{ "as_of": "2026-09-24T11:39:14.757154+00:00", "sport": "MLB", "data_readiness": { "ready": true, "briefing_at": "2026-09-24T11:39:09.199115+00:00", "board_at": "2026-09-24T11:38:21.419881Z", "model_checked_at": "2026-09-24T11:38:25.549973Z", "required_history_through": "2026-09-23", "history_through": "2026-09-23", "reason": "Current data checks passed" }, "markets": [ { "id": "total-a44be11545d471429fd459d4c5740006", "sport": "MLB", "game": "San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers", "commence_time": "2026-09-25T02:11:00+00:00", "start_label": "Thu 10:11 PM ET", "median": 7.5, "minimum": 7.5, "maximum": 7.5, "books": { "fanduel": 7.5, "betonlineag": 7.5, "lowvig": 7.5, "mybookieag": 7.5, "draftkings": 7.5, "fanatics": 7.5, "bovada": 7.5, "betmgm": 7.5, "williamhill_us": 7.5, "betus": 7.5, "betrivers": 7.5 }, "quotes": [ { "book": "betrivers", "label": "BetRivers", "line": 7.5, "over_price": -103, "under_price": -120, "quoted_at": "2026-09-24T11:38:56+00:00" }, { "book": "fanduel", "label": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "over_price": -105, "under_price": -115, "quoted_at": "2026-09-24T11:38:41+00:00" }, { "book": "betmgm", "label": "BetMGM", "line": 7.5, "over_price": -110, "under_price": -110, "quoted_at": "2026-09-24T11:38:40+00:00" }, { "book": "betus", "label": "BetUS", "line": 7.5, "over_price": -110, "under_price": -110, "quoted_at": "2026-09-24T11:38:57+00:00" } ], "previous_books": { "betmgm": 7.5, "betonlineag": 7.5, "betrivers": 7.5, "betus": 7.5, "bovada": 7.5, "draftkings": 7.5, "fanatics": 7.5, "fanduel": 7.5, "lowvig": 7.5, "mybookieag": 7.5, "williamhill_us": 7.5 }, "change_from": "2026-09-24T06:04:06.044369+00:00", "change": 0.0, "change_label": "+0 (11 matched books)", "quote_selection": "Selected books only; range/median use all observed books" } ], "model_rows": [ { "id": "model-0", "event_id": "ca2c6af9c65d99ec92728e8b8c76fae9", "commence_time": "2026-09-24T16:36:00Z", "home_team": "Pittsburgh Pirates", "away_team": "St. Louis Cardinals", "game": "St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates", "book": "betonlineag", "book_label": "BetOnline.ag", "market": "h2h", "market_label": "Moneyline", "player": "", "side": "St. Louis Cardinals", "line": null, "price": 143.0, "book_probability": 0.411522633744856, "quoted_at": "2026-09-24T11:37:49Z", "market_family": "lines", "mlb_game_id": 823326, "game_type": "R", "phase": "Regular season", "home_pitcher": { "id": 694973, "fullName": "Paul Skenes", "link": "/api/v1/people/694973" }, "away_pitcher": { "id": 681517, "fullName": "Kyle Leahy", "link": "/api/v1/people/681517" }, "game_number": 1, "doubleheader": false, "if_necessary": false, "series_game": 3, "venue": "PNC Park", "lineup_status": "Awaiting published batting orders", "model_probability": 0.5038909176770711, "model_status": "Eligible experimental model pick", "stat_context": null, "fair_probability": 0.40190672025422935, "consensus_probability": 0.40765520460557025, "paired_books": 11, "best_price": true, "other_book_probability": 0.407887066627294, "other_books": 10, "consensus_ev": -0.8834428095675584, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "model_mean": -0.06957623294057756, "model_ev_pct": 22.44549299552826, "model_edge_pp": 9.236828393221508, "is_model_pick": true, "model_mean_label": "Projected home run margin", "model_conditional_probability": 0.5038909176770711, "model_fair_price": -102, "model_inputs": { "home recent runs/game": 4.1, "away recent runs/game": 4.77, "home starter recent RA/9": 5.02, "away starter recent RA/9": 3.24 }, "model_version": "mlb-v1.0-ffe831160a077d5d-2026-09-23", "model_policy": "mlb-picks-v1", "model_input_through": "2026-09-23" } ], "model_references": [], "methods": "## Feature windows\n\nAll windows also have a 370-day maximum lookback.\n\n- Team: last 40 games; runs scored/allowed, PA and K/H/HR/BB/TB rates. Bullpen RA/9 is computed from team pitching minus the starter. Bullpen workload is pitches in the previous three calendar days.\n- Pitcher: last 15 starts; last-five outs and pitches, batters faced, K/BB/H/HR rates, runs per out, and rest capped at 30 days.\n- Batter: last 60 appearances; rates per PA, last 20 starting appearances for PA context, original/published batting slot and a transparent projected-PA input.\n- Park: last 100 games at the venue, shrunk by 40 games toward nine combined runs. This is a venue scoring indicator, not an isolated park factor; home-team quality can influence it.\n- Matchup: home/away and postseason indicators; own and opponent team and starter features.\n\nSmall samples shrink toward fixed league-like priors. Missing players do not receive public league-average or 50% predictions. Teams require ten prior games, each probable starter three prior starts, and hitters 50 prior PA plus a published lineup match.\n\nThese mod", "model_status": "Independent MLB forecasts available", "limitations": "NFL injury adjustments are not established by this evidence. A live total is not a prop forecast. Only validated fresh model rows are included. Historical quotes are not openers.", "reporting": [ { "title": "Machado's HR sets tone as Padres move one step closer to postseason berth", "url": "https://www.mlb.com/news/manny-machado-homers-in-padres-win-over-dodgers", "published_at": "2026-09-24", "published_timestamp": "2026-09-24T07:00:00+00:00", "id": "s1", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-24T11:39:10.423311+00:00" }, { "title": "Astros squander 4-0 lead -- and a chance to break away in AL West", "url": "https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-lose-to-mariners-to-stay-tied-atop-al-west", "published_at": "2026-09-24", "published_timestamp": "2026-09-24T07:00:00+00:00", "id": "s2", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-24T11:39:10.423311+00:00" }, { "title": "Shohei Ohtani activated from injured list as Dodgers ramp up for postseason", "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/shohei-ohtani-injury-los-angeles-dodgers-mlb-playoffs/", "published_at": "2026-09-23", "published_timestamp": "2026-09-23T23:54:33+00:00", "id": "s3", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-24T11:39:10.423311+00:00" } ], "validation_context": { "input_through": "2026-09-23", "training_through": "2026-07-25", "calibration_through": "2026-08-24", "test_start": "2026-08-25", "test_end": "2026-09-23" }, "model_data_dates": { "history_through": "2026-09-23", "weights_trained_through": "2026-07-25" } }