{
  "as_of": "2026-09-25T10:13:22.083042+00:00",
  "sport": "MLB",
  "data_readiness": {
    "ready": true,
    "briefing_at": "2026-09-25T10:13:16.177685+00:00",
    "board_at": "2026-09-25T10:12:36.768419Z",
    "model_checked_at": "2026-09-25T10:12:39.476794Z",
    "required_history_through": "2026-09-24",
    "history_through": "2026-09-24",
    "reason": "Current data checks passed"
  },
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "total-6e8b1f358bb5c3837f473e61ecb68650",
      "sport": "MLB",
      "game": "Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies",
      "commence_time": "2026-09-25T22:41:00+00:00",
      "start_label": "Fri 06:41 PM ET",
      "median": 6.5,
      "minimum": 6.5,
      "maximum": 6.5,
      "books": {
        "fanduel": 6.5,
        "fanatics": 6.5,
        "betonlineag": 6.5,
        "lowvig": 6.5,
        "mybookieag": 6.5,
        "draftkings": 6.5,
        "williamhill_us": 6.5,
        "bovada": 6.5,
        "betus": 6.5,
        "betrivers": 6.5,
        "betmgm": 6.5
      },
      "quotes": [
        {
          "book": "lowvig",
          "label": "LowVig.ag",
          "line": 6.5,
          "over_price": -113,
          "under_price": -102,
          "quoted_at": "2026-09-25T10:12:36+00:00"
        },
        {
          "book": "mybookieag",
          "label": "MyBookie.ag",
          "line": 6.5,
          "over_price": -114,
          "under_price": -107,
          "quoted_at": "2026-09-25T10:11:43+00:00"
        },
        {
          "book": "bovada",
          "label": "Bovada",
          "line": 6.5,
          "over_price": -120,
          "under_price": 100,
          "quoted_at": "2026-09-25T10:13:13+00:00"
        },
        {
          "book": "betmgm",
          "label": "BetMGM",
          "line": 6.5,
          "over_price": -120,
          "under_price": 100,
          "quoted_at": "2026-09-25T10:12:51+00:00"
        }
      ],
      "previous_books": {
        "betmgm": 6.5,
        "betonlineag": 7.0,
        "betrivers": 6.5,
        "betus": 7.0,
        "bovada": 6.5,
        "draftkings": 6.5,
        "fanatics": 6.5,
        "fanduel": 6.5,
        "lowvig": 7.0,
        "williamhill_us": 6.5
      },
      "change_from": "2026-09-25T00:25:54.265041+00:00",
      "change": 0.0,
      "change_label": "+0 (10 matched books)",
      "quote_selection": "Selected books only; range/median use all observed books"
    }
  ],
  "model_rows": [
    {
      "id": "model-4",
      "event_id": "6e8b1f358bb5c3837f473e61ecb68650",
      "game": "Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies",
      "commence_time": "2026-09-25T22:41:00Z",
      "book": "lowvig",
      "book_label": "LowVig.ag",
      "market": "totals",
      "market_label": "Game total",
      "player": "",
      "side": "Over",
      "line": 6.5,
      "price": -113.0,
      "book_probability": 0.5305164319248826,
      "consensus_probability": 0.5128287363694676,
      "fair_probability": 0.5123451247979889,
      "paired_books": 11,
      "best_price": true,
      "quoted_at": "2026-09-25T10:12:36Z",
      "model_probability": 0.6739440342450197,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "model_conditional_probability": 0.6739440342450197,
      "model_mean": 8.68680507460216,
      "model_mean_label": "Projected total runs",
      "model_ev_pct": 27.035468401937347,
      "model_edge_pp": 14.342760232013706,
      "model_fair_price": -207,
      "model_inputs": {
        "home recent runs/game": 4.44,
        "away recent runs/game": 4.46,
        "home starter recent RA/9": 4.07,
        "away starter recent RA/9": 4.78
      },
      "model_status": "Eligible experimental model pick",
      "is_model_pick": true,
      "model_input_through": "2026-09-24",
      "model_version": "mlb-v1.0-ffe831160a077d5d-2026-09-24",
      "lineup_status": "Awaiting published batting orders"
    },
    {
      "id": "model-19",
      "event_id": "6e8b1f358bb5c3837f473e61ecb68650",
      "game": "Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies",
      "commence_time": "2026-09-25T22:41:00Z",
      "book": "fanduel",
      "book_label": "FanDuel",
      "market": "pitcher_strikeouts",
      "market_label": "Pitcher strikeouts",
      "player": "Cristopher Sanchez",
      "side": "Under",
      "line": 5.5,
      "price": 122.0,
      "book_probability": 0.45045045045045046,
      "consensus_probability": 0.4326243579578751,
      "fair_probability": 0.42502324345862663,
      "paired_books": 5,
      "best_price": true,
      "quoted_at": "2026-09-25T10:12:09Z",
