market_total": 48.0, "total_pred": 45.6064815525, "total_line": 48.5, "model_pick": "under", "model_result": "loss", "model_units": -1.0 }, { "game": "ARI @ NYG", "home_score": 36.0, "away_score": 24.0, "actual_total": 60.0, "market_total": 44.5, "total_pred": 43.8554112679, "total_line": 44.5, "model_pick": "under", "model_result": "loss", "model_units": -1.0 }, { "game": "LA @ PHI", "home_score": 20.0, "away_score": 24.0, "actual_total": 44.0, "market_total": 43.0, "total_pred": 44.1097289486, "total_line": 42.5, "model_pick": "over", "model_result": "win", "model_units": 0.9803921569 }, { "game": "GB @ TB", "home_score": 14.0, "away_score": 17.0, "actual_total": 31.0, "market_total": 39.5, "total_pred": 40.8933881176, "total_line": 38.5, "model_pick": "over", "model_result": "loss", "model_units": -1.0 }, { "game": "MIA @ MIN", "home_score": 15.0, "away_score": 10.0, "actual_total": 25.0, "market_total": 38.5, "total_pred": 40.8672898813, "total_line": 38.5, "model_pick": "over", "model_result": "loss", "model_units": -1.0 }, { "game": "KC @ LV", "home_score": 27.0, "away_score": 30.0, "actual_total": 57.0, "market_total": 47.5, "total_pred": 46.2482046923, "total_line": 47.5, "model_pick": "under", "model_result": "loss", "model_units": -1.0 }, { "game": "LAC @ SEA", "home_score": 30.0, "away_score": 23.0, "actual_total": 53.0, "market_total": 42.5, "total_pred": 41.0444450291, "total_line": 42.5, "model_pick": "under", "model_result": "loss", "model_units": -1.0 }, { "game": "DEN @ SF", "home_score": 24.0, "away_score": 14.0, "actual_total": 38.0, "market_total": 48.0, "total_pred": 47.9102348142, "total_line": 48.5, "model_pick": "under", "model_result": "win", "model_units": 0.9259259259 }, { "game": "DET @ CAR", "home_score": 32.0, "away_score": 26.0, "actual_total": 58.0, "market_total": 51.0, "total_pred": 46.1394285492, "total_line": 52.5, "model_pick": "under", "model_result": "loss", "model_units": -1.0 }, { "game": "ATL @ NO", "home_score": 24.0, "away_score": 45.0, "actual_total": 69.0, "market_total": 47.5, "total_pred": 44.380353306, "total_line": 47.5, "model_pick": "under", "model_result": "loss", "model_units": -1.0 } ], "preview": { "total_gaps": [ { "game": "DET @ ARI", "home_team": "ARI", "away_team": "DET", "season": 2026, "week": 5, "gameday": "2026-10-11", "home_pred": 22.037102664816203, "away_pred": 23.412661679953928, "total_pred": 45.44976434477013, "market_total": 54.5, "gap": -9.05023565522987 }, { "game": "PHI @ JAX", "home_team": "JAX", "away_team": "PHI", "season": 2026, "week": 5, "gameday": "2026-10-11", "home_pred": 27.26441802034331, "away_pred": 19.86943191152484, "total_pred": 47.13384993186816, "market_total": 42.0, "gap": 5.133849931868163 }, { "game": "BUF @ LA", "home_team": "LA", "away_team": "BUF", "season": 2026, "week": 5, "gameday": "2026-10-12", "home_pred": 23.99551992239065, "away_pred": 25.884263461475584, "total_pred": 49.87978338386623, "market_total": 54.5, "gap": -4.620216616133767 }, { "game": "BAL @ ATL", "home_team": "ATL", "away_team": "BAL", "season": 2026, "week": 5, "gameday": "2026-10-11", "home_pred": 24.694000598155213, "away_pred": 22.96451703383854, "total_pred": 47.65851763199375, "market_total": 43.5, "gap": 4.158517631993753 }, { "game": "SF @ SEA", "home_team": "SEA", "away_team": "SF", "season": 2026, "week": 5, "gameday": "2026-10-11", "home_pred": 24.69221124849824, "away_pred": 25.25058812930541, "total_pred": 49.94279937780364, "market_total": 46.0, "gap": 3.942799377803638 } ], "prop_watch": [ { "game": "San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks", "player": "Brock Purdy", "market_std": "pass_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 31.5, "price": -107, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "mu": 24.1276514106, "model_prob": 0.98, "consensus_prob": 0.4897419064, "ev_per_100": 89.5887850467, "model_status": "Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated" }, { "game": "Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams", "player": "Josh Allen", "market_std": "pass_attempts", "name": "under", "point": 32.5, "price": -119, "bookmaker": "draftkings", "mu": 25.8381059259, "model_prob": 0.98, "consensus_prob": 0.5113021468, "ev_per_100": 80.3529411765, "model_status": "Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated" }, { "game": "Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams", "player": "Matthew Stafford", "market_std": "pass_attempts", "name": "over", "point": 35.5, "price": -185, "bookmaker": "betmgm", "mu": 44.159001593, "model_prob": 0.98, "consensus_prob": 0.6040291768, "ev_per_100": 50.972972973, "model_status": "Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated" }, { "game": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys", "player": "Jalon Daniels", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "under", "point": 0.5, "price": 185, "bookmaker": "bovada", "mu": 0.477, "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.3330844207, "ev_per_100": 42.5, "model_status": "Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated" }, { "game": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys", "player": "Dak Prescott", "market_std": "pass_tds", "name": "under", "point": 1.5, "price": 170, "bookmaker": "bovada", "mu": 2.092, "model_prob": 0.5, "consensus_prob": 0.3493048545, "ev_per_100": 35.0, "model_status": "Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated" } ] } }