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"mean_actual": 0.1339, "lines": [ 0.5 ] }, "batter_rbis": { "samples": 1658, "games": 47, "brier": 0.137447, "reference_brier": 0.140154, "brier_skill": 0.0193, "ece": 0.022955, "log_loss": 0.435402, "passed": true, "calibration_bins": [ { "predicted": 0.0748, "observed": 0.065, "n": 585 }, { "predicted": 0.1325, "observed": 0.1628, "n": 258 }, { "predicted": 0.2618, "observed": 0.2177, "n": 487 }, { "predicted": 0.3312, "observed": 0.3406, "n": 323 }, { "predicted": 0.402, "observed": 0.4, "n": 5 } ], "forecasts": 829, "mae": 0.5967, "mean_prediction": 0.443, "mean_actual": 0.4089, "lines": [ 0.5, 1.5 ] }, "totals": { "samples": 235, "games": 47, "brier": 0.215973, "reference_brier": 0.255081, "brier_skill": 0.1533, "ece": 0.046435, "log_loss": 0.621194, "passed": true, "calibration_bins": [ { "predicted": 0.1837, "observed": 0.0, "n": 7 }, { "predicted": 0.2631, "observed": 0.25, "n": 48 }, { "predicted": 0.3473, "observed": 0.34, "n": 50 }, { "predicted": 0.4462, "observed": 0.36, "n": 50 }, { "predicted": 0.5418, "observed": 0.4762, "n": 42 }, { "predicted": 0.6391, "observed": 0.6667, "n": 36 }, { "predicted": 0.7142, "observed": 1.0, "n": 2 } ], "lines": [ 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5, 10.5 ] }, "h2h": { "samples": 47, "games": 47, "brier": 0.246184, "reference_brier": 0.25, "brier_skill": 0.0153, "ece": 0.047317, "log_loss": 0.685544, "passed": true, "calibration_bins": [ { "predicted": 0.3989, "observed": 1.0, "n": 1 }, { "predicted": 0.487, "observed": 0.5, "n": 20 }, { "predicted": 0.5245, "observed": 0.5769, "n": 26 } ], "lines": [ 0 ] }, "spreads": { "samples": 94, "games": 47, "brier": 0.232226, "reference_brier": 0.234614, "brier_skill": 0.0102, "ece": 0.031757, "log_loss": 0.657063, "passed": true, "calibration_bins": [ { "predicted": 0.378, "observed": 0.4062, "n": 32 }, { "predicted": 0.4168, "observed": 0.4, "n": 15 }, { "predicted": 0.5793, "observed": 0.6, "n": 10 }, { "predicted": 0.6319, "observed": 0.6757, "n": 37 } ], "lines": [ -1.5, 1.5 ] } }, "postseason_error": null, "models": { "team_runs": { "kind": "boosted", "train_n": 4456, "calibration_n": 816, "features": [ "home", "opp_allowed", "opp_bb_rate", "opp_bullpen_ra9", "opp_bullpen_workload", "opp_hit_rate", "opp_hr_rate", "opp_k_rate", "opp_pa", "opp_runs", "opp_starter_bb_rate", "opp_starter_bf", "opp_starter_hit_rate", "opp_starter_hr_rate", "opp_starter_k_rate", "opp_starter_outs15", "opp_starter_outs5", "opp_starter_pitches5", "opp_starter_ra9", "opp_starter_rest", "opp_starter_starts", "opp_tb_rate", "opp_team_games", "park_factor", "postseason", "starter_bb_rate", "starter_bf", "starter_hit_rate", "starter_hr_rate", "starter_k_rate", "starter_outs15", "starter_outs5", "starter_pitches5", "starter_ra9", "starter_rest", "starter_starts", "team_allowed", "team_bb_rate", "team_bullpen_ra9", "team_bullpen_workload", "team_hit_rate", "team_hr_rate", "team_k_rate", "team_pa", "team_runs", "team_tb_rate", "team_team_games" ], "dispersion": 0.2421515724974347, "outs_sigma": null }, "pitcher_strikeouts": { "kind": "rolling", "train_n": 3771, "calibration_n": 759, "features": [ "home", "opp_allowed", "opp_bb_rate", "opp_bullpen_ra9", "opp_bullpen_workload", "opp_hit_rate", "opp_hr_rate", "opp_k_rate", "opp_pa", "opp_runs", "opp_starter_bb_rate", "opp_starter_bf", "opp_starter_hit_rate", "opp_starter_hr_rate", "opp_starter_k_rate", "opp_starter_outs15", "opp_starter_outs5", "opp_starter_pitches5", "opp_starter_ra9", "opp_starter_rest", "opp_starter_starts", "opp_tb_rate", "opp_team_games", "park_factor", "postseason", "starter_bb_rate", "starter_bf", "starter_hit_rate", "starter_hr_rate", "starter_k_rate", "starter_outs15", "starter_outs5", "starter_pitches5", "starter_ra9", "starter_rest", "starter_starts", "team_allowed", "team_bb_rate", "team_bullpen_ra9", "team_bullpen_workload", "team_hit_rate", "team_hr_rate", "team_k_rate", "team_pa", "team_runs", "team_tb_rate", "team_team_games" ], "dispersion": 