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Missing carry history and adjustment details weaken workload sensitivity analysis. Calibration reduces the raw probability; historical fitting alone does not validate this case.", "price_case": "49.5 at +155 is an alternate under, not Bovada\u2019s 59.5 central line. The supplied probability exceeds break-even, but exact-line coverage is one book; broader central quotes are not equivalent comparisons.", "context_case": "Context is unverified. No sourced role, injury, line, opponent or weather information is available.", "blocking_checks": [] }, "countercase": "Additional carries or better rushing efficiency could erase the projection\u2019s cushion.", "open_checks": [ "Review recent carry volume and backfield allocation.", "Check offensive-line changes and game-script assumptions.", "Reconfirm price and participation settlement rules." ], "evidence": [], "reviewed_at": "2026-10-04T11:10:46.645089Z", "offer_id": "c1e01c218ffd3a4f769a4a41", "forecast_id": "c5831d566a0778f628400a05", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "prompt_version": "sports-research-6", "evaluation_status": "prospective_shadow_only", "human_verified": false, "probability_adjustment": null, "evidence_asof": "2026-10-04T11:10:21.041242Z", "request_id": "e745f77e632b43a62b6dda6b" }, "review_sources": [ { "url": "https://www.vikings.com/news/dolphins-injury-report-week-4-2026-nfl-season", "title": "Final Vikings vs. Dolphins Injury Report for Week 4 of 2026: Justin 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"exposure_group": "NFL:c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0", "related_candidates": 40, "review_key": "[\"[\\\"NFL\\\",\\\"c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0\\\",\\\"Jacory Croskey-Merritt\\\",\\\"rush_yds\\\",\\\"under\\\",49.5,\\\"bovada\\\",\\\"2026-10-04T13:30:00Z\\\"]\",155,\"2026-10-04T11:06:31Z\",\"2026-10-04T11:07:12.928356+00:00\",0.5,0,0.3666469545,\"Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated\"]", "review_bet_key": "[\"NFL\",\"c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0\",\"Jacory Croskey-Merritt\",\"rush_yds\",\"under\",49.5,\"bovada\",\"2026-10-04T13:30:00Z\"]", "review_context": { "model": 0.5, "market": 0.3666469545, "books": 1, "push": 0, "breakEven": 0.3921568627450981, "probability_basis": "conditional_on_nonpush", "projected_quantity": 40.6205651588, "quantity_label": "Rushing yards", "market_median_line": 60, "validation": "Experimental; no established executable betting edge", "calibration": "Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated", "calibration_sample_size": null, "missing_model_detail": "Market-specific calibration sample size and sensitivity unavailable in this feed" }, "model_diagnostics": { "projection": null, "calibration": { "version": "nfl-calibration-trace-1", "artifact_sha256": "7c54bf5c44243e81b12bb6e72819cc44261a6c13e823cadd48cc848089163716", "fitted_season": 2025, "fitted_weeks": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14 ], "total_graded_rows": 12904, "market_sample_size": null, "tail_sample_size": null, "curve": "market_specific", "raw_probability": 0.615172, "fitted_raw_range": [ 0.000122, 0.999878 ], "outside_fitted_range": false, "endpoint_probabilities": [ 0.02, 0.98 ], "limitation": "Endpoint clipping is not held-out evidence; total rows are not independent games or tail sample size." }, "sigma": 30.32329, "model_minus_median_line": -19.379435, "offered_line_minus_median": -10.5, "offered_book_central_quote": { "bookmaker": "bovada", "name": "under", "point": 59.5, "price": -115, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:31Z", "prob_devig": 0.5 }, "offered_book_nearby_quotes": [ { "bookmaker": "bovada", "name": "under", "point": 49.5, "price": 155, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:31Z", "prob_devig": 0.366647 }, { "bookmaker": "bovada", "name": "under", "point": 54.5, "price": 115, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:31Z", "prob_devig": 0.436681 }, { "bookmaker": "bovada", "name": "under", "point": 59.5, "price": -115, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:31Z", "prob_devig": 0.5 }, { "bookmaker": "bovada", "name": "under", "point": 64.5, "price": -150, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:31Z", "prob_devig": 0.563319 } ], "other_book_central_quotes": [ { "bookmaker": "betmgm", "name": "under", "point": 59.5, "price": -115, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:36Z", "prob_devig": 0.5 }, { "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "name": "under", "point": 60.5, "price": -111, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:37Z", "prob_devig": 0.49484 }, { "bookmaker": "betrivers", "name": "under", "point": 63.5, "price": -117, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:35Z", "prob_devig": 0.503014 }, { "bookmaker": "draftkings", "name": "under", "point": 59.5, "price": -110, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:19Z", "prob_devig": 0.495788 }, { "bookmaker": "fanduel", "name": "under", "point": 60.5, "price": -113, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:30Z", "prob_devig": 0.5 } ], "other_books_at_exact_line": 0, "median_is_not_expected_mean": true, "raw_distribution_stress": null }, "candidate_id": "2972bc70e31f7377209748d6", "offer_id": "c1e01c218ffd3a4f769a4a41", "forecast_id": "c5831d566a0778f628400a05", "independent_probability": null, "final_probability": 0.5, "probability_basis": "conditional_on_nonpush_outcome_calibrated", "market_probability": 0.3666469545, "market_reference": "paired_consensus_includes_offer", "push_probability": 0, "estimated_ev": 0.275, "key_drivers": null, "model_limitations": "Historical player model with outcome calibration; not prospectively validated against executable prices. The independent_probability adapter field is unpopulated for NFL; final_probability is conditional on no push.", "lineup_assumption": "Active status and role require current reporting", "invalidation_conditions": [ "Price, line or forecast changes", "Game starts or quote expires", "Participation, starter or role differs from the model assumptions", "Unresolved settlement rules" ], "injury_context": { "status": "official_articles" }, "material_key": "2f3b59f290ef91b462bd4977725bda33939d79da3253f8de0ed241b55565710d", "evidence_key": "4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945", "research_priority": 3, "qualitative_review": { "candidate_id": "2972bc70e31f7377209748d6", "status": "needs_information", "assessment": { "verdict": "consider", "reason": "The supplied projection supports consideration at the offered price, without establishing a validated edge.", "model_case": "Projected rushing yards of 40.62 sit below 49.5. Missing carry history and adjustment details weaken workload sensitivity analysis. Calibration reduces the raw probability; historical fitting alone does not validate this case.", "price_case": "49.5 at +155 is an alternate under, not Bovada\u2019s 59.5 central line. The supplied probability exceeds break-even, but exact-line coverage is one book; broader central quotes are not equivalent comparisons.", "context_case": "Context is unverified. No sourced role, injury, line, opponent or weather information is available.", "blocking_checks": [] }, "countercase": "Additional carries or better rushing efficiency could erase the projection\u2019s cushion.", "open_checks": [ "Review recent carry volume and backfield allocation.", "Check offensive-line changes and game-script assumptions.", "Reconfirm price and participation settlement rules." ], "evidence": [], "reviewed_at": "2026-10-04T11:10:46.645089Z", "offer_id": "c1e01c218ffd3a4f769a4a41", "forecast_id": "c5831d566a0778f628400a05", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "prompt_version": "sports-research-6", "evaluation_status": "prospective_shadow_only", "human_verified": false, "probability_adjustment": null, "evidence_asof": "2026-10-04T11:10:21.041242Z", "request_id": "e745f77e632b43a62b6dda6b" } }, "review_matches_current": true, "exposure_group": "NFL:c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0", "related_candidates": 40, "card_rank_score": 0.0006821906541853442, "card_related_candidates": 5 }, { "event_id": "6da40e91a31110e51e84ba5671996deb", "commence_time": "2026-10-04T20:00:00Z", "home_team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "away_team": "San Diego Padres", "game": "San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers", "book": "draftkings", "book_label": "DraftKings", "market": "pitcher_outs", "market_label": "Pitcher outs", "player": "Michael King", "side": "Over", "line": 14.5, "price": -133, "book_probability": 0.5708154506437768, "quoted_at": "2026-10-04T11:07:07Z", "market_family": "props", "mlb_game_id": 849825, "game_type": "D", "phase": "Division Series", "home_pitcher": { "id": 701656, "fullName": "Logan Henderson", "link": "/api/v1/people/701656" }, "away_pitcher": { "id": 650633, "fullName": "Michael King", "link": "/api/v1/people/650633" }, "game_number": 1, "doubleheader": false, "if_necessary": false, "series_game": 2, "venue": "American Family Field", "lineup_status": "Awaiting published batting orders", "model_probability": 0.7233191170913098, "model_status": "Eligible experimental model pick", "stat_context": { "group": "pitching", "player_id": 650633, "innings": "185.0", "games": 32, "starts": 32, "strikeouts": 159, "k_per_nine": 7.735135135135135, "era": 3.210810810810811 }, "starter_roles": [], "starter_status": "Listed probable starter", "fair_probability": 0.533066132264529, "consensus_probability": 0.5351054952914531, "paired_books": 3, "best_price": true, "other_book_probability": 0.5367835168764958, "other_books": 2, "consensus_ev": null, "model_push_probability": 0, "model_mean": 16.14803053499766, "model_ev_pct": 26.716807731033974, "model_edge_pp": 15.2503666447533, "is_model_pick": true, "model_player_id": 650633, "model_mean_label": "Projected pitcher outs", "model_conditional_probability": 0.7233191170913098, "model_fair_price": -261, "model_inputs": { "Recent starter outings": 15, "Starter outs/start, last five": 17.29, "Starter strikeouts per batter faced": 0.219, "Opponent strikeouts per PA": 0.228 }, "model_version": "mlb-v1.0-ffe831160a077d5d-2026-10-03", "model_policy": "mlb-picks-v1", "model_input_through": "2026-10-03", "game_id": 849825, "forecast_at": "2026-10-04T11:07:09.074775Z", "score": 26.716807731033974, "review": "Consider", "url": "/mlb/picks.html?game=6da40e91a31110e51e84ba5671996deb&market=pitcher_outs&q=Michael+King", "sport": "MLB", "forecast_health": { "eligible": true, "tier": 1, "reasons": [] }, "qualitative_review": { "candidate_id": "25d64a53264d17d0741fb6fe", "status": "research_support", "assessment": { "verdict": "consider", "reason": "Recent volume supports reaching 15 outs without requiring an unusually long outing; no specific workload restriction is supplied.", "model_case": "King averaged 17.29 outs over his last five starts; the 16.15 projection clears 14.5. Fifteen sampled starts support expected starter usage, but postseason removal decisions could weaken the experimental estimate.", "price_case": "At -133, the supplied model exceeds break-even and the two-book reference. Coverage is limited; central versus alternate-line positioning is unspecified, and executable value is unvalidated.", "context_case": "Dated reporting establishes the planned start, not final clearance. Batting order, handedness, bullpen workload and park/weather remain unverified.", "blocking_checks": [] }, "countercase": "Early trouble or an aggressive postseason bullpen move could prevent five completed innings.", "open_checks": [ "Check published opposing order and any announced pitch limit.", "Recheck price freshness, park/weather and pitcher-outs settlement." ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "1600e1351aa22885b75e", "excerpt": "San Diego has its ace starting in Michael King.", "interpretation": "Supports the planned starting role, but not an unrestricted workload.", "kind": "pitcher", "direction": "supports", "represented_in": "unknown" } ], "reviewed_at": "2026-10-04T11:10:21.032851Z", "offer_id": "163b3c752cd2803a73c5473a", "forecast_id": "946a8491e66ac6b53709deca", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "prompt_version": "sports-research-6", "evaluation_status": "prospective_shadow_only", "human_verified": false, "probability_adjustment": null, "evidence_asof": "2026-10-04T11:09:54.578570Z", "request_id": "295ba169066c367619b68d4b" }, "review_sources": [ { "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/injuries/", "title": "MLB injury listings \u2014 San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers", "published_at": null, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T11:08:46.790055Z", "candidate_ids": [ "25d64a53264d17d0741fb6fe" ], "source_kind": "live_injury_table", "publication_basis": "unknown_live_snapshot", "injury_rows": [ { "player": "Grant Anderson", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/28838064/grant-anderson/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Biceps", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Brandon Woodruff", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2449977/brandon-woodruff/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Tue, Sep 29", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least 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"https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2000027/lucas-giolito/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Jeremiah Estrada", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2836849/jeremiah-estrada/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Walker Buehler", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2184468/walker-buehler/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sat, Oct 3", "injury": "Personal", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 6" }, { "player": "Casey Mize", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2942958/casey-mize/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sat, Sep 26", "injury": "Ankle", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 11" }, { "player": "Bryan Hoeing", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/28862328/bryan-hoeing/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Wed, Apr 22", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" }, { "player": "Miguel Andujar", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2167340/miguel-andujar/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "DH", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Wrist", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Luis Rengifo", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2772560/luis-rengifo/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "LF", "reported_update": "Tue, Sep 1", "injury": "Knee", "status": "Expected to be out until at least May 1" }, { 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4", "injury": "Biceps", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Brandon Woodruff", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2449977/brandon-woodruff/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Tue, Sep 29", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 11" }, { "player": "Quinn Priester", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/3117916/quinn-priester/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sun, Jul 19", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" }, { "player": "Brian Fitzpatrick", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/50043884/brian-fitzpatrick/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sat, Jul 4", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Aug 1" }, { "player": "Angel Zerpa", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2830145/angel-zerpa/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, May 31", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Jul 1" }, { "player": "Lucas Giolito", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2000027/lucas-giolito/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Jeremiah Estrada", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2836849/jeremiah-estrada/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Walker Buehler", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2184468/walker-buehler/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sat, Oct 3", "injury": "Personal", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 6" }, { "player": "Casey Mize", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2942958/casey-mize/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sat, Sep 26", "injury": "Ankle", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 11" }, { "player": "Bryan Hoeing", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/28862328/bryan-hoeing/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Wed, Apr 22", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" }, { "player": "Miguel Andujar", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2167340/miguel-andujar/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "DH", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Wrist", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Luis Rengifo", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2772560/luis-rengifo/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "LF", "reported_update": "Tue, Sep 1", "injury": "Knee", "status": "Expected to be out until at least May 1" }, { "player": "Ramon Laureano", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2224252/ramon-laureano/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "LF", "reported_update": "Fri, Jun 5", "injury": "Hip", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" } ], "missing_teams": [], "content_sha256": "1c6edeece29a8bd0db1e5248cc59e1370187bfc57c75c8cbcca1a7efde8ae472", "source_id": "678ad4867d2322d0c14f" }, { "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/injuries/", "title": "MLB injury listings \u2014 San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers", "published_at": null, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T11:08:46.790055Z", "candidate_ids": [ "b1afd4ec0d38d75093bbfef6" ], "source_kind": "live_injury_table", "publication_basis": "unknown_live_snapshot", "injury_rows": [ { "player": "Grant Anderson", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/28838064/grant-anderson/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Biceps", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Brandon Woodruff", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2449977/brandon-woodruff/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Tue, Sep 29", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 11" }, { "player": "Quinn Priester", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/3117916/quinn-priester/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sun, Jul 19", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" }, { "player": "Brian Fitzpatrick", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/50043884/brian-fitzpatrick/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sat, Jul 4", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Aug 1" }, { "player": "Angel Zerpa", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2830145/angel-zerpa/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, May 31", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Jul 1" }, { "player": "Lucas Giolito", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2000027/lucas-giolito/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Jeremiah Estrada", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2836849/jeremiah-estrada/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Walker Buehler", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2184468/walker-buehler/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sat, Oct 3", "injury": "Personal", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 6" }, { "player": "Casey Mize", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2942958/casey-mize/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sat, Sep 26", "injury": "Ankle", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 11" }, { "player": "Bryan Hoeing", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/28862328/bryan-hoeing/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Wed, Apr 22", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" }, { "player": "Miguel Andujar", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2167340/miguel-andujar/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "DH", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Wrist", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Luis Rengifo", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2772560/luis-rengifo/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "LF", "reported_update": "Tue, Sep 1", "injury": "Knee", "status": "Expected to be out until at least May 1" }, { "player": "Ramon Laureano", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2224252/ramon-laureano/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "LF", "reported_update": "Fri, Jun 5", "injury": "Hip", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" } ], "missing_teams": [], "content_sha256": "1c6edeece29a8bd0db1e5248cc59e1370187bfc57c75c8cbcca1a7efde8ae472", "source_id": "ce7af5af08368ccd0c0a" }, { "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/injuries/", "title": "MLB injury listings \u2014 San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers", "published_at": null, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T11:08:46.790055Z", "candidate_ids": [ "d2d5e1951b43de6dc19ffbb7" ], "source_kind": "live_injury_table", "publication_basis": "unknown_live_snapshot", "injury_rows": [ { "player": "Grant Anderson", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/28838064/grant-anderson/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Biceps", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Brandon Woodruff", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2449977/brandon-woodruff/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Tue, Sep 29", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 11" }, { "player": "Quinn Priester", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/3117916/quinn-priester/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sun, Jul 19", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" }, { "player": "Brian Fitzpatrick", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/50043884/brian-fitzpatrick/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sat, Jul 4", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Aug 1" }, { "player": "Angel Zerpa", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2830145/angel-zerpa/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, May 31", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Jul 1" }, { "player": "Lucas Giolito", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2000027/lucas-giolito/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Jeremiah Estrada", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2836849/jeremiah-estrada/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Walker Buehler", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2184468/walker-buehler/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sat, Oct 3", "injury": "Personal", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 6" }, { "player": "Casey Mize", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2942958/casey-mize/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sat, Sep 26", "injury": "Ankle", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 11" }, { "player": "Bryan Hoeing", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/28862328/bryan-hoeing/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Wed, Apr 22", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" }, { "player": "Miguel Andujar", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2167340/miguel-andujar/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "DH", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Wrist", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Luis Rengifo", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2772560/luis-rengifo/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "LF", "reported_update": "Tue, Sep 1", "injury": "Knee", "status": "Expected to be out until at least May 1" }, { "player": "Ramon Laureano", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2224252/ramon-laureano/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "LF", "reported_update": "Fri, Jun 5", "injury": "Hip", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" } ], "missing_teams": [], "content_sha256": "1c6edeece29a8bd0db1e5248cc59e1370187bfc57c75c8cbcca1a7efde8ae472", "source_id": "bde568dda4f1f84a8a14" }, { "url": "https://www.mlb.com/news/padres-brewers-nl-division-series-game-2-starting-lineups-and-pitching-matchup", "title": "Padres-Brewers NLDS Game 2 FAQ (4 p.m. ET, FS1/FOX One)", "published_at": "2026-10-04T07:53:21.479000Z", "updated_at": "2026-10-04T07:53:21.479000Z", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T11:08:47.392253Z", "candidate_ids": [ "25d64a53264d17d0741fb6fe", "6bbd64cc2576c6ebb0d50b80", "b1afd4ec0d38d75093bbfef6", "d2d5e1951b43de6dc19ffbb7" ], "content_sha256": "47ce57de6021994837372149fae912708945814b8fe9671dde185f09073ef826", "publication_basis": "publisher_rss_or_article_metadata", "source_id": "1600e1351aa22885b75e" } ], "reviewed_candidate": { "event_id": "6da40e91a31110e51e84ba5671996deb", "commence_time": "2026-10-04T20:00:00Z", "home_team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "away_team": "San Diego Padres", "game": "San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers", "book": "draftkings", "book_label": "DraftKings", "market": "pitcher_outs", "market_label": "Pitcher outs", "player": "Michael King", "side": "Over", "line": 14.5, "price": -133, "book_probability": 0.5708154506437768, "quoted_at": "2026-10-04T11:07:07Z", "market_family": "props", "mlb_game_id": 849825, "game_type": "D", "phase": "Division Series", "home_pitcher": { "id": 701656, "fullName": "Logan Henderson", "link": "/api/v1/people/701656" }, "away_pitcher": { "id": 650633, "fullName": "Michael King", "link": "/api/v1/people/650633" }, "game_number": 1, "doubleheader": false, "if_necessary": false, "series_game": 2, "venue": "American Family Field", "lineup_status": "Awaiting published batting orders", "model_probability": 0.7233191170913098, "model_status": "Eligible experimental model pick", "stat_context": { "group": "pitching", "player_id": 650633, "innings": "185.0", "games": 32, "starts": 32, "strikeouts": 159, "k_per_nine": 7.735135135135135, "era": 3.210810810810811 }, "starter_roles": [], "starter_status": "Listed probable starter", "fair_probability": 0.533066132264529, "consensus_probability": 0.5351054952914531, "paired_books": 3, "best_price": true, "other_book_probability": 0.5367835168764958, "other_books": 2, "consensus_ev": null, "model_push_probability": 0, "model_mean": 16.14803053499766, "model_ev_pct": 26.716807731033974, "model_edge_pp": 15.2503666447533, "is_model_pick": true, "model_player_id": 650633, "model_mean_label": "Projected pitcher outs", "model_conditional_probability": 0.7233191170913098, "model_fair_price": -261, "model_inputs": { "Recent starter outings": 15, "Starter outs/start, last five": 17.29, "Starter strikeouts per batter faced": 0.219, "Opponent strikeouts per PA": 0.228 }, "model_version": "mlb-v1.0-ffe831160a077d5d-2026-10-03", "model_policy": "mlb-picks-v1", "model_input_through": "2026-10-03", "game_id": 