{
  "as_of": "2026-10-06T11:11:11.374899+00:00",
  "sport": "MLB",
  "data_readiness": {
    "ready": true,
    "briefing_at": "2026-10-06T11:10:09.755918+00:00",
    "board_at": "2026-10-06T11:07:13.076234Z",
    "model_checked_at": "2026-10-06T11:07:16.514034Z",
    "required_history_through": "2026-10-05",
    "history_through": "2026-10-05",
    "reason": "Current data checks passed"
  },
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "total-1bc3bf1d3034010bdfb31d928a71177a",
      "sport": "MLB",
      "game": "Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves",
      "commence_time": "2026-10-06T22:00:00+00:00",
      "start_label": "Tue 06:00 PM ET",
      "median": 6.0,
      "minimum": 6.0,
      "maximum": 6.5,
      "books": {
        "draftkings": 6.0,
        "fanduel": 6.5,
        "betmgm": 6.0,
        "betonlineag": 6.0,
        "lowvig": 6.0,
        "bovada": 6.0,
        "betrivers": 6.0,
        "mybookieag": 6.0,
        "betus": 6.0,
        "fanatics": 6.0,
        "williamhill_us": 6.0
      },
      "quotes": [
        {
          "book": "lowvig",
          "label": "LowVig.ag",
          "line": 6.0,
          "over_price": -112,
          "under_price": -103,
          "quoted_at": "2026-10-06T11:09:13+00:00"
        },
        {
          "book": "betonlineag",
          "label": "BetOnline.ag",
          "line": 6.0,
          "over_price": -114,
          "under_price": -106,
          "quoted_at": "2026-10-06T11:09:59+00:00"
        },
        {
          "book": "williamhill_us",
          "label": "Caesars",
          "line": 6.0,
          "over_price": -122,
          "under_price": 103,
          "quoted_at": "2026-10-06T11:00:07+00:00"
        },
        {
          "book": "fanduel",
          "label": "FanDuel",
          "line": 6.5,
          "over_price": -102,
          "under_price": -120,
          "quoted_at": "2026-10-06T11:09:58+00:00"
        }
      ],
      "previous_books": {
        "betmgm": 6.0,
        "betonlineag": 6.0,
        "betrivers": 6.5,
        "betus": 6.0,
        "bovada": 6.0,
        "draftkings": 6.0,
        "fanatics": 6.0,
        "fanduel": 6.5,
        "lowvig": 6.0,
        "mybookieag": 6.0,
        "williamhill_us": 6.0
      },
      "change_from": "2026-10-06T00:50:16.451215+00:00",
      "change": 0.0,
      "change_label": "+0 (11 matched books)",
      "low": {
        "label": "LowVig.ag",
        "line": 6.0,
        "over": "-112",
        "under": "-103",
        "lone": []
      },
      "high": {
        "label": "Caesars",
        "line": 6.0,
        "over": "-122",
        "under": "+103",
        "lone": [
          {
            "label": "FanDuel",
            "line": 6.5,
            "over": "-102",
            "under": "-120"
          }
        ]
      },
      "model": null,
      "quote_selection": "Selected books only; range/median use all observed books"
    }
  ],
  "model_rows": [
    {
      "id": "model-3",
      "event_id": "1bc3bf1d3034010bdfb31d928a71177a",
      "game": "Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves",
      "commence_time": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z",
      "book": "betmgm",
      "book_label": "BetMGM",
      "market": "pitcher_strikeouts",
      "market_label": "Pitcher strikeouts",
      "player": "Chris Sale",
      "side": "Under",
      "line": 7.5,
      "price": -135.0,
      "book_probability": 0.574468085106383,
      "consensus_probability": 0.554140127388535,
      "fair_probability": 0.5346534653465347,
      "paired_books": 7,
      "best_price": true,
      "quoted_at": "2026-10-06T11:07:07Z",
      "model_probability": 0.6249046761328191,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "model_conditional_probability": 0.6249046761328191,
      "model_mean": 6.612893706378452,
      "model_mean_label": "Projected pitcher strikeouts",
      "model_ev_pct": 8.779702882379613,
      "model_edge_pp": 5.0436591026436055,
      "model_fair_price": -167,
      "model_inputs": {
        "Recent starter outings": 15,
        "Starter outs/start, last five": 19.0,
        "Starter strikeouts per batter faced": 0.307,