0.009211848798420422, "outs_sigma": null }, "pitcher_outs": { "kind": "boosted", "train_n": 3771, "calibration_n": 759, "features": [ "home", "opp_allowed", "opp_bb_rate", "opp_bullpen_ra9", "opp_bullpen_workload", "opp_hit_rate", "opp_hr_rate", "opp_k_rate", "opp_pa", "opp_runs", "opp_starter_bb_rate", "opp_starter_bf", "opp_starter_hit_rate", "opp_starter_hr_rate", "opp_starter_k_rate", "opp_starter_outs15", "opp_starter_outs5", "opp_starter_pitches5", "opp_starter_ra9", "opp_starter_rest", "opp_starter_starts", "opp_tb_rate", "opp_team_games", "park_factor", "postseason", "starter_bb_rate", "starter_bf", "starter_hit_rate", "starter_hr_rate", "starter_k_rate", "starter_outs15", "starter_outs5", "starter_pitches5", "starter_ra9", "starter_rest", "starter_starts", "team_allowed", "team_bb_rate", "team_bullpen_ra9", "team_bullpen_workload", "team_hit_rate", "team_hr_rate", "team_k_rate", "team_pa", "team_runs", "team_tb_rate", "team_team_games" ], "dispersion": 0.0, "outs_sigma": 3.663490234040986 }, "batter_hits": { "kind": "boosted", "train_n": 35349, "calibration_n": 7039, "features": [ "batter_bb_rate", "batter_games", "batter_hit_rate", "batter_hr_rate", "batter_k_rate", "batter_pa", "batter_rbi_rate", "batter_tb_rate", "home", "lineup_slot", "opp_allowed", "opp_bb_rate", "opp_bullpen_ra9", "opp_bullpen_workload", "opp_hit_rate", "opp_hr_rate", "opp_k_rate", "opp_pa", "opp_runs", "opp_starter_bb_rate", "opp_starter_bf", "opp_starter_hit_rate", "opp_starter_hr_rate", "opp_starter_k_rate", "opp_starter_outs15", "opp_starter_outs5", "opp_starter_pitches5", "opp_starter_ra9", "opp_starter_rest", "opp_starter_starts", "opp_tb_rate", "opp_team_games", "park_factor", "postseason", "projected_pa", "recent_pa", "starter_bb_rate", "starter_bf", "starter_hit_rate", "starter_hr_rate", "starter_k_rate", "starter_outs15", "starter_outs5", "starter_pitches5", "starter_ra9", "starter_rest", "starter_starts", "team_allowed", "team_bb_rate", "team_bullpen_ra9", "team_bullpen_workload", "team_hit_rate", "team_hr_rate", "team_k_rate", "team_pa", "team_runs", "team_tb_rate", "team_team_games" ], "dispersion": 0.0, "outs_sigma": null }, "batter_total_bases": { "kind": "boosted", "train_n": 35349, "calibration_n": 7039, "features": [ "batter_bb_rate", "batter_games", "batter_hit_rate", "batter_hr_rate", "batter_k_rate", "batter_pa", "batter_rbi_rate", "batter_tb_rate", "home", "lineup_slot", "opp_allowed", "opp_bb_rate", "opp_bullpen_ra9", "opp_bullpen_workload", "opp_hit_rate", "opp_hr_rate", "opp_k_rate", "opp_pa", "opp_runs", "opp_starter_bb_rate", "opp_starter_bf", "opp_starter_hit_rate", "opp_starter_hr_rate", "opp_starter_k_rate", "opp_starter_outs15", "opp_starter_outs5", "opp_starter_pitches5", "opp_starter_ra9", "opp_starter_rest", "opp_starter_starts", "opp_tb_rate", "opp_team_games", "park_factor", "postseason", "projected_pa", "recent_pa", "starter_bb_rate", "starter_bf", "starter_hit_rate", "starter_hr_rate", "starter_k_rate", "starter_outs15", "starter_outs5", "starter_pitches5", "starter_ra9", "starter_rest", "starter_starts", "team_allowed", "team_bb_rate", "team_bullpen_ra9", "team_bullpen_workload", "team_hit_rate", "team_hr_rate", "team_k_rate", "team_pa", "team_runs", "team_tb_rate", "team_team_games" ], "dispersion": 0.6704851433665721, "outs_sigma": null }, "batter_home_runs": { "kind": "boosted", "train_n": 