849825, "forecast_at": "2026-10-04T11:07:09.074775Z", "score": 26.716807731033974, "review": "Qualitative review needed", "url": "/mlb/picks.html?game=6da40e91a31110e51e84ba5671996deb&market=pitcher_outs&q=Michael+King", "sport": "MLB", "forecast_health": { "eligible": true, "tier": 1, "reasons": [] }, "exposure_group": "MLB:849825", "related_candidates": 3, "review_key": "[\"[\\\"MLB\\\",\\\"849825\\\",\\\"Michael King\\\",\\\"pitcher_outs\\\",\\\"Over\\\",14.5,\\\"draftkings\\\",\\\"2026-10-04T20:00:00Z\\\"]\",-133,\"2026-10-04T11:07:07Z\",\"2026-10-04T11:07:09.074775Z\",0.7233191170913098,0,0.5367835168764958,\"mlb-v1.0-ffe831160a077d5d-2026-10-03\"]", "review_bet_key": "[\"MLB\",\"849825\",\"Michael King\",\"pitcher_outs\",\"Over\",14.5,\"draftkings\",\"2026-10-04T20:00:00Z\"]", "review_context": { "model": 0.7233191170913098, "market": 0.5367835168764958, "books": 2, "push": 0, "breakEven": 0.5708154506437768, "probability_basis": "conditional_on_nonpush", "projected_quantity": 16.14803053499766, "quantity_label": "Projected pitcher outs", "market_median_line": null, "validation": "Experimental; no established executable betting edge", "calibration_sample_size": null }, "candidate_id": "25d64a53264d17d0741fb6fe", "offer_id": "163b3c752cd2803a73c5473a", "forecast_id": "946a8491e66ac6b53709deca", "independent_probability": 0.7233191170913098, "final_probability": 0.7233191170913098, "probability_basis": "unconditional_win", "market_probability": 0.5367835168764958, "market_reference": "paired_other_books_conditional_on_nonpush", "push_probability": 0, "estimated_ev": 0.26716807731033976, "key_drivers": { "Recent starter outings": 15, "Starter outs/start, last five": 17.29, "Starter strikeouts per batter faced": 0.219, "Opponent strikeouts per PA": 0.228 }, "model_limitations": "Experimental rolling model; predictive validation is not executable betting validation.", "lineup_assumption": "Awaiting published batting orders", "invalidation_conditions": [ "Price, line or forecast changes", "Game starts or quote expires", "Participation, starter or role differs from the model assumptions", "Unresolved settlement rules" ], "injury_context": { "status": "available", "observed_at": "2026-10-04T11:08:46.790055Z", "listed_count": 13, "missing_teams": [] }, "material_key": "b8aded3094fb55cd5dac9dd329390d7f9aa3daa70bdf80a04318af1878d419f0", "evidence_key": "ee32578f60b365753ec3aa6c2bd4dc083782431b061613876e41d33703c9bfb7", "research_priority": 3, "qualitative_review": { "candidate_id": "25d64a53264d17d0741fb6fe", "status": "research_support", "assessment": { "verdict": "consider", "reason": "Recent volume supports reaching 15 outs without requiring an unusually long outing; no specific workload restriction is supplied.", "model_case": "King averaged 17.29 outs over his last five starts; the 16.15 projection clears 14.5. Fifteen sampled starts support expected starter usage, but postseason removal decisions could weaken the experimental estimate.", "price_case": "At -133, the supplied model exceeds break-even and the two-book reference. Coverage is limited; central versus alternate-line positioning is unspecified, and executable value is unvalidated.", "context_case": "Dated reporting establishes the planned start, not final clearance. Batting order, handedness, bullpen workload and park/weather remain unverified.", "blocking_checks": [] }, "countercase": "Early trouble or an aggressive postseason bullpen move could prevent five completed innings.", "open_checks": [ "Check published opposing order and any announced pitch limit.", "Recheck price freshness, park/weather and pitcher-outs settlement." ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "1600e1351aa22885b75e", "excerpt": "San Diego has its ace starting in Michael King.", "interpretation": "Supports the planned starting role, but not an unrestricted workload.", "kind": "pitcher", "direction": "supports", "represented_in": "unknown" } ], "reviewed_at": "2026-10-04T11:10:21.032851Z", "offer_id": "163b3c752cd2803a73c5473a", "forecast_id": "946a8491e66ac6b53709deca", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "prompt_version": "sports-research-6", "evaluation_status": "prospective_shadow_only", "human_verified": false, "probability_adjustment": null, "evidence_asof": "2026-10-04T11:09:54.578570Z", "request_id": "295ba169066c367619b68d4b" } }, "review_matches_current": true, "exposure_group": "MLB:849825", "related_candidates": 3, "card_rank_score": 0.0006657778802110235, "card_related_candidates": 2 }, { "game_id": "c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0", "game": "Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders", "player": "Daniel Jones", "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "book_label": "BetOnline.ag", "market_std": "pass_attempts", "market_label": "Passing attempts", "name": "over", "point": 31.5, "price": -106, "mu": 35.2591323431, "model_prob": 0.6363636364, "push_prob": 0, "mkt_prob": 0.5145631068, "prob_devig": 0.4835607431, "consensus_prob": 0.4867196428, "consensus_line": 30.5, "book_count": 2, "edge_bps": 1218.0052956752, "ev_per_100": 23.6706689537, "model_status": "Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated", "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:37Z", "commence_time": "2026-10-04T13:30:00Z", "kick_et": "Sun 9:30 AM ET", "home_team": "Washington Commanders", "away_team": "Indianapolis Colts", "book": "betonlineag", "side": "over", "line": 31.5, "quoted_at": "2026-10-04T11:06:37Z", "forecast_at": "2026-10-04T11:07:12.928356+00:00", "score": 23.67066896075474, "review": "Consider", "url": "/props/top.html?q=Daniel+Jones&market=pass_attempts&game=Indianapolis+Colts+%40+Washington+Commanders", "sport": "NFL", "forecast_health": { "eligible": true, "tier": 1, "reasons": [], "raw_probability": 0.678286 }, "screening_ev": 0.23670668960754737, "qualitative_review": { "candidate_id": "f3cfcc43cf9ec3a63c4eadcc", "status": "needs_information", "assessment": { "verdict": "consider", "reason": "Repeated attempt volume supports consideration, although the opponent adjustment carries most of the projected advantage.", "model_case": "Recent totals of 31, 31 and 36 support an expected normal role, not confirmed availability. 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The market-centered stress is hypothetical, illustrating sensitivity rather than replacing the forecast.", "context_case": "Context is unverified; no sourced matchup or lineup corroboration is available.", "blocking_checks": [] }, "countercase": "Run-heavy script or an overstated defensive adjustment could leave attempts near or below the line.", "open_checks": [ "Review the defensive adjustment\u2019s rationale and game-script sensitivity.", "Check relevant lineup and weather updates.", "Reconfirm price and settlement rules." ], "evidence": [], "reviewed_at": "2026-10-04T11:10:46.645089Z", "offer_id": "1fb30b10e865b854760e49e8", "forecast_id": "f7e11151c43fe2f2fbbfba02", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "prompt_version": "sports-research-6", "evaluation_status": "prospective_shadow_only", "human_verified": false, "probability_adjustment": null, "evidence_asof": "2026-10-04T11:10:21.041242Z", "request_id": "e745f77e632b43a62b6dda6b" }, "review_sources": [ { "url": 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The independent_probability adapter field is unpopulated for NFL; final_probability is conditional on no push.", "lineup_assumption": "Active status and role require current reporting", "invalidation_conditions": [ "Price, line or forecast changes", "Game starts or quote expires", "Participation, starter or role differs from the model assumptions", "Unresolved settlement rules" ], "injury_context": { "status": "official_articles" }, "material_key": "d2019d51e61afaaf26087ebc397c45029d22624edd0c0d3ffdea1d980fee1bcf", "evidence_key": "4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945", "research_priority": 3, "qualitative_review": { "candidate_id": "f3cfcc43cf9ec3a63c4eadcc", "status": "needs_information", "assessment": { "verdict": "consider", "reason": "Repeated attempt volume supports consideration, although the opponent adjustment carries most of the projected advantage.", "model_case": "Recent totals of 31, 31 and 36 support an expected normal role, not confirmed availability. History blending produces 31.62 attempts; defense lifts that to 35.26. Calibration reduces the raw probability. The adjustment, rather than baseline volume, creates the cushion.", "price_case": "31.5 at -106 is a central quote with two-book exact-line coverage. The supplied probability exceeds break-even. The market-centered stress is hypothetical, illustrating sensitivity rather than replacing the forecast.", "context_case": "Context is unverified; no sourced matchup or lineup corroboration is available.", "blocking_checks": [] }, "countercase": "Run-heavy script or an overstated defensive adjustment could leave attempts near or below the line.", "open_checks": [ "Review the defensive adjustment\u2019s rationale and game-script sensitivity.", "Check relevant lineup and weather updates.", "Reconfirm price and settlement rules." ], "evidence": [], "reviewed_at": "2026-10-04T11:10:46.645089Z", "offer_id": "1fb30b10e865b854760e49e8", "forecast_id": "f7e11151c43fe2f2fbbfba02", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "prompt_version": "sports-research-6", "evaluation_status": "prospective_shadow_only", "human_verified": false, "probability_adjustment": null, "evidence_asof": "2026-10-04T11:10:21.041242Z", "request_id": "e745f77e632b43a62b6dda6b" } }, "review_matches_current": true, "exposure_group": "NFL:c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0", "related_candidates": 40, "card_rank_score": 0.000588861361516626, "card_related_candidates": 5 }, { "game_id": "c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0", "game": "Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders", "player": "Tyler Warren", "bookmaker": "bovada", "book_label": "Bovada", "market_std": "recv_yds", "market_label": "Receiving yards", "name": "under", "point": 46.5, "price": 145, "mu": 44.9442563653, "model_prob": 0.5, "push_prob": 0, "mkt_prob": 0.4081632653, "prob_devig": 0.3838517538, "consensus_prob": 0.3838517538, "consensus_line": 56.5, "book_count": 1, "edge_bps": 918.3673469388, "ev_per_100": 22.5, "model_status": "Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated", "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:31Z", "commence_time": "2026-10-04T13:30:00Z", "kick_et": "Sun 9:30 AM ET", "home_team": "Washington Commanders", "away_team": "Indianapolis Colts", "book": "bovada", "side": "under", "line": 46.5, "quoted_at": "2026-10-04T11:06:31Z", "forecast_at": "2026-10-04T11:07:12.928356+00:00", "score": 22.500000000000007, "review": "Consider", "url": "/props/top.html?q=Tyler+Warren&market=recv_yds&game=Indianapolis+Colts+%40+Washington+Commanders", "sport": "NFL", "forecast_health": { "eligible": true, "tier": 1, "reasons": [], "raw_probability": 0.522274 }, "screening_ev": 0.2250000000000001, "qualitative_review": { "candidate_id": "ade47e613e25c291c63a3f95", "status": "needs_information", "assessment": { "verdict": "consider", "reason": "The supplied quantitative case merits consideration, but its projection cushion is small and not a validated edge.", "model_case": "Projected yards of 44.94 barely clear the 46.5 under; recent targets and adjustment stages are unavailable. Calibration compresses the raw estimate toward even probability, with market-specific validation unspecified.", "price_case": "+145 is an alternate-line price below Bovada\u2019s 56.5 central quote. The supplied probability exceeds break-even; five other central quotes provide context, not exact-line confirmation.", "context_case": "Context is unverified: no sourced participation, quarterback, deployment or weather reporting was supplied.", "blocking_checks": [] }, "countercase": "A modest increase in targets or efficiency could erase the projection cushion; the market median is not a mean forecast.", "open_checks": [ "Review recent target and route volume for projection sensitivity.", "Reconfirm the available price and nonparticipation settlement rules." ], "evidence": [], "reviewed_at": "2026-10-04T11:11:52.732894Z", "offer_id": "3868b5fbd4417ed4696bb2b7", "forecast_id": "7734feebc4dd970e341d2745", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "prompt_version": "sports-research-6", "evaluation_status": "prospective_shadow_only", "human_verified": false, "probability_adjustment": null, "evidence_asof": "2026-10-04T11:11:32.651413Z", "request_id": "e63de60e2982f2f88a8e6190" }, "review_sources": [ { 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"point": 46.5, "price": 145, "mu": 44.9442563653, "model_prob": 0.5, "push_prob": 0, "mkt_prob": 0.4081632653, "prob_devig": 0.3838517538, "consensus_prob": 0.3838517538, "consensus_line": 56.5, "book_count": 1, "edge_bps": 918.3673469388, "ev_per_100": 22.5, "model_status": "Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated", "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:31Z", "commence_time": "2026-10-04T13:30:00Z", "kick_et": "Sun 9:30 AM ET", "home_team": "Washington Commanders", "away_team": "Indianapolis Colts", "book": "bovada", "side": "under", "line": 46.5, "quoted_at": "2026-10-04T11:06:31Z", "forecast_at": "2026-10-04T11:07:12.928356+00:00", "score": 22.500000000000007, "review": "Qualitative review needed", "url": "/props/top.html?q=Tyler+Warren&market=recv_yds&game=Indianapolis+Colts+%40+Washington+Commanders", "sport": "NFL", "forecast_health": { "eligible": true, "tier": 1, "reasons": [], "raw_probability": 0.522274 }, "screening_ev": 0.2250000000000001, "exposure_group": "NFL:c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0", "related_candidates": 