        "Opponent strikeouts per PA": 0.206
      },
      "model_status": "Eligible experimental model pick",
      "is_model_pick": true,
      "model_input_through": "2026-10-05",
      "model_version": "mlb-v1.0-84a34a99fd94a80f-2026-10-05",
      "lineup_status": "Awaiting published batting orders"
    }
  ],
  "model_references": [],
  "model_availability": [
    {
      "event_id": "",
      "game": "Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves",
      "available": true,
      "forecast_count": 110,
      "eligible_pick_count": 3,
      "statuses": [
        "No pick: estimated value is below the 3% EV threshold",
        "No pick: a better price is available at the same line",
        "Research forecast: line outside the validation range",
        "Research forecast: fewer than two paired books at this line"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "methods": "## Feature windows\n\nAll windows also have a 370-day maximum lookback.\n\n- Team: last 40 games; runs scored/allowed, PA and K/H/HR/BB/TB rates. Bullpen RA/9 is computed from team pitching minus the starter. Bullpen workload is pitches in the previous three calendar days.\n- Pitcher: last 15 starts; last-five outs and pitches, batters faced, K/BB/H/HR rates, runs per out, and rest capped at 30 days.\n- Batter: last 60 appearances; rates per PA, last 20 starting appearances for PA context, original/published batting slot and a transparent projected-PA input.\n- Park: last 100 games at the venue, shru",
  "model_status": "Independent MLB forecasts available",
  "limitations": "NFL injury adjustments are not established by this evidence. A live total is not a prop forecast. Only validated fresh model rows are included. Historical quotes are not openers.",
  "target_game": {
    "event_id": "1bc3bf1d3034010bdfb31d928a71177a",
    "game": "Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves",
    "commence_time": "2026-10-06T22:00:00+00:00",
    "selection": "qualified-selection",
    "model_availability": {
      "event_id": "",
      "game": "Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves",
      "available": true,
      "forecast_count": 110,
      "eligible_pick_count": 3,
      "statuses": [
        "No pick: estimated value is below the 3% EV threshold",
        "No pick: a better price is available at the same line",
        "Research forecast: line outside the validation range",
        "Research forecast: fewer than two paired books at this line"
      ]
    }
  },
  "reporting": [
    {
      "title": "With historic World Series performance in mind, Yamamoto begins 2026 postseason campaign",
      "url": "https://www.mlb.com/news/yoshinobu-yamamoto-starts-game-3-of-2026-nlds-vs-braves",
      "published_at": "2026-10-06",
      "published_timestamp": "2026-10-06T01:50:19+00:00",
      "id": "s1",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T11:11:11.374899+00:00"
    },
    {
      "title": "All according to plan: Sale slated for Game 3 duel vs. Dodgers with extra rest",
      "url": "https://www.mlb.com/news/chris-sale-to-face-dodgers-with-extra-days-in-game-3-of-nlds",
      "published_at": "2026-10-05",
      "published_timestamp": "2026-10-05T21:59:38+00:00",
      "id": "s2",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T11:11:11.374899+00:00"
    },
    {
      "title": "Shohei Ohtani still struggling at the plate: Can the Dodgers survive with this version of their superstar?",
      "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2026-mlb-playoffs-dodgers-shohei-ohtani-offense-nlds-braves/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-05",
      "published_timestamp": "2026-10-05T13:56:53+00:00",
      "id": "s3",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T11:11:11.374899+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "validation_context": {
    "input_through": "2026-10-05",
    "training_through": "2026-08-06",
    "calibration_through": "2026-09-05",
    "test_start": "2026-09-06",
    "test_end": "2026-10-05"
  },
  "model_data_dates": {
    "history_through": "2026-10-05",
    "weights_trained_through": "2026-08-06"
  },
  "model_required": true
}