{
  "as_of": "2026-09-26T11:41:55.782209+00:00",
  "sport": "MLB",
  "data_readiness": {
    "ready": true,
    "briefing_at": "2026-09-26T11:41:51.201400+00:00",
    "board_at": "2026-09-26T11:41:12.896840Z",
    "model_checked_at": "2026-09-26T11:41:15.820850Z",
    "required_history_through": "2026-09-25",
    "history_through": "2026-09-25",
    "reason": "Current data checks passed"
  },
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "total-93809969d7d5e6b21cc1e8a6070121e9",
      "sport": "MLB",
      "game": "Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants",
      "commence_time": "2026-09-26T20:06:00+00:00",
      "start_label": "Sat 04:06 PM ET",
      "median": 7.5,
      "minimum": 7.0,
      "maximum": 7.5,
      "books": {
        "fanduel": 7.5,
        "lowvig": 7.5,
        "fanatics": 7.5,
        "betonlineag": 7.5,
        "williamhill_us": 7.5,
        "draftkings": 7.5,
        "betrivers": 7.0,
        "betmgm": 7.5,
        "bovada": 7.5,
        "mybookieag": 7.5,
        "betus": 7.5
      },
      "quotes": [
        {
          "book": "betrivers",
          "label": "BetRivers",
          "line": 7.0,
          "over_price": -134,
          "under_price": -108,
          "quoted_at": "2026-09-26T11:41:24+00:00"
        },
        {
          "book": "lowvig",
          "label": "LowVig.ag",
          "line": 7.5,
          "over_price": 103,
          "under_price": -118,
          "quoted_at": "2026-09-26T11:41:26+00:00"
        },
        {
          "book": "bovada",
          "label": "Bovada",
          "line": 7.5,
          "over_price": -105,
          "under_price": -115,
          "quoted_at": "2026-09-26T11:40:52+00:00"
        },
        {
          "book": "mybookieag",
          "label": "MyBookie.ag",
          "line": 7.5,
          "over_price": -106,
          "under_price": -115,
          "quoted_at": "2026-09-26T11:41:07+00:00"
        }
      ],
      "previous_books": {
        "betonlineag": 7.5,
        "draftkings": 7.5,
        "fanatics": 7.5,
        "fanduel": 7.5,
        "lowvig": 7.5,
        "williamhill_us": 7.5
      },
      "change_from": "2026-09-25T22:27:29.042375+00:00",
      "change": 0.0,
      "change_label": "+0 (6 matched books)",
      "quote_selection": "Selected books only; range/median use all observed books"
    }
  ],
  "model_rows": [
    {
      "id": "model-19",
      "event_id": "93809969d7d5e6b21cc1e8a6070121e9",
      "game": "Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants",
      "commence_time": "2026-09-26T20:06:00Z",
      "book": "draftkings",
      "book_label": "DraftKings",
      "market": "pitcher_strikeouts",
      "market_label": "Pitcher strikeouts",
      "player": "Blake Snell",
      "side": "Under",
      "line": 7.5,
      "price": -102.0,
      "book_probability": 0.504950495049505,
      "consensus_probability": 0.483560743054414,
      "fair_probability": 0.47614107883817425,
      "paired_books": 3,
      "best_price": true,
      "quoted_at": "2026-09-26T11:40:29Z",
      "model_probability": 0.652318686210161,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "model_conditional_probability": 0.652318686210161,
      "model_mean": 6.408291492907744,
      "model_mean_label": "Projected pitcher strikeouts",
      "model_ev_pct": 29.184680994561283,
      "model_edge_pp": 14.736819116065602,
      "model_fair_price": -188,
      "model_inputs": {
        "Recent starter outings": 14,
        "Starter outs/start, last five": 14.57,
        "Starter strikeouts per batter faced": 0.293,
        "Opponent strikeouts per PA": 0.243
      },
      "model_status": "Eligible experimental model pick",
      "is_model_pick": true,
      "model_input_through": "2026-09-25",
      "model_version": "mlb-v1.0-ffe831160a077d5d-2026-09-25",
      "lineup_status": "Awaiting published batting orders"
    },
    {
      "id": "model-5",
      "event_id": "93809969d7d5e6b21cc1e8a6070121e9",
      "game": "Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants",
      "commence_time": "2026-09-26T20:06:00Z",
      "book": "fanduel",
      "book_label": "FanDuel",
      "market": "spreads",
      "market_label": "Run line",
      "player": "",
      "side": "San Francisco Giants",
      "line": 1.5,
      "price": 150.0,
      "book_probability": 0.4,
      "consensus_probability": 0.3884193615981002,
      "fair_probability": 0.38263229308005425,
      "paired_books": 8,
      "best_price": true,
      "quoted_at": "2026-09-26T11:41:09Z",
      "model_probability": 0.4890346522199725,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "model_conditional_probability": 0.4890346522199725,
