{
  "as_of": "2026-10-07T11:10:41.314496+00:00",
  "sport": "MLB",
  "data_readiness": {
    "ready": true,
    "briefing_at": "2026-10-07T11:09:47.027929+00:00",
    "board_at": "2026-10-07T11:07:07.787574Z",
    "model_checked_at": "2026-10-07T11:07:12.040110Z",
    "required_history_through": "2026-10-06",
    "history_through": "2026-10-06",
    "reason": "Current data checks passed"
  },
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "total-cd974d85e2a617152370056d22cd8deb",
      "sport": "MLB",
      "game": "Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox",
      "commence_time": "2026-10-07T20:00:00+00:00",
      "start_label": "Wed 04:00 PM ET",
      "median": 8.0,
      "minimum": 7.5,
      "maximum": 8.0,
      "books": {
        "fanduel": 7.5,
        "draftkings": 8.0,
        "betmgm": 7.5,
        "williamhill_us": 8.0,
        "bovada": 8.0,
        "betrivers": 7.5,
        "mybookieag": 8.0,
        "betonlineag": 8.0,
        "lowvig": 8.0,
        "betus": 8.0,
        "fanatics": 8.0
      },
      "quotes": [
        {
          "book": "betrivers",
          "label": "BetRivers",
          "line": 7.5,
          "over_price": -118,
          "under_price": -103,
          "quoted_at": "2026-10-07T11:09:45+00:00"
        },
        {
          "book": "fanduel",
          "label": "FanDuel",
          "line": 7.5,
          "over_price": -120,
          "under_price": -102,
          "quoted_at": "2026-10-07T11:09:44+00:00"
        },
        {
          "book": "bovada",
          "label": "Bovada",
          "line": 8.0,
          "over_price": -105,
          "under_price": -115,
          "quoted_at": "2026-10-07T11:07:33+00:00"
        },
        {
          "book": "fanatics",
          "label": "Fanatics",
          "line": 8.0,
          "over_price": -105,
          "under_price": -115,
          "quoted_at": "2026-10-07T11:09:44+00:00"
        }
      ],
      "previous_books": {
        "betmgm": 8.0,
        "betonlineag": 8.0,
        "betrivers": 8.0,
        "betus": 8.0,
        "bovada": 8.0,
        "draftkings": 8.0,
        "fanatics": 7.5,
        "fanduel": 7.5,
        "lowvig": 8.0,
        "mybookieag": 8.0,
        "williamhill_us": 8.0
      },
      "change_from": "2026-10-07T00:43:24.254505+00:00",
      "change": 0.0,
      "change_label": "+0 (11 matched books)",
      "low": {
        "label": "BetRivers",
        "line": 7.5,
        "over": "-118",
        "under": "-103",
        "lone": []
      },
      "high": {
        "label": "Fanatics",
        "line": 8.0,
        "over": "-105",
        "under": "-115",
        "lone": []
      },
      "model": null,
      "quote_selection": "Selected books only; range/median use all observed books"
    }
  ],
  "model_rows": [
    {
      "id": "model-0",
      "event_id": "cd974d85e2a617152370056d22cd8deb",
      "game": "Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox",
      "commence_time": "2026-10-07T20:00:00Z",
      "book": "bovada",
      "book_label": "Bovada",
      "market": "spreads",
      "market_label": "Run line",
      "player": "",
      "side": "Chicago White Sox",
      "line": -1.5,
      "price": 185.0,
      "book_probability": 0.3508771929824561,
      "consensus_probability": 0.35173413106478446,
      "fair_probability": 0.33635187580853815,
      "paired_books": 5,
      "best_price": true,
      "quoted_at": "2026-10-07T11:05:13Z",
      "model_probability": 0.4185112605663566,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "model_conditional_probability": 0.4185112605663566,
      "model_mean": 0.5170228460178649,
      "model_mean_label": "Projected home run margin",
      "model_ev_pct": 19.275709261411635,
      "model_edge_pp": 6.76340675839005,
      "model_fair_price": 139,
      "model_inputs": {
        "home recent runs/game": 4.71,
        "away recent runs/game": 4.63,
        "home starter recent RA/9": 3.39,
        "away starter recent RA/9": 4.59
      },