40, "review_key": "[\"[\\\"NFL\\\",\\\"c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0\\\",\\\"Tyler Warren\\\",\\\"recv_yds\\\",\\\"under\\\",46.5,\\\"bovada\\\",\\\"2026-10-04T13:30:00Z\\\"]\",145,\"2026-10-04T11:06:31Z\",\"2026-10-04T11:07:12.928356+00:00\",0.5,0,0.3838517538,\"Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated\"]", "review_bet_key": "[\"NFL\",\"c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0\",\"Tyler Warren\",\"recv_yds\",\"under\",46.5,\"bovada\",\"2026-10-04T13:30:00Z\"]", "review_context": { "model": 0.5, "market": 0.3838517538, "books": 1, "push": 0, "breakEven": 0.4081632653061224, "probability_basis": "conditional_on_nonpush", "projected_quantity": 44.9442563653, "quantity_label": "Receiving yards", "market_median_line": 56.5, "validation": "Experimental; no established executable betting edge", "calibration": "Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated", "calibration_sample_size": null, "missing_model_detail": "Market-specific calibration sample size and sensitivity unavailable in this feed" }, "model_diagnostics": { "projection": null, "calibration": { "version": "nfl-calibration-trace-1", "artifact_sha256": "7c54bf5c44243e81b12bb6e72819cc44261a6c13e823cadd48cc848089163716", "fitted_season": 2025, "fitted_weeks": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14 ], "total_graded_rows": 12904, "market_sample_size": null, "tail_sample_size": null, "curve": "market_specific", "raw_probability": 0.522274, "fitted_raw_range": [ 0.012265, 0.987735 ], "outside_fitted_range": false, "endpoint_probabilities": [ 0.483696, 0.516304 ], "limitation": "Endpoint clipping is not held-out evidence; total rows are not independent games or tail sample size." }, "sigma": 27.850124, "model_minus_median_line": -11.555744, "offered_line_minus_median": -10, "offered_book_central_quote": { "bookmaker": "bovada", "name": "under", "point": 56.5, "price": -115, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:31Z", "prob_devig": 0.5 }, "offered_book_nearby_quotes": [ { "bookmaker": "bovada", "name": "under", "point": 46.5, "price": 145, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:31Z", "prob_devig": 0.383852 }, { "bookmaker": "bovada", "name": "under", "point": 51.5, "price": 110, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:31Z", "prob_devig": 0.44586 }, { "bookmaker": "bovada", "name": "under", "point": 56.5, "price": -115, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:31Z", "prob_devig": 0.5 }, { "bookmaker": "bovada", "name": "under", "point": 61.5, "price": -145, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:31Z", "prob_devig": 0.55414 } ], "other_book_central_quotes": [ { "bookmaker": "betmgm", "name": "under", "point": 55.5, "price": -115, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:36Z", "prob_devig": 0.5 }, { "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "name": "under", "point": 59.5, "price": -114, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:37Z", "prob_devig": 0.5 }, { "bookmaker": "betrivers", "name": "under", "point": 56.5, "price": -117, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:35Z", "prob_devig": 0.503014 }, { "bookmaker": "draftkings", "name": "under", "point": 56.5, "price": -114, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:19Z", "prob_devig": 0.504212 }, { "bookmaker": "fanduel", "name": "under", "point": 57.5, "price": -113, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:30Z", "prob_devig": 0.5 } ], "other_books_at_exact_line": 0, "median_is_not_expected_mean": true, "raw_distribution_stress": null }, "candidate_id": "ade47e613e25c291c63a3f95", "offer_id": "3868b5fbd4417ed4696bb2b7", "forecast_id": "7734feebc4dd970e341d2745", "independent_probability": null, "final_probability": 0.5, "probability_basis": "conditional_on_nonpush_outcome_calibrated", "market_probability": 0.3838517538, "market_reference": "paired_consensus_includes_offer", "push_probability": 0, "estimated_ev": 0.225, "key_drivers": null, "model_limitations": "Historical player model with outcome calibration; not prospectively validated against executable prices. The independent_probability adapter field is unpopulated for NFL; final_probability is conditional on no push.", "lineup_assumption": "Active status and role require current reporting", "invalidation_conditions": [ "Price, line or forecast changes", "Game starts or quote expires", "Participation, starter or role differs from the model assumptions", "Unresolved settlement rules" ], "injury_context": { "status": "official_articles" }, "material_key": "f2a364e4558ccb54ebd12515456a17ceae8d730d20bace8ca9eecbb973364ad8", "evidence_key": "4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945", "research_priority": 3, "qualitative_review": { "candidate_id": "ade47e613e25c291c63a3f95", "status": "needs_information", "assessment": { "verdict": "consider", "reason": "The supplied quantitative case merits consideration, but its projection cushion is small and not a validated edge.", "model_case": "Projected yards of 44.94 barely clear the 46.5 under; recent targets and adjustment stages are unavailable. Calibration compresses the raw estimate toward even probability, with market-specific validation unspecified.", "price_case": "+145 is an alternate-line price below Bovada\u2019s 56.5 central quote. The supplied probability exceeds break-even; five other central quotes provide context, not exact-line confirmation.", "context_case": "Context is unverified: no sourced participation, quarterback, deployment or weather reporting was supplied.", "blocking_checks": [] }, "countercase": "A modest increase in targets or efficiency could erase the projection cushion; the market median is not a mean forecast.", "open_checks": [ "Review recent target and route volume for projection sensitivity.", "Reconfirm the available price and nonparticipation settlement rules." ], "evidence": [], "reviewed_at": "2026-10-04T11:11:52.732894Z", "offer_id": "3868b5fbd4417ed4696bb2b7", "forecast_id": "7734feebc4dd970e341d2745", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "prompt_version": "sports-research-6", "evaluation_status": "prospective_shadow_only", "human_verified": false, "probability_adjustment": null, "evidence_asof": "2026-10-04T11:11:32.651413Z", "request_id": "e63de60e2982f2f88a8e6190" } }, "review_matches_current": true, "exposure_group": "NFL:c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0", "related_candidates": 40, "card_rank_score": 0.0005576576522962427, "card_related_candidates": 5 }, { "event_id": "6da40e91a31110e51e84ba5671996deb", "commence_time": "2026-10-04T20:00:00Z", "home_team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "away_team": "San Diego Padres", "game": "San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers", "book": "draftkings", "book_label": "DraftKings", "market": "pitcher_strikeouts", "market_label": "Pitcher strikeouts", "player": "Logan Henderson", "side": "Under", "line": 6.5, "price": -130, "book_probability": 0.5652173913043478, "quoted_at": "2026-10-04T11:07:07Z", "market_family": "props", "mlb_game_id": 849825, "game_type": "D", "phase": "Division Series", "home_pitcher": { "id": 701656, "fullName": "Logan Henderson", "link": "/api/v1/people/701656" }, "away_pitcher": { "id": 650633, "fullName": "Michael King", "link": "/api/v1/people/650633" }, "game_number": 1, "doubleheader": false, "if_necessary": false, "series_game": 2, "venue": "American Family Field", "lineup_status": "Awaiting published batting orders", "model_probability": 0.6776404743468923, "model_status": "Eligible experimental model pick", "stat_context": { "group": "pitching", "player_id": 701656, "innings": "98.1", "games": 18, "starts": 18, "strikeouts": 110, "k_per_nine": 10.067796610169491, "era": 2.471186440677966 }, "starter_roles": [], "starter_status": "Listed probable starter", "fair_probability": 0.5330897279740154, "consensus_probability": 0.541784417702891, "paired_books": 6, "best_price": true, "other_book_probability": 0.5427774333539988, "other_books": 5, "consensus_ev": -3.970146406600217, "model_push_probability": 0, "model_mean": 5.507974858680328, "model_ev_pct": 19.890237769065568, "model_edge_pp": 11.242308304254456, "is_model_pick": true, "model_player_id": 701656, "model_mean_label": "Projected pitcher strikeouts", "model_conditional_probability": 0.6776404743468923, "model_fair_price": -210, "model_inputs": { "Recent starter outings": 15, "Starter outs/start, last five": 16.86, "Starter strikeouts per batter faced": 0.276, "Opponent strikeouts per PA": 0.213 }, "model_version": "mlb-v1.0-ffe831160a077d5d-2026-10-03", "model_policy": "mlb-picks-v1", "model_input_through": "2026-10-03", "game_id": 849825, "forecast_at": "2026-10-04T11:07:09.074775Z", "score": 19.890237769065568, "review": "Consider", "url": "/mlb/picks.html?game=6da40e91a31110e51e84ba5671996deb&market=pitcher_strikeouts&q=Logan+Henderson", "sport": "MLB", "forecast_health": { "eligible": true, "tier": 1, "reasons": [] }, "qualitative_review": { "candidate_id": "6bbd64cc2576c6ebb0d50b80", "status": "research_support", "assessment": { "verdict": "consider", "reason": "The projected strikeout total is below the line, with recent innings volume compatible with the under case.", "model_case": "Recent usage averages 16.86 outs; the projection is 5.51 strikeouts against 6.5. Henderson's 0.276 strikeouts per batter is the strongest counterweight, while the opponent's 0.213 rate supports restraint. Adjustment details and calibration sample are unavailable.", "price_case": "At -130, the supplied model exceeds break-even and the five-book reference. Main versus alternate-line positioning is unspecified; market disagreement is not independent validation.", "context_case": "Reporting establishes the planned starter. The unpublished Padres order leaves matchup composition uncertain, without a demonstrated material blocker.", "blocking_checks": [] }, "countercase": "Strong strikeout efficiency or a longer outing could produce seven despite the lower projection.", "open_checks": [ "Review final batting order, handedness and any workload announcement.", "Check bullpen workload, park/weather, current quote and settlement." ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "1600e1351aa22885b75e", "excerpt": "Logan Henderson , who will oppose King.", "interpretation": "Supports the planned matchup, not the projected strikeout distribution.", "kind": "pitcher", "direction": "supports", "represented_in": "unknown" } ], "reviewed_at": "2026-10-04T11:10:21.032851Z", "offer_id": "f2a42f90b96c10a41231061c", "forecast_id": "1bfb5a50cf4d48dc15e22383", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "prompt_version": "sports-research-6", "evaluation_status": "prospective_shadow_only", "human_verified": false, "probability_adjustment": null, 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0.6776404743468923, "probability_basis": "unconditional_win", "market_probability": 0.5427774333539988, "market_reference": "paired_other_books_conditional_on_nonpush", "push_probability": 0, "estimated_ev": 0.19890237769065566, "key_drivers": { "Recent starter outings": 15, "Starter outs/start, last five": 16.86, "Starter strikeouts per batter faced": 0.276, "Opponent strikeouts per PA": 0.213 }, "model_limitations": "Experimental rolling model; predictive validation is not executable betting validation.", "lineup_assumption": "Awaiting published batting orders", "invalidation_conditions": [ "Price, line or forecast changes", "Game starts or quote expires", "Participation, starter or role differs from the model assumptions", "Unresolved settlement rules" ], "injury_context": { "status": "available", "observed_at": "2026-10-04T11:08:46.790055Z", "listed_count": 13, "missing_teams": [] }, "material_key": "59a9a7e0c6716bb178938ddd69facb1363548614429a3287def85caba721b044", "evidence_key": "ee32578f60b365753ec3aa6c2bd4dc083782431b061613876e41d33703c9bfb7", "research_priority": 3, "qualitative_review": { "candidate_id": "6bbd64cc2576c6ebb0d50b80", "status": "research_support", "assessment": { "verdict": "consider", "reason": "The projected strikeout total is below the line, with recent innings volume compatible with the under case.", "model_case": "Recent usage averages 16.86 outs; the projection is 5.51 strikeouts against 6.5. Henderson's 0.276 strikeouts per batter is the strongest counterweight, while the opponent's 0.213 rate supports restraint. Adjustment details and calibration sample are unavailable.", "price_case": "At -130, the supplied model exceeds break-even and the five-book reference. Main versus alternate-line positioning is unspecified; market disagreement is not independent validation.", "context_case": "Reporting establishes the planned starter. The unpublished Padres order leaves matchup composition uncertain, without a demonstrated material blocker.", "blocking_checks": [] }, "countercase": "Strong strikeout efficiency or a longer outing could produce seven despite the lower projection.", "open_checks": [ "Review final batting order, handedness and any workload announcement.", "Check bullpen workload, park/weather, current quote and settlement." ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "1600e1351aa22885b75e", "excerpt": "Logan Henderson , who will oppose King.", "interpretation": "Supports the planned matchup, not the projected strikeout distribution.", "kind": "pitcher", "direction": "supports", "represented_in": "unknown" } ], "reviewed_at": "2026-10-04T11:10:21.032851Z", "offer_id": "f2a42f90b96c10a41231061c", "forecast_id": "1bfb5a50cf4d48dc15e22383", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "prompt_version": "sports-research-6", "evaluation_status": "prospective_shadow_only", "human_verified": false, "probability_adjustment": null, "evidence_asof": "2026-10-04T11:09:54.578570Z", "request_id": "295ba169066c367619b68d4b" } }, "review_matches_current": true, "exposure_group": "MLB:849825", "related_candidates": 3, "card_rank_score": 0.0004949954593169233, "card_related_candidates": 2 }, { "game_id": "c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0", "game": "Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders", "player": "Josh Downs", "bookmaker": "bovada", "book_label": "Bovada", "market_std": "recv_yds", "market_label": "Receiving yards", "name": "under", "point": 60.5, "price": 135, "mu": 52.834800748, "model_prob": 0.5010141988, "push_prob": 0, "mkt_prob": 0.4255319149, "prob_devig": 0.3982930299, "consensus_prob": 0.3982930299, "consensus_line": 70.5, "book_count": 1, "edge_bps": 754.8228388934, "ev_per_100": 17.738336714, "model_status": "Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated", "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:31Z", "commence_time": "2026-10-04T13:30:00Z", "kick_et": "Sun 9:30 AM ET", "home_team": "Washington Commanders", "away_team": "Indianapolis Colts", "book": "bovada", "side": "under", "line": 60.5, "quoted_at": "2026-10-04T11:06:31Z", "forecast_at": "2026-10-04T11:07:12.928356+00:00", "score": 17.738336718000003, "review": "Consider", "url": "/props/top.html?q=Josh+Downs&market=recv_yds&game=Indianapolis+Colts+%40+Washington+Commanders", "sport": "NFL", "forecast_health": { "eligible": true, "tier": 1, "reasons": [], "raw_probability": 0.60024 }, "screening_ev": 0.17738336718000003, "qualitative_review": { "candidate_id": "f276b566cc51555226498c4c", "status": "needs_information", "assessment": { "verdict": "consider", "reason": "The supplied projection and price warrant consideration, with meaningful calibration and opportunity limitations.", "model_case": "Projected yards of 52.83 are below 60.5, but recent routes, targets and mean adjustments are unavailable. Receiving calibration compresses the stronger raw under estimate to near even probability, limiting its informativeness.", "price_case": "+135 is an alternate under, not Bovada\u2019s 70.5 central quote. The supplied probability exceeds break-even, but exact-line coverage is one book; broader central quotes do not independently verify value.", "context_case": "Context is unverified; no relevant participation, quarterback, teammate or matchup sources were supplied.", "blocking_checks": [] }, "countercase": "Higher target volume or passing efficiency could overcome the cushion; the central market median cannot substitute for expected yards.", "open_checks": [ "Review recent route and target volume.", "Reconfirm price and nonparticipation settlement." ], "evidence": [], "reviewed_at": "2026-10-04T11:11:52.732894Z", "offer_id": "d0b516d790f0e02c7df0e8a3", "forecast_id": "4f45a178cee2c7d668ae61bf", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "prompt_version": "sports-research-6", "evaluation_status": "prospective_shadow_only", "human_verified": false, "probability_adjustment": null, "evidence_asof": "2026-10-04T11:11:32.651413Z", "request_id": "e63de60e2982f2f88a8e6190" }, "review_sources": [ { "url": 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status: Out.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: WR Chris Bell; injury: Knee; game status: -.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: RB Jaylen Wright; injury: Foot; game status: -.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: C Aaron Brewer; injury: Hand; game status: -.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: TE Seydou Traore; injury: Thumb; game status: -.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: E Rob Beale Jr.; injury: Hamstring; game status: Out.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: LS Tucker Addington; injury: Shoulder; game status: -.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: CB Storm Duck; injury: Knee/Achilles; game status: Out.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: DL Zeek Biggers; injury: Ankle; game status: -.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: CB JuJu Brents; injury: Knee/Heel; game status: -.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: S Dante Trader; injury: Groin; game status: -.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: E Josh Uche; injury: Foot; game status: -." ], "source_id": "15307944d365d43d316c" }, { "url": 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The independent_probability adapter field is unpopulated for NFL; final_probability is conditional on no push.", "lineup_assumption": "Active status and role require current reporting", "invalidation_conditions": [ "Price, line or forecast changes", "Game starts or quote expires", "Participation, starter or role differs from the model assumptions", "Unresolved settlement rules" ], "injury_context": { "status": "official_articles" }, "material_key": "74c1e40238b3cbd7ee6b00d66429bce106c060fc8fa3a1b3968f476fa44d66cd", "evidence_key": "4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945", "research_priority": 3, "qualitative_review": { "candidate_id": "f276b566cc51555226498c4c", "status": "needs_information", "assessment": { "verdict": "consider", "reason": "The supplied projection and price warrant consideration, with meaningful calibration and opportunity limitations.", "model_case": "Projected yards of 52.83 are below 60.5, but recent routes, targets and mean adjustments are unavailable. Receiving calibration compresses the stronger raw under estimate to near even probability, limiting its informativeness.", "price_case": "+135 is an alternate under, not Bovada\u2019s 70.5 central quote. The supplied probability exceeds break-even, but exact-line coverage is one book; broader central quotes do not independently verify value.", "context_case": "Context is unverified; no relevant participation, quarterback, teammate or matchup sources were supplied.", "blocking_checks": [] }, "countercase": "Higher target volume or passing efficiency could overcome the cushion; the central market median cannot substitute for expected yards.", "open_checks": [ "Review recent route and target volume.", "Reconfirm price and nonparticipation settlement." ], "evidence": [], "reviewed_at": "2026-10-04T11:11:52.732894Z", "offer_id": "d0b516d790f0e02c7df0e8a3", "forecast_id": "4f45a178cee2c7d668ae61bf", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "prompt_version": "sports-research-6", "evaluation_status": "prospective_shadow_only", "human_verified": false, "probability_adjustment": null, "evidence_asof": "2026-10-04T11:11:32.651413Z", "request_id": "e63de60e2982f2f88a8e6190" } }, "review_matches_current": true, "exposure_group": "NFL:c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0", "related_candidates": 40, "card_rank_score": 0.0004390494551406226, "card_related_candidates": 5 }, { "game_id": "c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0", "game": "Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders", "player": "Jacory Croskey-Merritt", "bookmaker": "betrivers", "book_label": "BetRivers", "market_std": "receptions", "market_label": "Receptions", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": 135, "mu": 1.5091548692, "model_prob": 0.5, "push_prob": 0, "mkt_prob": 0.4255319149, "prob_devig": null, "consensus_prob": 0.4048406136, "consensus_line": 1.5, "book_count": 4, "edge_bps": 744.6808510638, "ev_per_100": 17.5, "model_status": "Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated", "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:35Z", "commence_time": "2026-10-04T13:30:00Z", "kick_et": "Sun 9:30 AM ET", "home_team": "Washington Commanders", "away_team": "Indianapolis Colts", "book": "betrivers", "side": "over", "line": 1.5, "quoted_at": "2026-10-04T11:06:35Z", "forecast_at": "2026-10-04T11:07:12.928356+00:00", "score": 17.500000000000004, "review": "Consider", "url": "/props/top.html?q=Jacory+Croskey-Merritt&market=receptions&game=Indianapolis+Colts+%40+Washington+Commanders", "sport": "NFL", "forecast_health": { "eligible": true, "tier": 1, "reasons": [], "raw_probability": 0.502979 }, "screening_ev": 0.17500000000000004, "qualitative_review": { "candidate_id": "25cdc2620dd5453bd83d598b", "status": "needs_information", "assessment": { "verdict": "consider", "reason": "The supplied exact-line price case merits consideration, although the reception projection offers little cushion.", "model_case": "Projected receptions of 1.509 barely exceed 1.5. 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Missing news alone does not invalidate this quantitative case.", "blocking_checks": [] }, "countercase": "A modest reduction in receiving opportunities could erase an already thin projected-quantity advantage.", "open_checks": [ "Review recent targets and routes for expected receiving usage.", "Recheck price freshness and reception settlement rules." ], "evidence": [], "reviewed_at": "2026-10-04T11:12:43.287430Z", "offer_id": "1dfe27ef183e764293d887c5", "forecast_id": "c04d29569074ce0789cb3167", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "prompt_version": "sports-research-6", "evaluation_status": "prospective_shadow_only", "human_verified": false, "probability_adjustment": null, "evidence_asof": "2026-10-04T11:12:21.400196Z", "request_id": "2e545c65ebd5b96b65efdfc6" }, "review_sources": [ { "url": "https://www.vikings.com/news/dolphins-injury-report-week-4-2026-nfl-season", "title": "Final Vikings vs. Dolphins Injury Report for Week 4 of 2026: Justin Jefferson Ruled Out", "published_at": 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prospectively validated", "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:35Z", "commence_time": "2026-10-04T13:30:00Z", "kick_et": "Sun 9:30 AM ET", "home_team": "Washington Commanders", "away_team": "Indianapolis Colts", "book": "betrivers", "side": "over", "line": 1.5, "quoted_at": "2026-10-04T11:06:35Z", "forecast_at": "2026-10-04T11:07:12.928356+00:00", "score": 17.500000000000004, "review": "Qualitative review needed", "url": "/props/top.html?q=Jacory+Croskey-Merritt&market=receptions&game=Indianapolis+Colts+%40+Washington+Commanders", "sport": "NFL", "forecast_health": { "eligible": true, "tier": 1, "reasons": [], "raw_probability": 0.502979 }, "screening_ev": 0.17500000000000004, "exposure_group": "NFL:c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0", "related_candidates": 40, "review_key": "[\"[\\\"NFL\\\",\\\"c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0\\\",\\\"Jacory 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{ "version": "nfl-calibration-trace-1", "artifact_sha256": "7c54bf5c44243e81b12bb6e72819cc44261a6c13e823cadd48cc848089163716", "fitted_season": 2025, "fitted_weeks": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14 ], "total_graded_rows": 12904, "market_sample_size": null, "tail_sample_size": null, "curve": "market_specific", "raw_probability": 0.502979, "fitted_raw_range": [ 0.000771, 0.999229 ], "outside_fitted_range": false, "endpoint_probabilities": [ 0.166667, 0.833333 ], "limitation": "Endpoint clipping is not held-out evidence; total rows are not independent games or tail sample size." }, "sigma": 1.226093, "model_minus_median_line": 0.009155, "offered_line_minus_median": 0, "offered_book_central_quote": null, "offered_book_nearby_quotes": [ { "bookmaker": "betrivers", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": 135, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:35Z", "prob_devig": null } ], "other_book_central_quotes": [ { "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": 134, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:37Z", "prob_devig": 0.401753 }, { "bookmaker": "bovada", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": 130, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:31Z", "prob_devig": 0.408472 }, { "bookmaker": "draftkings", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": 134, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:19Z", "prob_devig": 0.403274 }, { "bookmaker": "fanduel", "name": "over", "point": 1.5, "price": 130, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:30Z", "prob_devig": 0.406408 } ], "other_books_at_exact_line": 4, "median_is_not_expected_mean": true, "raw_distribution_stress": null }, "candidate_id": "25cdc2620dd5453bd83d598b", "offer_id": "1dfe27ef183e764293d887c5", "forecast_id": "c04d29569074ce0789cb3167", "independent_probability": null, "final_probability": 0.5, "probability_basis": "conditional_on_nonpush_outcome_calibrated", "market_probability": 0.4048406136, "market_reference": "paired_consensus_includes_offer", "push_probability": 0, "estimated_ev": 0.175, "key_drivers": null, "model_limitations": "Historical player model with outcome calibration; not prospectively validated against executable prices. The independent_probability adapter field is unpopulated for NFL; final_probability is conditional on no push.", "lineup_assumption": "Active status and role require current reporting", "invalidation_conditions": [ "Price, line or forecast changes", "Game starts or quote expires", "Participation, starter or role differs from the model assumptions", "Unresolved settlement rules" ], "injury_context": { "status": "official_articles" }, "material_key": "02fa2ee3c772e4a6c08a9c97811f3ffffa650ee99f4e20d3ab3b190008ef582c", "evidence_key": "4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945", "research_priority": 3, "qualitative_review": { "candidate_id": "25cdc2620dd5453bd83d598b", "status": "needs_information", "assessment": { "verdict": "consider", "reason": "The supplied exact-line price case merits consideration, although the reception projection offers little cushion.", "model_case": "Projected receptions of 1.509 barely exceed 1.5. Raw-to-calibrated probability changes little; underlying target and route samples are unavailable, limiting opportunity assessment.", "price_case": "This is the shared 1.5 line, not an identified alternate. At +135, supplied