      "model_mean": -1.3890538115278688,
      "model_mean_label": "Projected home run margin",
      "model_ev_pct": 22.25866305499312,
      "model_edge_pp": 8.903465221997248,
      "model_fair_price": 104,
      "model_inputs": {
        "home recent runs/game": 4.37,
        "away recent runs/game": 4.69,
        "home starter recent RA/9": 4.95,
        "away starter recent RA/9": 3.05
      },
      "model_status": "Eligible experimental model pick",
      "is_model_pick": true,
      "model_input_through": "2026-09-25",
      "model_version": "mlb-v1.0-ffe831160a077d5d-2026-09-25",
      "lineup_status": "Awaiting published batting orders"
    }
  ],
  "model_references": [],
  "model_availability": [
    {
      "event_id": "",
      "game": "Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants",
      "available": true,
      "forecast_count": 92,
      "eligible_pick_count": 5,
      "statuses": [
        "No pick: estimated edge is below the 3% EV / 3-point threshold",
        "Research forecast: unusually large discrepancy needs manual review",
        "Eligible experimental model pick",
        "Another offer is selected for this player and market"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "methods": "## Feature windows\n\nAll windows also have a 370-day maximum lookback.\n\n- Team: last 40 games; runs scored/allowed, PA and K/H/HR/BB/TB rates. Bullpen RA/9 is computed from team pitching minus the starter. Bullpen workload is pitches in the previous three calendar days.\n- Pitcher: last 15 starts; last-five outs and pitches, batters faced, K/BB/H/HR rates, runs per out, and rest capped at 30 days.\n- Batter: last 60 appearances; rates per PA, last 20 starting appearances for PA context, original/published batting slot and a transparent projected-PA input.\n- Park: last 100 games at the venue, shrunk by 40 games toward nine combined runs. This is a venue scoring indicator, not an isolated park factor; home-team quality can influence it.\n- Matchup: home/away and postseason indicators; own and opponent team and starter features.\n\nSmall samples shrink toward fixed league-like priors. Missing players do not receive public league-average or 50% predictions. Teams require ten prior games, each probable starter three prior starts, and hitters 50 prior PA plus a published lineup match.\n\nThese mod",
  "model_status": "Independent MLB forecasts available",
  "limitations": "NFL injury adjustments are not established by this evidence. A live total is not a prop forecast. Only validated fresh model rows are included. Historical quotes are not openers.",
  "reporting": [
    {
      "title": "Skubal cruises before Sasaki, Scott prep for postseason roles",
      "url": "https://www.mlb.com/news/tarik-skubal-throws-seven-scoreless-as-dodgers-shut-out-giants",
      "published_at": "2026-09-26",
      "published_timestamp": "2026-09-26T05:27:00+00:00",
      "id": "s1",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26T11:41:55.782209+00:00"
    },
    {
      "title": "Shohei Ohtani activated from injured list as Dodgers ramp up for postseason",
      "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/shohei-ohtani-injury-los-angeles-dodgers-mlb-playoffs/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-23",
      "published_timestamp": "2026-09-23T23:54:33+00:00",
      "id": "s2",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26T11:41:55.782209+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "target_game": {
    "event_id": "93809969d7d5e6b21cc1e8a6070121e9",
    "game": "Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants",
    "commence_time": "2026-09-26T20:06:00Z",
    "selection": "model-pick",
    "model_availability": {
      "event_id": "",
      "game": "Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants",
      "available": true,
      "forecast_count": 92,
      "eligible_pick_count": 5,
      "statuses": [
        "No pick: estimated edge is below the 3% EV / 3-point threshold",
        "Research forecast: unusually large discrepancy needs manual review",
        "Eligible experimental model pick",
        "Another offer is selected for this player and market"
      ]
    }
  },
  "validation_context": {
    "input_through": "2026-09-25",
    "training_through": "2026-07-27",
    "calibration_through": "2026-08-26",
    "test_start": "2026-08-27",
    "test_end": "2026-09-25"
  },
  "model_data_dates": {
    "history_through": "2026-09-25",
    "weights_trained_through": "2026-07-27"
  }
}