      "model_probability": 0.5575099223995836,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "model_conditional_probability": 0.5575099223995836,
      "model_mean": 5.340155892762241,
      "model_mean_label": "Projected pitcher strikeouts",
      "model_ev_pct": 23.767202772707563,
      "model_edge_pp": 10.705947194913318,
      "model_fair_price": -126,
      "model_inputs": {
        "Recent starter outings": 15,
        "Starter outs/start, last five": 18.0,
        "Starter strikeouts per batter faced": 0.242,
        "Opponent strikeouts per PA": 0.188
      },
      "model_status": "Eligible experimental model pick",
      "is_model_pick": true,
      "model_input_through": "2026-09-24",
      "model_version": "mlb-v1.0-ffe831160a077d5d-2026-09-24",
      "lineup_status": "Awaiting published batting orders"
    }
  ],
  "model_references": [],
  "model_availability": [
    {
      "event_id": "",
      "game": "Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies",
      "available": true,
      "forecast_count": 104,
      "eligible_pick_count": 4,
      "statuses": [
        "No pick: estimated edge is below the 3% EV / 3-point threshold",
        "No pick: a better price is available at the same line",
        "Eligible experimental model pick",
        "Another offer is selected for this player and market"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "methods": "## Feature windows\n\nAll windows also have a 370-day maximum lookback.\n\n- Team: last 40 games; runs scored/allowed, PA and K/H/HR/BB/TB rates. Bullpen RA/9 is computed from team pitching minus the starter. Bullpen workload is pitches in the previous three calendar days.\n- Pitcher: last 15 starts; last-five outs and pitches, batters faced, K/BB/H/HR rates, runs per out, and rest capped at 30 days.\n- Batter: last 60 appearances; rates per PA, last 20 starting appearances for PA context, original/published batting slot and a transparent projected-PA input.\n- Park: last 100 games at the venue, shrunk by 40 games toward nine combined runs. This is a venue scoring indicator, not an isolated park factor; home-team quality can influence it.\n- Matchup: home/away and postseason indicators; own and opponent team and starter features.\n\nSmall samples shrink toward fixed league-like priors. Missing players do not receive public league-average or 50% predictions. Teams require ten prior games, each probable starter three prior starts, and hitters 50 prior PA plus a published lineup match.\n\nThese mod",
  "model_status": "Independent MLB forecasts available",
  "limitations": "NFL injury adjustments are not established by this evidence. A live total is not a prop forecast. Only validated fresh model rows are included. Historical quotes are not openers.",
  "reporting": [
    {
      "title": "Lombard's mind-bending contortionist moves flummox Rays catcher after WP",
      "url": "https://www.mlb.com/news/george-lombard-jr-s-amazing-slide-to-score-on-a-wild-pitch",
      "published_at": "2026-09-25",
      "published_timestamp": "2026-09-25T05:25:00+00:00",
      "id": "s1",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-25T10:13:22.083042+00:00"
    },
    {
      "title": "Why the Phillies aren't ready to give Don Mattingly the permanent manager job -- at least not yet",
      "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/phillies-don-mattingly-manager-decision-2027/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-23",
      "published_timestamp": "2026-09-23T14:12:31+00:00",
      "id": "s2",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-25T10:13:22.083042+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "target_game": {
    "event_id": "6e8b1f358bb5c3837f473e61ecb68650",
    "game": "Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies",
    "commence_time": "2026-09-25T22:41:00Z",
    "selection": "model-pick",
    "model_availability": {
      "event_id": "",
      "game": "Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies",
      "available": true,
      "forecast_count": 104,
      "eligible_pick_count": 4,
      "statuses": [
        "No pick: estimated edge is below the 3% EV / 3-point threshold",
        "No pick: a better price is available at the same line",
        "Eligible experimental model pick",
        "Another offer is selected for this player and market"
      ]
    }
  },
  "validation_context": {
    "input_through": "2026-09-24",
    "training_through": "2026-07-26",
    "calibration_through": "2026-08-25",
    "test_start": "2026-08-26",
    "test_end": "2026-09-24"
  },
  "model_data_dates": {
    "history_through": "2026-09-24",
    "weights_trained_through": "2026-07-26"
  }
}