probability exceeds break-even; four other exact-line quotes provide coverage, not independent validation. Consensus includes the offer.", "context_case": "Context is unverified; no reporting establishes participation, receiving deployment, teammate changes or weather. Missing news alone does not invalidate this quantitative case.", "blocking_checks": [] }, "countercase": "A modest reduction in receiving opportunities could erase an already thin projected-quantity advantage.", "open_checks": [ "Review recent targets and routes for expected receiving usage.", "Recheck price freshness and reception settlement rules." ], "evidence": [], "reviewed_at": "2026-10-04T11:12:43.287430Z", "offer_id": "1dfe27ef183e764293d887c5", "forecast_id": "c04d29569074ce0789cb3167", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "prompt_version": "sports-research-6", "evaluation_status": "prospective_shadow_only", "human_verified": false, "probability_adjustment": null, "evidence_asof": "2026-10-04T11:12:21.400196Z", "request_id": "2e545c65ebd5b96b65efdfc6" } }, "review_matches_current": true, "exposure_group": "NFL:c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0", "related_candidates": 40, "card_rank_score": 0.00043309362574267193, "card_related_candidates": 5 }, { "game_id": "c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0", "game": "Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders", "player": "Josh Downs", "bookmaker": "fanduel", "book_label": "FanDuel", "market_std": "receptions", "market_label": "Receptions", "name": "under", "point": 6.5, "price": -102, "mu": 4.223838624, "model_prob": 0.5789473684, "push_prob": 0, "mkt_prob": 0.504950495, "prob_devig": 0.471842317, "consensus_prob": 0.4898785425, "consensus_line": 6.5, "book_count": 5, "edge_bps": 739.9687337155, "ev_per_100": 14.6542827657, "model_status": "Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated", "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:30Z", "commence_time": "2026-10-04T13:30:00Z", "kick_et": "Sun 9:30 AM ET", "home_team": "Washington Commanders", "away_team": "Indianapolis Colts", "book": "fanduel", "side": "under", "line": 6.5, "quoted_at": "2026-10-04T11:06:30Z", "forecast_at": "2026-10-04T11:07:12.928356+00:00", "score": 14.654282761568638, "review": "Consider", "url": "/props/top.html?q=Josh+Downs&market=receptions&game=Indianapolis+Colts+%40+Washington+Commanders", "sport": "NFL", "forecast_health": { "eligible": true, "tier": 1, "reasons": [], "raw_probability": 0.924122 }, "screening_ev": 0.14654282761568638, "qualitative_review": { "candidate_id": "fdff2bd10718241d8324854c", "status": "needs_information", "assessment": { "verdict": "consider", "reason": "The projected quantity provides meaningful room below the shared line, with no identified material blocker.", "model_case": "Projected receptions of 4.224 sit below 6.5, but recent targets and routes are not supplied. Calibration sharply reduces the extreme raw under probability; the resulting case remains favorable without establishing validation.", "price_case": "FanDuel's central 6.5 quote at -102 matches four other books' lines. Supplied calibrated probability exceeds break-even. Coverage supports comparison, not the model, and consensus includes the offered book.", "context_case": "Context is unverified: participation, target competition, quarterback, opponent and weather effects remain unknown.", "blocking_checks": [] }, "countercase": "Higher route participation or target concentration could overcome the projected reception cushion; the unexplained opportunity estimate is the strongest weakness.", "open_checks": [ "Review recent target and route volume and teammate availability.", "Reconfirm price freshness and settlement rules." ], "evidence": [], "reviewed_at": "2026-10-04T11:12:43.287430Z", "offer_id": "13870e8e59efa449a454813c", "forecast_id": "a6907dc27878a7610b76c832", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "prompt_version": "sports-research-6", "evaluation_status": "prospective_shadow_only", "human_verified": false, "probability_adjustment": null, "evidence_asof": "2026-10-04T11:12:21.400196Z", "request_id": "2e545c65ebd5b96b65efdfc6" }, "review_sources": [ { "url": 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status: Out.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: WR Chris Bell; injury: Knee; game status: -.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: RB Jaylen Wright; injury: Foot; game status: -.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: C Aaron Brewer; injury: Hand; game status: -.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: TE Seydou Traore; injury: Thumb; game status: -.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: E Rob Beale Jr.; injury: Hamstring; game status: Out.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: LS Tucker Addington; injury: Shoulder; game status: -.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: CB Storm Duck; injury: Knee/Achilles; game status: Out.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: DL Zeek Biggers; injury: Ankle; game status: -.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: CB JuJu Brents; injury: Knee/Heel; game status: -.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: S Dante Trader; injury: Groin; game status: -.", "Miami Dolphins Injury Report: E Josh Uche; injury: Foot; game status: -." ], "source_id": "15307944d365d43d316c" }, { "url": 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6.5, "price": -102, "mu": 4.223838624, "model_prob": 0.5789473684, "push_prob": 0, "mkt_prob": 0.504950495, "prob_devig": 0.471842317, "consensus_prob": 0.4898785425, "consensus_line": 6.5, "book_count": 5, "edge_bps": 739.9687337155, "ev_per_100": 14.6542827657, "model_status": "Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated", "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:30Z", "commence_time": "2026-10-04T13:30:00Z", "kick_et": "Sun 9:30 AM ET", "home_team": "Washington Commanders", "away_team": "Indianapolis Colts", "book": "fanduel", "side": "under", "line": 6.5, "quoted_at": "2026-10-04T11:06:30Z", "forecast_at": "2026-10-04T11:07:12.928356+00:00", "score": 14.654282761568638, "review": "Qualitative review needed", "url": "/props/top.html?q=Josh+Downs&market=receptions&game=Indianapolis+Colts+%40+Washington+Commanders", "sport": "NFL", "forecast_health": { "eligible": true, "tier": 1, "reasons": [], "raw_probability": 0.924122 }, "screening_ev": 0.14654282761568638, "exposure_group": "NFL:c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0", "related_candidates": 40, "review_key": "[\"[\\\"NFL\\\",\\\"c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0\\\",\\\"Josh Downs\\\",\\\"receptions\\\",\\\"under\\\",6.5,\\\"fanduel\\\",\\\"2026-10-04T13:30:00Z\\\"]\",-102,\"2026-10-04T11:06:30Z\",\"2026-10-04T11:07:12.928356+00:00\",0.5789473684,0,0.4898785425,\"Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated\"]", "review_bet_key": "[\"NFL\",\"c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0\",\"Josh Downs\",\"receptions\",\"under\",6.5,\"fanduel\",\"2026-10-04T13:30:00Z\"]", "review_context": { "model": 0.5789473684, "market": 0.4898785425, "books": 5, "push": 0, "breakEven": 0.504950495049505, "probability_basis": "conditional_on_nonpush", "projected_quantity": 4.223838624, "quantity_label": "Receptions", "market_median_line": 6.5, "validation": "Experimental; no established executable betting edge", "calibration": "Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated", "calibration_sample_size": null, "missing_model_detail": "Market-specific calibration sample size and sensitivity unavailable in this feed" }, "model_diagnostics": { "projection": null, "calibration": { "version": "nfl-calibration-trace-1", "artifact_sha256": "7c54bf5c44243e81b12bb6e72819cc44261a6c13e823cadd48cc848089163716", "fitted_season": 2025, "fitted_weeks": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14 ], "total_graded_rows": 12904, "market_sample_size": null, "tail_sample_size": null, "curve": "market_specific", "raw_probability": 0.924122, "fitted_raw_range": [ 0.000771, 0.999229 ], "outside_fitted_range": false, "endpoint_probabilities": [ 0.166667, 0.833333 ], "limitation": "Endpoint clipping is not held-out evidence; total rows are not independent games or tail sample size." }, "sigma": 1.587995, "model_minus_median_line": -2.276161, "offered_line_minus_median": 0, "offered_book_central_quote": { "bookmaker": "fanduel", "name": "under", "point": 6.5, "price": -102, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:30Z", "prob_devig": 0.471842 }, "offered_book_nearby_quotes": [ { "bookmaker": "fanduel", "name": "under", "point": 6.5, "price": -102, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:30Z", "prob_devig": 0.471842 } ], "other_book_central_quotes": [ { "bookmaker": "betmgm", "name": "under", "point": 6.5, "price": -115, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:36Z", "prob_devig": 0.5 }, { "bookmaker": "betonlineag", "name": "under", "point": 6.5, "price": -108, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:37Z", "prob_devig": 0.487685 }, { "bookmaker": "bovada", "name": "under", "point": 6.5, "price": -110, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:31Z", "prob_devig": 0.489879 }, { "bookmaker": "draftkings", "name": "under", "point": 6.5, "price": -110, "last_update": "2026-10-04T11:06:19Z", "prob_devig": 0.493766 } ], "other_books_at_exact_line": 4, "median_is_not_expected_mean": true, "raw_distribution_stress": null }, "candidate_id": "fdff2bd10718241d8324854c", "offer_id": "13870e8e59efa449a454813c", "forecast_id": "a6907dc27878a7610b76c832", "independent_probability": null, "final_probability": 0.5789473684, "probability_basis": "conditional_on_nonpush_outcome_calibrated", "market_probability": 0.4898785425, "market_reference": "paired_consensus_includes_offer", "push_probability": 0, "estimated_ev": 0.146542827657, "key_drivers": null, "model_limitations": "Historical player model with outcome calibration; not prospectively validated against executable prices. The independent_probability adapter field is unpopulated for NFL; final_probability is conditional on no push.", "lineup_assumption": "Active status and role require current reporting", "invalidation_conditions": [ "Price, line or forecast changes", "Game starts or quote expires", "Participation, starter or role differs from the model assumptions", "Unresolved settlement rules" ], "injury_context": { "status": "official_articles" }, "material_key": "44d358d08d47069f651c14b4d3eefdf95cd1149288487d7bda65712bc9aa988a", "evidence_key": "4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945", "research_priority": 3, "qualitative_review": { "candidate_id": "fdff2bd10718241d8324854c", "status": "needs_information", "assessment": { "verdict": "consider", "reason": "The projected quantity provides meaningful room below the shared line, with no identified material blocker.", "model_case": "Projected receptions of 4.224 sit below 6.5, but recent targets and routes are not supplied. Calibration sharply reduces the extreme raw under probability; the resulting case remains favorable without establishing validation.", "price_case": "FanDuel's central 6.5 quote at -102 matches four other books' lines. Supplied calibrated probability exceeds break-even. Coverage supports comparison, not the model, and consensus includes the offered book.", "context_case": "Context is unverified: participation, target competition, quarterback, opponent and weather effects remain unknown.", "blocking_checks": [] }, "countercase": "Higher route participation or target concentration could overcome the projected reception cushion; the unexplained opportunity estimate is the strongest weakness.", "open_checks": [ "Review recent target and route volume and teammate availability.", "Reconfirm price freshness and settlement rules." ], "evidence": [], "reviewed_at": "2026-10-04T11:12:43.287430Z", "offer_id": "13870e8e59efa449a454813c", "forecast_id": "a6907dc27878a7610b76c832", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "prompt_version": "sports-research-6", "evaluation_status": "prospective_shadow_only", "human_verified": false, "probability_adjustment": null, "evidence_asof": "2026-10-04T11:12:21.400196Z", "request_id": "2e545c65ebd5b96b65efdfc6" } }, "review_matches_current": true, "exposure_group": "NFL:c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0", "related_candidates": 40, "card_rank_score": 0.00036330296200588557, "card_related_candidates": 5 }, { "event_id": "6da40e91a31110e51e84ba5671996deb", "commence_time": "2026-10-04T20:00:00Z", "home_team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "away_team": "San Diego Padres", "game": "San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers", "book": "draftkings", "book_label": "DraftKings", "market": "pitcher_outs", "market_label": "Pitcher outs", "player": "Logan Henderson", "side": "Under", "line": 15.5, "price": -103, "book_probability": 0.5073891625615764, "quoted_at": "2026-10-04T11:07:07Z", "market_family": "props", "mlb_game_id": 849825, "game_type": "D", "phase": "Division Series", "home_pitcher": { "id": 701656, "fullName": "Logan Henderson", "link": "/api/v1/people/701656" }, "away_pitcher": { "id": 650633, "fullName": "Michael King", "link": "/api/v1/people/650633" }, "game_number": 1, "doubleheader": false, "if_necessary": false, "series_game": 2, "venue": "American Family Field", "lineup_status": "Awaiting published batting orders", "model_probability": 0.5527408729132871, "model_status": "Eligible experimental model pick", "stat_context": { "group": "pitching", "player_id": 701656, "innings": "98.1", "games": 18, "starts": 18, "strikeouts": 110, "k_per_nine": 10.067796610169491, "era": 2.471186440677966 }, "starter_roles": [], "starter_status": "Listed probable starter", "fair_probability": 