{
  "as_of": "2026-10-05T11:10:15.643261+00:00",
  "sport": "MLB",
  "data_readiness": {
    "ready": true,
    "briefing_at": "2026-10-05T11:09:56.545922+00:00",
    "board_at": "2026-10-05T11:07:13.373191Z",
    "model_checked_at": "2026-10-05T11:07:16.618043Z",
    "required_history_through": "2026-10-04",
    "history_through": "2026-10-04",
    "reason": "Current data checks passed"
  },
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "total-4be245ad03895bcafcdc42d7d926b675",
      "sport": "MLB",
      "game": "New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays",
      "commence_time": "2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00",
      "start_label": "Mon 08:00 PM ET",
      "median": 6.5,
      "minimum": 6.5,
      "maximum": 6.5,
      "books": {
        "fanduel": 6.5,
        "draftkings": 6.5,
        "fanatics": 6.5,
        "betmgm": 6.5,
        "williamhill_us": 6.5,
        "lowvig": 6.5,
        "betonlineag": 6.5,
        "betrivers": 6.5,
        "bovada": 6.5,
        "betus": 6.5,
        "mybookieag": 6.5
      },
      "quotes": [
        {
          "book": "mybookieag",
          "label": "MyBookie.ag",
          "line": 6.5,
          "over_price": -112,
          "under_price": -109,
          "quoted_at": "2026-10-05T11:08:31+00:00"
        },
        {
          "book": "draftkings",
          "label": "DraftKings",
          "line": 6.5,
          "over_price": -113,
          "under_price": -107,
          "quoted_at": "2026-10-05T11:09:56+00:00"
        },
        {
          "book": "betus",
          "label": "BetUS",
          "line": 6.5,
          "over_price": -115,
          "under_price": -105,
          "quoted_at": "2026-10-05T11:09:28+00:00"
        },
        {
          "book": "fanduel",
          "label": "FanDuel",
          "line": 6.5,
          "over_price": -118,
          "under_price": -104,
          "quoted_at": "2026-10-05T11:09:28+00:00"
        }
      ],
      "previous_books": {
        "betmgm": 6.5,
        "betonlineag": 6.5,
        "betrivers": 6.5,
        "betus": 6.5,
        "draftkings": 6.5,
        "fanatics": 6.5,
        "fanduel": 6.5,
        "lowvig": 6.5,
        "mybookieag": 6.5,
        "williamhill_us": 6.5
      },
      "change_from": "2026-10-04T23:01:39.939919+00:00",
      "change": 0.0,
      "change_label": "+0 (10 matched books)",
      "low": {
        "label": "MyBookie.ag",
        "line": 6.5,
        "over": "-112",
        "under": "-109",
        "lone": []
      },
      "high": {
        "label": "LowVig.ag",
        "line": 6.5,
        "over": "-113",
        "under": "-102",
        "lone": []
      },
      "model": null,
      "quote_selection": "Selected books only; range/median use all observed books"
    }
  ],
  "model_rows": [
    {
      "id": "model-3",
      "event_id": "4be245ad03895bcafcdc42d7d926b675",
      "game": "New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays",
      "commence_time": "2026-10-06T00:00:00Z",
      "book": "mybookieag",
      "book_label": "MyBookie.ag",
      "market": "totals",
      "market_label": "Game total",
      "player": "",
      "side": "Over",
      "line": 6.5,
      "price": -112.0,
      "book_probability": 0.5283018867924528,
      "consensus_probability": 0.5108342361863488,
      "fair_probability": 0.5032246968784934,
      "paired_books": 11,
      "best_price": true,
      "quoted_at": "2026-10-05T11:06:22Z",
      "model_probability": 0.6410352532669369,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "model_conditional_probability": 0.6410352532669369,
      "model_mean": 8.300782759655485,
      "model_mean_label": "Projected total runs",
      "model_ev_pct": 21.338815796955913,
      "model_edge_pp": 11.273336647448406,
      "model_fair_price": -179,
      "model_inputs": {
        "home recent runs/game": 4.46,
        "away recent runs/game": 5.0,
        "home starter recent RA/9": 4.54,
        "away starter recent RA/9": 2.62
      },
      "model_status": "Eligible experimental model pick",
