{
  "as_of": "2026-10-08T11:11:09.300300+00:00",
  "sport": "MLB",
  "data_readiness": {
    "ready": true,
    "briefing_at": "2026-10-08T11:09:58.750831+00:00",
    "board_at": "2026-10-08T11:07:19.511753Z",
    "model_checked_at": "2026-10-08T11:07:22.797284Z",
    "required_history_through": "2026-10-07",
    "history_through": "2026-10-07",
    "reason": "Current data checks passed"
  },
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "total-b57e790481f2b8e5eaf9e0f3eab816bc",
      "sport": "MLB",
      "game": "Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox",
      "commence_time": "2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00",
      "start_label": "Thu 08:00 PM ET",
      "median": 7.5,
      "minimum": 7.5,
      "maximum": 7.5,
      "books": {
        "draftkings": 7.5,
        "mybookieag": 7.5,
        "betus": 7.5,
        "williamhill_us": 7.5,
        "fanatics": 7.5,
        "bovada": 7.5,
        "fanduel": 7.5,
        "betrivers": 7.5,
        "betonlineag": 7.5,
        "lowvig": 7.5,
        "betmgm": 7.5
      },
      "quotes": [
        {
          "book": "lowvig",
          "label": "LowVig.ag",
          "line": 7.5,
          "over_price": 106,
          "under_price": -121,
          "quoted_at": "2026-10-08T11:09:07+00:00"
        },
        {
          "book": "betus",
          "label": "BetUS",
          "line": 7.5,
          "over_price": 105,
          "under_price": -125,
          "quoted_at": "2026-10-08T11:09:53+00:00"
        },
        {
          "book": "betmgm",
          "label": "BetMGM",
          "line": 7.5,
          "over_price": 100,
          "under_price": -120,
          "quoted_at": "2026-10-08T11:09:39+00:00"
        },
        {
          "book": "betrivers",
          "label": "BetRivers",
          "line": 7.5,
          "over_price": -104,
          "under_price": -118,
          "quoted_at": "2026-10-08T11:09:56+00:00"
        }
      ],
      "previous_books": {},
      "change_from": "2026-10-08T01:01:28.234601+00:00",
      "change": null,
      "change_label": "First comparable snapshot",
      "low": {
        "label": "LowVig.ag",
        "line": 7.5,
        "over": "+106",
        "under": "-121",
        "lone": []
      },
      "high": {
        "label": "Caesars",
        "line": 7.5,
        "over": "+100",
        "under": "-118",
        "lone": []
      },
      "model": null,
      "quote_selection": "Selected books only; range/median use all observed books"
    }
  ],
  "model_rows": [
    {
      "id": "model-1",
      "event_id": "b57e790481f2b8e5eaf9e0f3eab816bc",
      "game": "Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox",
      "commence_time": "2026-10-09T00:00:00Z",
      "book": "lowvig",
      "book_label": "LowVig.ag",
      "market": "totals",
      "market_label": "Game total",
      "player": "",
      "side": "Over",
      "line": 7.5,
      "price": 106.0,
      "book_probability": 0.4854368932038835,
      "consensus_probability": 0.47639484978540764,
      "fair_probability": 0.46995279207247054,
      "paired_books": 10,
      "best_price": true,
      "quoted_at": "2026-10-08T11:06:43Z",
      "model_probability": 0.5610947810798538,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "model_conditional_probability": 0.5610947810798538,
      "model_mean": 8.716580166724055,
      "model_mean_label": "Projected total runs",
      "model_ev_pct": 15.585524902449876,
      "model_edge_pp": 7.565788787597027,
      "model_fair_price": -128,
      "model_inputs": {
        "home recent runs/game": 4.77,
        "away recent runs/game": 4.81,
        "home starter recent RA/9": 3.42,
        "away starter recent RA/9": 3.01
      },
      "model_status": "Eligible experimental model pick",
      "is_model_pick": true,
      "model_input_through": "2026-10-07",
      "model_version": "mlb-v1.0-04dea5188f782762-2026-10-07",
      "lineup_status": "Awaiting published batting orders"
    }
  ],
  "model_references": [],
  "model_availability": [
    {
      "event_id": "",
      "game": "Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox",
      "available": true,