0.4738819463977177, "consensus_probability": 0.4738819463977177, "paired_books": 3, "best_price": true, "other_book_probability": 0.47464467788169007, "other_books": 2, "consensus_ev": null, "model_push_probability": 0, "model_mean": 14.773346595525464, "model_ev_pct": 8.938249710094448, "model_edge_pp": 4.535171035171071, "is_model_pick": true, "model_player_id": 701656, "model_mean_label": "Projected pitcher outs", "model_conditional_probability": 0.5527408729132871, "model_fair_price": -124, "model_inputs": { "Recent starter outings": 15, "Starter outs/start, last five": 16.86, "Starter strikeouts per batter faced": 0.276, "Opponent strikeouts per PA": 0.213 }, "model_version": "mlb-v1.0-ffe831160a077d5d-2026-10-03", "model_policy": "mlb-picks-v1", "model_input_through": "2026-10-03", "game_id": 849825, "forecast_at": "2026-10-04T11:07:09.074775Z", "score": 8.938249710094448, "review": "Consider", "url": "/mlb/picks.html?game=6da40e91a31110e51e84ba5671996deb&market=pitcher_outs&q=Logan+Henderson", "sport": "MLB", "forecast_health": { "eligible": true, "tier": 1, "reasons": [] }, "qualitative_review": { "candidate_id": "d2d5e1951b43de6dc19ffbb7", "status": "research_support", "assessment": { "verdict": "consider", "reason": "The supplied model/price case merits consideration without an identified material blocker, not as a validated edge.", "model_case": "Recent 16.86 outs/start exceeds 15.5; projected 14.77 favors under. The downward adjustment is unexplained, leaving workload sensitivity important.", "price_case": "At -103, supplied probability exceeds break-even. Two comparison books provide limited coverage; central-versus-alternate positioning is unknown.", "context_case": "Reporting establishes the planned start, not final participation or a workload cap. Batting order, bullpen availability, park/weather and settlement remain unresolved; existing pitcher inputs should not be counted again.", "blocking_checks": [] }, "countercase": "A normal outing matching recent volume would clear the line; efficient innings or limited relief availability could extend his start.", "open_checks": [ "Review published batting order and handedness.", "Check workload guidance and available relievers.", "Check park/weather, settlement and current quote." ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "1600e1351aa22885b75e", "excerpt": "Brewers starting pitcher Logan Henderson , who will oppose King.", "interpretation": "Supports the modeled starting assignment, but not an early exit.", "kind": "pitcher", "direction": "supports", "represented_in": "unknown" } ], "reviewed_at": "2026-10-04T11:11:32.643812Z", "offer_id": "17595d0c2753ada6b1ad09b3", "forecast_id": "e72d85c43cf87bac395ae2a3", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "prompt_version": "sports-research-6", "evaluation_status": "prospective_shadow_only", "human_verified": false, "probability_adjustment": null, "evidence_asof": "2026-10-04T11:11:18.398716Z", "request_id": "230bec695f6f18a08d17bb5a" }, "review_sources": [ { "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/injuries/", "title": "MLB injury listings \u2014 San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers", "published_at": null, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T11:08:46.790055Z", "candidate_ids": [ "25d64a53264d17d0741fb6fe" ], "source_kind": "live_injury_table", "publication_basis": "unknown_live_snapshot", "injury_rows": [ { "player": "Grant Anderson", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/28838064/grant-anderson/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Biceps", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Brandon Woodruff", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2449977/brandon-woodruff/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Tue, Sep 29", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 11" }, { "player": "Quinn Priester", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/3117916/quinn-priester/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sun, Jul 19", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" }, { "player": "Brian Fitzpatrick", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/50043884/brian-fitzpatrick/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sat, Jul 4", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Aug 1" }, { "player": "Angel Zerpa", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2830145/angel-zerpa/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, May 31", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Jul 1" }, { "player": "Lucas Giolito", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2000027/lucas-giolito/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Jeremiah Estrada", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2836849/jeremiah-estrada/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Walker Buehler", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2184468/walker-buehler/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sat, Oct 3", "injury": "Personal", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 6" }, { "player": "Casey Mize", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2942958/casey-mize/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sat, Sep 26", "injury": "Ankle", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 11" }, { "player": "Bryan Hoeing", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/28862328/bryan-hoeing/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Wed, Apr 22", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" }, { "player": "Miguel Andujar", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2167340/miguel-andujar/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "DH", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Wrist", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Luis Rengifo", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2772560/luis-rengifo/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "LF", "reported_update": "Tue, Sep 1", "injury": "Knee", "status": "Expected to be out until at least May 1" }, { "player": "Ramon Laureano", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2224252/ramon-laureano/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "LF", "reported_update": "Fri, Jun 5", "injury": "Hip", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" } ], "missing_teams": [], "content_sha256": "1c6edeece29a8bd0db1e5248cc59e1370187bfc57c75c8cbcca1a7efde8ae472", "source_id": "0d960bcd7ff6702b7b06" }, { "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/injuries/", "title": "MLB injury listings \u2014 San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers", "published_at": null, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T11:08:46.790055Z", "candidate_ids": [ "6bbd64cc2576c6ebb0d50b80" ], "source_kind": "live_injury_table", "publication_basis": "unknown_live_snapshot", "injury_rows": [ { "player": "Grant Anderson", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/28838064/grant-anderson/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Biceps", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Brandon Woodruff", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2449977/brandon-woodruff/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Tue, Sep 29", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 11" }, { "player": "Quinn Priester", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/3117916/quinn-priester/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sun, Jul 19", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" }, { "player": "Brian Fitzpatrick", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/50043884/brian-fitzpatrick/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sat, Jul 4", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Aug 1" }, { "player": "Angel Zerpa", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2830145/angel-zerpa/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, May 31", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Jul 1" }, { "player": "Lucas Giolito", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2000027/lucas-giolito/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Jeremiah Estrada", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2836849/jeremiah-estrada/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Walker Buehler", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2184468/walker-buehler/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sat, Oct 3", "injury": "Personal", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 6" }, { "player": "Casey Mize", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2942958/casey-mize/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sat, Sep 26", "injury": "Ankle", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 11" }, { "player": "Bryan Hoeing", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/28862328/bryan-hoeing/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Wed, Apr 22", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" }, { "player": "Miguel Andujar", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2167340/miguel-andujar/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "DH", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Wrist", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Luis Rengifo", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2772560/luis-rengifo/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "LF", "reported_update": "Tue, Sep 1", "injury": "Knee", "status": "Expected to be out until at least May 1" }, { "player": "Ramon Laureano", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2224252/ramon-laureano/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "LF", "reported_update": "Fri, Jun 5", "injury": "Hip", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" } ], "missing_teams": [], "content_sha256": "1c6edeece29a8bd0db1e5248cc59e1370187bfc57c75c8cbcca1a7efde8ae472", "source_id": "678ad4867d2322d0c14f" }, { "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/injuries/", "title": "MLB injury listings \u2014 San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers", "published_at": null, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T11:08:46.790055Z", "candidate_ids": [ "b1afd4ec0d38d75093bbfef6" ], "source_kind": "live_injury_table", "publication_basis": "unknown_live_snapshot", "injury_rows": [ { "player": "Grant Anderson", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/28838064/grant-anderson/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Biceps", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Brandon Woodruff", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2449977/brandon-woodruff/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Tue, Sep 29", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 11" }, { "player": "Quinn Priester", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/3117916/quinn-priester/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sun, Jul 19", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" }, { "player": "Brian Fitzpatrick", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/50043884/brian-fitzpatrick/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sat, Jul 4", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Aug 1" }, { "player": "Angel Zerpa", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2830145/angel-zerpa/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, May 31", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Jul 1" }, { "player": "Lucas Giolito", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2000027/lucas-giolito/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Jeremiah Estrada", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2836849/jeremiah-estrada/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Walker Buehler", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2184468/walker-buehler/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sat, Oct 3", "injury": "Personal", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 6" }, { "player": "Casey Mize", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2942958/casey-mize/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sat, Sep 26", "injury": "Ankle", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 11" }, { "player": "Bryan Hoeing", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/28862328/bryan-hoeing/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Wed, Apr 22", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" }, { "player": "Miguel Andujar", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2167340/miguel-andujar/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "DH", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Wrist", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Luis Rengifo", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2772560/luis-rengifo/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "LF", "reported_update": "Tue, Sep 1", "injury": "Knee", "status": "Expected to be out until at least May 1" }, { "player": "Ramon Laureano", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2224252/ramon-laureano/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "LF", "reported_update": "Fri, Jun 5", "injury": "Hip", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" } ], "missing_teams": [], "content_sha256": "1c6edeece29a8bd0db1e5248cc59e1370187bfc57c75c8cbcca1a7efde8ae472", "source_id": "ce7af5af08368ccd0c0a" }, { "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/injuries/", "title": "MLB injury listings \u2014 San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers", "published_at": null, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T11:08:46.790055Z", "candidate_ids": [ "d2d5e1951b43de6dc19ffbb7" ], "source_kind": "live_injury_table", "publication_basis": "unknown_live_snapshot", "injury_rows": [ { "player": "Grant Anderson", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/28838064/grant-anderson/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Biceps", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Brandon Woodruff", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2449977/brandon-woodruff/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Tue, Sep 29", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 11" }, { "player": "Quinn Priester", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/3117916/quinn-priester/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sun, Jul 19", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" }, { "player": "Brian Fitzpatrick", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/50043884/brian-fitzpatrick/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sat, Jul 4", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Aug 1" }, { "player": "Angel Zerpa", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2830145/angel-zerpa/", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "team_source_id": "MIL", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, May 31", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Jul 1" }, { "player": "Lucas Giolito", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2000027/lucas-giolito/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Jeremiah Estrada", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2836849/jeremiah-estrada/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Shoulder", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Walker Buehler", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2184468/walker-buehler/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sat, Oct 3", "injury": "Personal", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 6" }, { "player": "Casey Mize", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2942958/casey-mize/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "SP", "reported_update": "Sat, Sep 26", "injury": "Ankle", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 11" }, { "player": "Bryan Hoeing", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/28862328/bryan-hoeing/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "RP", "reported_update": "Wed, Apr 22", "injury": "Elbow", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" }, { "player": "Miguel Andujar", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2167340/miguel-andujar/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "DH", "reported_update": "Sun, Oct 4", "injury": "Wrist", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Oct 4" }, { "player": "Luis Rengifo", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2772560/luis-rengifo/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "LF", "reported_update": "Tue, Sep 1", "injury": "Knee", "status": "Expected to be out until at least May 1" }, { "player": "Ramon Laureano", "player_source_url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2224252/ramon-laureano/", "team": "San Diego Padres", "team_source_id": "SD", "position": "LF", "reported_update": "Fri, Jun 5", "injury": "Hip", "status": "Expected to be out until at least Feb 1" } ], "missing_teams": [], "content_sha256": "1c6edeece29a8bd0db1e5248cc59e1370187bfc57c75c8cbcca1a7efde8ae472", "source_id": "bde568dda4f1f84a8a14" }, { "url": "https://www.mlb.com/news/padres-brewers-nl-division-series-game-2-starting-lineups-and-pitching-matchup", "title": "Padres-Brewers NLDS Game 2 FAQ (4 p.m. ET, FS1/FOX One)", "published_at": "2026-10-04T07:53:21.479000Z", "updated_at": "2026-10-04T07:53:21.479000Z", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T11:08:47.392253Z", "candidate_ids": [ "25d64a53264d17d0741fb6fe", "6bbd64cc2576c6ebb0d50b80", "b1afd4ec0d38d75093bbfef6", "d2d5e1951b43de6dc19ffbb7" ], "content_sha256": "47ce57de6021994837372149fae912708945814b8fe9671dde185f09073ef826", "publication_basis": "publisher_rss_or_article_metadata", "source_id": "1600e1351aa22885b75e" } ], "reviewed_candidate": { "event_id": "6da40e91a31110e51e84ba5671996deb", "commence_time": "2026-10-04T20:00:00Z", "home_team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "away_team": "San Diego Padres", "game": "San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers", "book": "draftkings", "book_label": "DraftKings", "market": "pitcher_outs", "market_label": "Pitcher outs", "player": "Logan Henderson", "side": "Under", "line": 15.5, "price": -103, "book_probability": 0.5073891625615764, "quoted_at": "2026-10-04T11:07:07Z", "market_family": "props", "mlb_game_id": 849825, "game_type": "D", "phase": "Division Series", "home_pitcher": { "id": 701656, "fullName": "Logan Henderson", "link": "/api/v1/people/701656" }, "away_pitcher": { "id": 650633, "fullName": "Michael King", "link": "/api/v1/people/650633" }, "game_number": 1, "doubleheader": false, "if_necessary": false, "series_game": 2, "venue": "American Family Field", "lineup_status": "Awaiting published batting orders", "model_probability": 0.5527408729132871, "model_status": "Eligible experimental model pick", "stat_context": { "group": "pitching", "player_id": 701656, "innings": "98.1", "games": 18, "starts": 18, "strikeouts": 110, "k_per_nine": 10.067796610169491, "era": 2.471186440677966 }, "starter_roles": [], "starter_status": "Listed probable starter", "fair_probability": 0.4738819463977177, "consensus_probability": 0.4738819463977177, "paired_books": 3, "best_price": true, "other_book_probability": 0.47464467788169007, "other_books": 2, "consensus_ev": null, "model_push_probability": 0, "model_mean": 14.773346595525464, "model_ev_pct": 8.938249710094448, "model_edge_pp": 4.535171035171071, "is_model_pick": true, "model_player_id": 701656, "model_mean_label": "Projected pitcher outs", "model_conditional_probability": 0.5527408729132871, "model_fair_price": -124, "model_inputs": { "Recent starter outings": 15, "Starter outs/start, last five": 16.86, "Starter strikeouts per batter faced": 0.276, "Opponent strikeouts per PA": 0.213 }, "model_version": "mlb-v1.0-ffe831160a077d5d-2026-10-03", "model_policy": "mlb-picks-v1", "model_input_through": "2026-10-03", "game_id": 849825, "forecast_at": "2026-10-04T11:07:09.074775Z", "score": 8.938249710094448, "review": "Qualitative review needed", "url": "/mlb/picks.html?game=6da40e91a31110e51e84ba5671996deb&market=pitcher_outs&q=Logan+Henderson", "sport": "MLB", "forecast_health": { "eligible": true, "tier": 1, "reasons": [] }, "exposure_group": "MLB:849825", "related_candidates": 3, "review_key": "[\"[\\\"MLB\\\",\\\"849825\\\",\\\"Logan Henderson\\\",\\\"pitcher_outs\\\",\\\"Under\\\",15.5,\\\"draftkings\\\",\\\"2026-10-04T20:00:00Z\\\"]\",-103,\"2026-10-04T11:07:07Z\",\"2026-10-04T11:07:09.074775Z\",0.5527408729132871,0,0.47464467788169007,\"mlb-v1.0-ffe831160a077d5d-2026-10-03\"]", "review_bet_key": "[\"MLB\",\"849825\",\"Logan Henderson\",\"pitcher_outs\",\"Under\",15.5,\"draftkings\",\"2026-10-04T20:00:00Z\"]", "review_context": { "model": 0.5527408729132871, "market": 0.47464467788169007, "books": 2, "push": 0, "breakEven": 0.5073891625615764, "probability_basis": "conditional_on_nonpush", "projected_quantity": 14.773346595525464, "quantity_label": "Projected pitcher outs", "market_median_line": null, "validation": "Experimental; no established executable betting edge", "calibration_sample_size": null }, "candidate_id": "d2d5e1951b43de6dc19ffbb7", "offer_id": "17595d0c2753ada6b1ad09b3", "forecast_id": "e72d85c43cf87bac395ae2a3", "independent_probability": 0.5527408729132871, "final_probability": 0.5527408729132871, "probability_basis": "unconditional_win", "market_probability": 0.47464467788169007, "market_reference": "paired_other_books_conditional_on_nonpush", "push_probability": 0, "estimated_ev": 0.08938249710094448, "key_drivers": { "Recent starter outings": 15, "Starter outs/start, last five": 16.86, "Starter strikeouts per batter faced": 0.276, "Opponent strikeouts per PA": 0.213 }, "model_limitations": "Experimental rolling model; predictive validation is not executable betting validation.", "lineup_assumption": "Awaiting published batting orders", "invalidation_conditions": [ "Price, line or forecast changes", "Game starts or quote expires", "Participation, starter or role differs from the model assumptions", "Unresolved settlement rules" ], "injury_context": { "status": "available", "observed_at": "2026-10-04T11:08:46.790055Z", "listed_count": 13, "missing_teams": [] }, "material_key": "5928897920fdef0b977a47dcc979b7e25a0b9548382be3cef3a1e32f23283e48", "evidence_key": "ee32578f60b365753ec3aa6c2bd4dc083782431b061613876e41d33703c9bfb7", "research_priority": 3, "qualitative_review": { "candidate_id": "d2d5e1951b43de6dc19ffbb7", "status": "research_support", "assessment": { "verdict": "consider", "reason": "The supplied model/price case merits consideration without an identified material blocker, not as a validated edge.", "model_case": "Recent 16.86 outs/start exceeds 15.5; projected 14.77 favors under. The downward adjustment is unexplained, leaving workload sensitivity important.", "price_case": "At -103, supplied probability exceeds break-even. Two comparison books provide limited coverage; central-versus-alternate positioning is unknown.", "context_case": "Reporting establishes the planned start, not final participation or a workload cap. Batting order, bullpen availability, park/weather and settlement remain unresolved; existing pitcher inputs should not be counted again.", "blocking_checks": [] }, "countercase": "A normal outing matching recent volume would clear the line; efficient innings or limited relief availability could extend his start.", "open_checks": [ "Review published batting order and handedness.", "Check workload guidance and available relievers.", "Check park/weather, settlement and current quote." ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "1600e1351aa22885b75e", "excerpt": "Brewers starting pitcher Logan Henderson , who will oppose King.", "interpretation": "Supports the modeled starting assignment, but not an early exit.", "kind": "pitcher", "direction": "supports", "represented_in": "unknown" } ], "reviewed_at": "2026-10-04T11:11:32.643812Z", "offer_id": "17595d0c2753ada6b1ad09b3", "forecast_id": "e72d85c43cf87bac395ae2a3", "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", "prompt_version": "sports-research-6", "evaluation_status": "prospective_shadow_only", "human_verified": false, "probability_adjustment": null, "evidence_asof": "2026-10-04T11:11:18.398716Z", "request_id": "230bec695f6f18a08d17bb5a" } }, "review_matches_current": true, "exposure_group": "MLB:849825", "related_candidates": 3, "card_rank_score": 0.00022043069363842142, "card_related_candidates": 2 } ], "coverage": [ { "sport": "NFL", "count": 475, "available": true, "held": 680, "observed_markets": [ "pass_attempts", "pass_completions", "pass_tds", "pass_yds", "receptions", "rush_attempts", "rush_yds", "recv_yds" ], "message": "475 review candidates \u00b7 680 unreliable or sensitivity-failing forecasts withheld" }, { "sport": "MLB", "count": 4, "available": true, "held": 0, "observed_markets": [ "h2h", "spreads", "totals", "pitcher_strikeouts", "batter_hits", "batter_rbis", "batter_total_bases", "pitcher_outs", "batter_home_runs" ], "message": "4 review candidates" }, { "sport": "NHL", "count": 67, "available": true, "held": 0, "observed_markets": [ "h2h", "spreads", "totals", "player_assists", "player_points", "player_shots_on_goal", "player_goals" ], "message": "67 review candidates \u00b7 unposted markets can enter on the next refresh" } ], "budget": { "day": "2026-10-04", "timezone": "America/New_York", "limit_usd": 2.75, "charged_or_reserved_usd": 0.225949, "remaining_usd": 2.524051 }, "discovery_status": "completed", "discovery_coverage": { "slate_games": 21, "submitted_games": [ [ "NFL", "c9d8ed8aa4889486eaf10a630138ede0" ], [ "NFL", "164e6eb68f31bac190381903c3cccd31" ], [ "NFL", "1b4f2e60ce83fa1d63a5dff83769d27c" ], [ "NFL", "2ea94ddf20f66432b9024fe2e2eaba5f" ], [ "NFL", "573cc0ef39631a4f6673ec843a8bedd4" ], [ "NFL", "664e6bda5721dc63be16bcf7d962a436" ], [ "NFL", "99a9bae4dc0dc2590496bd3102b211f2" ], [ "NFL", "daf55e2df5341c007fee5a0fc5bbc2d4" ], [ "NFL", "f01589b0e7e6dd4f4ac1220a1db81f53" ], [ "NHL", "2026020035" ], [ "MLB", "849825" ], [ "NFL", "c327223d76a3b7b0db8c6c104442f44b" ], [ "NFL", "96d2373cda647873b971f268482bced0" ], [ "NFL", "a7e7efb75a9792ac63480ae6328dca18" ], [ "NFL", "e0cbd266dcf997089203a1b33ba0333d" ], [ "NHL", "2026020036" ], [ "MLB", "849823" ], [ "NHL", "2026020037" ], [ "NHL", "2026020038" ], [ "NFL", "a73a76599a4f3422803e57bd8f61b626" ], [ "NHL", "2026020039" ] ], "coverage_basis": "games_submitted_not_exhaustively_researched" }, "research": { "completed": true, "issues": [], "sports": { "NFL": { "review_status": "review_limit_reached", "candidate_count": 475, "reviewed_count": 9, "pending_count": 466, "source_status": "ready", "refresh_status": "success", "available_at_publication": true, "batch_statuses": [ "completed", "completed", "completed" ] }, "MLB": { "review_status": "completed", "candidate_count": 4, "reviewed_count": 4, "pending_count": 0, "source_status": "ready", "refresh_status": "success", "available_at_publication": true, "batch_statuses": [ "completed", "completed" ] }, "NHL": { "review_status": "review_limit_reached", "candidate_count": 67, "reviewed_count": 9, "pending_count": 58, "source_status": "ready", "refresh_status": "success", "available_at_publication": true, "batch_statuses": [ "completed", "completed", "completed" ] } }, "candidate_count": 546, "reviewed_count": 22 }, "status": "published", "basis": "Original reviewed forecasts and quotes at publication; no automatic intraday reassessment.", "edition_id": "795862a93ea476c9368e7c12", "archive_url": "/briefing/cards/2026-10-04-795862a93ea476c9368e7c12.json" }