      "model_status": "Eligible experimental model pick",
      "is_model_pick": true,
      "model_input_through": "2026-10-06",
      "model_version": "mlb-v1.0-04dea5188f782762-2026-10-06",
      "lineup_status": "Awaiting published batting orders"
    }
  ],
  "model_references": [],
  "model_availability": [
    {
      "event_id": "",
      "game": "Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox",
      "available": true,
      "forecast_count": 66,
      "eligible_pick_count": 2,
      "statuses": [
        "No pick: estimated value is below the 3% EV threshold",
        "No pick: a better price is available at the same line",
        "Another offer is selected for this player and market",
        "Eligible experimental model pick"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "methods": "## Feature windows\n\nAll windows also have a 370-day maximum lookback.\n\n- Team: last 40 games; runs scored/allowed, PA and K/H/HR/BB/TB rates. Bullpen RA/9 is computed from team pitching minus the starter. Bullpen workload is pitches in the previous three calendar days.\n- Pitcher: last 15 starts; last-five outs and pitches, batters faced, K/BB/H/HR rates, runs per out, and rest capped at 30 days.\n- Batter: last 60 appearances; rates per PA, last 20 starting appearances for PA context, original/published batting slot and a transparent projected-PA input.\n- Park: last 100 games at the venue, shru",
  "model_status": "Independent MLB forecasts available",
  "limitations": "NFL injury adjustments are not established by this evidence. A live total is not a prop forecast. Only validated fresh model rows are included. Historical quotes are not openers.",
  "target_game": {
    "event_id": "cd974d85e2a617152370056d22cd8deb",
    "game": "Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox",
    "commence_time": "2026-10-07T20:00:00+00:00",
    "selection": "qualified-selection",
    "model_availability": {
      "event_id": "",
      "game": "Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox",
      "available": true,
      "forecast_count": 66,
      "eligible_pick_count": 2,
      "statuses": [
        "No pick: estimated value is below the 3% EV threshold",
        "No pick: a better price is available at the same line",
        "Another offer is selected for this player and market",
        "Eligible experimental model pick"
      ]
    }
  },
  "reporting": [
    {
      "title": "Guardians-White Sox ALDS Game 3 FAQ (4 ET, TBS/HBO Max)",
      "url": "https://www.mlb.com/news/guardians-vs-white-sox-alds-game-3-starting-lineups-and-pitching-matchup",
      "published_at": "2026-10-07",
      "published_timestamp": "2026-10-07T07:11:00+00:00",
      "id": "s1",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T11:10:41.314496+00:00"
    },
    {
      "title": "Guardians must turn on power, lean on stars in Game 3",
      "url": "https://www.mlb.com/news/keys-for-guardians-to-win-game-3-extend-series",
      "published_at": "2026-10-07",
      "published_timestamp": "2026-10-07T02:01:12+00:00",
      "id": "s2",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T11:10:41.314496+00:00"
    },
    {
      "title": "Which team has the best chance to come back from its 2-0 Division Series hole: Guardians, Padres or Yankees?",
      "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-playoffs-divisional-series-best-chance-comeback-guardians-padres-yankees/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-06",
      "published_timestamp": "2026-10-06T20:10:36+00:00",
      "id": "s3",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T11:10:41.314496+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "validation_context": {
    "input_through": "2026-10-06",
    "training_through": "2026-08-07",
    "calibration_through": "2026-09-06",
    "test_start": "2026-09-07",
    "test_end": "2026-10-06"
  },
  "model_data_dates": {
    "history_through": "2026-10-06",
    "weights_trained_through": "2026-08-07"
  },
  "model_required": true
}