      "is_model_pick": true,
      "model_input_through": "2026-10-04",
      "model_version": "mlb-v1.0-84a34a99fd94a80f-2026-10-04",
      "lineup_status": "Awaiting published batting orders"
    }
  ],
  "model_references": [],
  "model_availability": [
    {
      "event_id": "",
      "game": "New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays",
      "available": true,
      "forecast_count": 116,
      "eligible_pick_count": 4,
      "statuses": [
        "No pick: a better price is available at the same line",
        "No pick: estimated value is below the 3% EV threshold",
        "Eligible experimental model pick",
        "Research forecast: unusually large discrepancy needs manual review"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "methods": "## Feature windows\n\nAll windows also have a 370-day maximum lookback.\n\n- Team: last 40 games; runs scored/allowed, PA and K/H/HR/BB/TB rates. Bullpen RA/9 is computed from team pitching minus the starter. Bullpen workload is pitches in the previous three calendar days.\n- Pitcher: last 15 starts; last-five outs and pitches, batters faced, K/BB/H/HR rates, runs per out, and rest capped at 30 days.\n- Batter: last 60 appearances; rates per PA, last 20 starting appearances for PA context, original/published batting slot and a transparent projected-PA input.\n- Park: last 100 games at the venue, shru",
  "model_status": "Independent MLB forecasts available",
  "limitations": "NFL injury adjustments are not established by this evidence. A live total is not a prop forecast. Only validated fresh model rows are included. Historical quotes are not openers.",
  "target_game": {
    "event_id": "4be245ad03895bcafcdc42d7d926b675",
    "game": "New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays",
    "commence_time": "2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00",
    "selection": "qualified-selection",
    "model_availability": {
      "event_id": "",
      "game": "New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays",
      "available": true,
      "forecast_count": 116,
      "eligible_pick_count": 4,
      "statuses": [
        "No pick: a better price is available at the same line",
        "No pick: estimated value is below the 3% EV threshold",
        "Eligible experimental model pick",
        "Research forecast: unusually large discrepancy needs manual review"
      ]
    }
  },
  "reporting": [
    {
      "title": "Yankees-Rays ALDS Game 2 FAQ (8 p.m. ET, TBS/HBO Max)",
      "url": "https://www.mlb.com/news/yankees-vs-rays-alds-game-2-starting-lineups-and-pitching-matchup",
      "published_at": "2026-10-04",
      "published_timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:30:00+00:00",
      "id": "s1",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-05T11:10:15.643261+00:00"
    },
    {
      "title": "Tampa Bay's secret weapon? No outfield is harder to get a hit against",
      "url": "https://www.mlb.com/news/rays-secret-weapon-is-the-outfield-2026",
      "published_at": "2026-10-04",
      "published_timestamp": "2026-10-04T22:38:00+00:00",
      "id": "s2",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-05T11:10:15.643261+00:00"
    },
    {
      "title": "Why Aaron Boone liked what he saw in Giancarlo Stanton's first at-bat since April despite strikeout",
      "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/aaron-boone-giancarlo-stanton-first-at-bat-since-april-yankees/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-04",
      "published_timestamp": "2026-10-04T15:04:54+00:00",
      "id": "s3",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-05T11:10:15.643261+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "validation_context": {
    "input_through": "2026-10-04",
    "training_through": "2026-08-05",
    "calibration_through": "2026-09-04",
    "test_start": "2026-09-05",
    "test_end": "2026-10-04"
  },
  "model_data_dates": {
    "history_through": "2026-10-04",
    "weights_trained_through": "2026-08-05"
  },
  "model_required": true
}