      "forecast_count": 93,
      "eligible_pick_count": 2,
      "statuses": [
        "No pick: estimated value is below the 3% EV threshold",
        "No pick: a better price is available at the same line",
        "Eligible experimental model pick",
        "Awaiting this player in a published starting batting order"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "methods": "## Feature windows\n\nAll windows also have a 370-day maximum lookback.\n\n- Team: last 40 games; runs scored/allowed, PA and K/H/HR/BB/TB rates. Bullpen RA/9 is computed from team pitching minus the starter. Bullpen workload is pitches in the previous three calendar days.\n- Pitcher: last 15 starts; last-five outs and pitches, batters faced, K/BB/H/HR rates, runs per out, and rest capped at 30 days.\n- Batter: last 60 appearances; rates per PA, last 20 starting appearances for PA context, original/published batting slot and a transparent projected-PA input.\n- Park: last 100 games at the venue, shrunk by 40 games toward nine combined runs. This is a venue scoring indicator, not an isolated park factor; home-team quality can influence it.\n- Matchup: home/away and postseason indicators; own and opponent team and starter features.\n\nSmall samples shrink toward fixed league-like priors. Missing players do not receive public league-average or 50% predictions. Teams require ten prior games, each probable starter three prior starts, and hitters 50 prior PA plus a published lineup match.\n\nThese mod",
  "model_status": "Independent MLB forecasts available",
  "limitations": "NFL injury adjustments are not established by this evidence. A live total is not a prop forecast. Only validated fresh model rows are included. Historical quotes are not openers.",
  "target_game": {
    "event_id": "b57e790481f2b8e5eaf9e0f3eab816bc",
    "game": "Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox",
    "commence_time": "2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00",
    "selection": "qualified-selection",
    "model_availability": {
      "event_id": "",
      "game": "Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox",
      "available": true,
      "forecast_count": 93,
      "eligible_pick_count": 2,
      "statuses": [
        "No pick: estimated value is below the 3% EV threshold",
        "No pick: a better price is available at the same line",
        "Eligible experimental model pick",
        "Awaiting this player in a published starting batting order"
      ]
    }
  },
  "reporting": [
    {
      "title": "Storylines to follow as Guards, White Sox take center stage for Game 4",
      "url": "https://www.mlb.com/news/2026-alds-game-4-storylines",
      "published_at": "2026-10-08",
      "published_timestamp": "2026-10-08T04:09:31+00:00",
      "id": "s1",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08T11:11:09.300300+00:00"
    },
    {
      "title": "J-Ram shows off all his tools as Guardians refuse to go quietly",
      "url": "https://www.mlb.com/news/jose-ramirez-records-double-stolen-base-makes-diving-play-in-alds-game-3-2026",
      "published_at": "2026-10-08",
      "published_timestamp": "2026-10-08T04:05:00+00:00",
      "id": "s2",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08T11:11:09.300300+00:00"
    },
    {
      "title": "Which team has the best chance to come back from its 2-0 Division Series hole: Guardians, Padres or Yankees?",
      "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-playoffs-divisional-series-best-chance-comeback-guardians-padres-yankees/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-06",
      "published_timestamp": "2026-10-06T20:10:36+00:00",
      "id": "s3",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08T11:11:09.300300+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "validation_context": {
    "input_through": "2026-10-07",
    "training_through": "2026-08-08",
    "calibration_through": "2026-09-07",
    "test_start": "2026-09-08",
    "test_end": "2026-10-07"
  },
  "model_data_dates": {
    "history_through": "2026-10-07",
    "weights_trained_through": "2026-08-08"
  },
  "model_required": true
}