35349, "calibration_n": 7039, "features": [ "batter_bb_rate", "batter_games", "batter_hit_rate", "batter_hr_rate", "batter_k_rate", "batter_pa", "batter_rbi_rate", "batter_tb_rate", "home", "lineup_slot", "opp_allowed", "opp_bb_rate", "opp_bullpen_ra9", "opp_bullpen_workload", "opp_hit_rate", "opp_hr_rate", "opp_k_rate", "opp_pa", "opp_runs", "opp_starter_bb_rate", "opp_starter_bf", "opp_starter_hit_rate", "opp_starter_hr_rate", "opp_starter_k_rate", "opp_starter_outs15", "opp_starter_outs5", "opp_starter_pitches5", "opp_starter_ra9", "opp_starter_rest", "opp_starter_starts", "opp_tb_rate", "opp_team_games", "park_factor", "postseason", "projected_pa", "recent_pa", "starter_bb_rate", "starter_bf", "starter_hit_rate", "starter_hr_rate", "starter_k_rate", "starter_outs15", "starter_outs5", "starter_pitches5", "starter_ra9", "starter_rest", "starter_starts", "team_allowed", "team_bb_rate", "team_bullpen_ra9", "team_bullpen_workload", "team_hit_rate", "team_hr_rate", "team_k_rate", "team_pa", "team_runs", "team_tb_rate", "team_team_games" ], "dispersion": 0.0, "outs_sigma": null }, "batter_rbis": { "kind": "boosted", "train_n": 35349, "calibration_n": 7039, "features": [ "batter_bb_rate", "batter_games", "batter_hit_rate", "batter_hr_rate", "batter_k_rate", "batter_pa", "batter_rbi_rate", "batter_tb_rate", "home", "lineup_slot", "opp_allowed", "opp_bb_rate", "opp_bullpen_ra9", "opp_bullpen_workload", "opp_hit_rate", "opp_hr_rate", "opp_k_rate", "opp_pa", "opp_runs", "opp_starter_bb_rate", "opp_starter_bf", "opp_starter_hit_rate", "opp_starter_hr_rate", "opp_starter_k_rate", "opp_starter_outs15", "opp_starter_outs5", "opp_starter_pitches5", "opp_starter_ra9", "opp_starter_rest", "opp_starter_starts", "opp_tb_rate", "opp_team_games", "park_factor", "postseason", "projected_pa", "recent_pa", "starter_bb_rate", "starter_bf", "starter_hit_rate", "starter_hr_rate", "starter_k_rate", "starter_outs15", "starter_outs5", "starter_pitches5", "starter_ra9", "starter_rest", "starter_starts", "team_allowed", "team_bb_rate", "team_bullpen_ra9", "team_bullpen_workload", "team_hit_rate", "team_hr_rate", "team_k_rate", "team_pa", "team_runs", "team_tb_rate", "team_team_games" ], "dispersion": 0.9791203125957592, "outs_sigma": null } }, "reference": "Empirical outcome distribution in the training partition, independent of sportsbook prices", "thresholds": { "regular_min_games": 150, "regular_max_brier_excess": 0, "regular_max_ece": 0.06, "postseason_min_games": 30, "postseason_max_brier_excess": 0, "postseason_max_ece": 0.12 }, "limitations": [ "Fixed threshold grids, not archived historical bookmaker lines; no historical ROI claim.", "Historical evaluation conditions on actual starters and original batting order; archived pregame announcements are unavailable.", "Postseason audit is small and uses an earlier model fitted before that postseason; upcoming playoff accuracy is unproven.", "No explicit handedness, weather, injury, umpire or tactical pinch-hit adjustments.", "Park estimates are shrunk venue scoring averages and can include home-team effects.", "Joint team-run approximation conditions out ties; extra-inning dynamics are not simulated pitch by pitch." ] }, "model_summary": { "forecasts": 1333, "picks": 24, "unavailable_reasons": { "Waiting for both probable starters": 509, "Awaiting this player in a published starting batting order": 3955 }, "history_through": "2026-09-21", "weights_trained_through": "2026-07-23", "policy": "mlb-picks-v1" }, "limitations": "NFL injury adjustments are not established by this evidence. A live total is not a prop forecast. Only validated fresh model rows are included. Historical quotes are not openers." }