{
  "as_of": "2026-10-14T11:11:29.315470+00:00",
  "sport": "MLB",
  "data_readiness": {
    "ready": true,
    "briefing_at": "2026-10-14T11:10:32.051774+00:00",
    "board_at": "2026-10-14T11:07:39.517965Z",
    "model_checked_at": "2026-10-14T11:07:43.687888Z",
    "required_history_through": "2026-10-13",
    "history_through": "2026-10-13",
    "reason": "Current data checks passed"
  },
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "total-622fd31d2c8178b025455656e0d2fb89",
      "sport": "MLB",
      "game": "Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers",
      "commence_time": "2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00",
      "start_label": "Wed 08:00 PM ET",
      "median": 7.5,
      "minimum": 7.0,
      "maximum": 7.5,
      "books": {
        "fanduel": 7.5,
        "draftkings": 7.5,
        "williamhill_us": 7.5,
        "betmgm": 7.5,
        "mybookieag": 7.5,
        "betonlineag": 7.5,
        "lowvig": 7.5,
        "fanatics": 7.5,
        "bovada": 7.5,
        "betus": 7.5,
        "betrivers": 7.0
      },
      "quotes": [
        {
          "book": "betrivers",
          "label": "BetRivers",
          "line": 7.0,
          "over_price": -122,
          "under_price": 100,
          "quoted_at": "2026-10-14T11:09:27+00:00"
        },
        {
          "book": "lowvig",
          "label": "LowVig.ag",
          "line": 7.5,
          "over_price": -103,
          "under_price": -112,
          "quoted_at": "2026-10-14T11:09:59+00:00"
        },
        {
          "book": "mybookieag",
          "label": "MyBookie.ag",
          "line": 7.5,
          "over_price": -106,
          "under_price": -115,
          "quoted_at": "2026-10-14T11:09:27+00:00"
        },
        {
          "book": "betonlineag",
          "label": "BetOnline.ag",
          "line": 7.5,
          "over_price": -106,
          "under_price": -114,
          "quoted_at": "2026-10-14T11:09:58+00:00"
        }
      ],
      "previous_books": {
        "betmgm": 7.5,
        "betonlineag": 7.5,
        "betrivers": 7.0,
        "betus": 7.5,
        "bovada": 7.5,
        "draftkings": 7.5,
        "fanatics": 7.5,
        "fanduel": 7.5,
        "lowvig": 7.5,
        "mybookieag": 7.5,
        "williamhill_us": 7.5
      },
      "change_from": "2026-10-13T23:20:15.934877+00:00",
      "change": 0.0,
      "change_label": "+0 (11 matched books)",
      "low": {
        "label": "LowVig.ag",
        "line": 7.5,
        "over": "-103",
        "under": "-112",
        "lone": [
          {
            "label": "BetRivers",
            "line": 7.0,
            "over": "-122",
            "under": "+100"
          }
        ]
      },
      "high": {
        "label": "LowVig.ag",
        "line": 7.5,
        "over": "-103",
        "under": "-112",
        "lone": []
      },
      "model": null,
      "quote_selection": "Selected books only; range/median use all observed books"
    }
  ],
  "model_rows": [
    {
      "id": "model-5",
      "event_id": "622fd31d2c8178b025455656e0d2fb89",
      "game": "Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers",
      "commence_time": "2026-10-15T00:00:00Z",
      "book": "bovada",
      "book_label": "Bovada",
      "market": "pitcher_outs",
      "market_label": "Pitcher outs",
      "player": "Blake Snell",
      "side": "Under",
      "line": 14.5,
      "price": 140.0,
      "book_probability": 0.4166666666666667,
      "consensus_probability": 0.3991590294701167,
      "fair_probability": 0.39325842696629215,
      "paired_books": 4,
      "best_price": true,
      "quoted_at": "2026-10-14T11:07:24Z",
      "model_probability": 0.5321558901248739,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "model_conditional_probability": 0.5321558901248739,
      "model_mean": 14.136554590443698,
      "model_mean_label": "Projected pitcher outs",
      "model_ev_pct": 27.717413629969723,
      "model_edge_pp": 11.548922345820717,
      "model_fair_price": -114,
      "model_inputs": {
        "Recent starter outings": 13,
        "Starter outs/start, last five": 13.14,
        "Starter strikeouts per batter faced": 0.281,
        "Opponent strikeouts per PA": 0.228
      },
      "model_status": "Experimental estimate; not validated against betting prices.",
      "is_model_pick": true,
      "model_input_through": "2026-10-13",
      "model_version": "mlb-v1.0-86c27865bf2dc57b-2026-10-13",
      "lineup_status": "Awaiting published batting orders"
    },
    {
      "id": "model-4",
      "event_id": "622fd31d2c8178b025455656e0d2fb89",
      "game": "Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers",
      "commence_time": "2026-10-15T00:00:00Z",
      "book": "betmgm",
      "book_label": "BetMGM",
      "market": "pitcher_strikeouts",
      "market_label": "Pitcher strikeouts",
      "player": "Robert Gasser",
      "side": "Over",
      "line": 3.5,
      "price": 100.0,
      "book_probability": 0.5,
      "consensus_probability": 0.48726189542996,
      "fair_probability": 0.4653465346534653,
      "paired_books": 7,
      "best_price": true,
      "quoted_at": "2026-10-14T11:05:59Z",
      "model_probability": 0.5805586020500381,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "model_conditional_probability": 0.5805586020500381,
      "model_mean": 3.90283792304456,
      "model_mean_label": "Projected pitcher strikeouts",
      "model_ev_pct": 16.111720410007614,
      "model_edge_pp": 8.055860205003807,
      "model_fair_price": -138,
      "model_inputs": {
        "Recent starter outings": 15,
        "Starter outs/start, last five": 15.86,
        "Starter strikeouts per batter faced": 0.215,
        "Opponent strikeouts per PA": 0.211
      },
      "model_status": "Experimental estimate; not validated against betting prices.",
      "is_model_pick": true,
      "model_input_through": "2026-10-13",
      "model_version": "mlb-v1.0-86c27865bf2dc57b-2026-10-13",
      "lineup_status": "Awaiting published batting orders"
    }
  ],
  "model_references": [],
  "model_availability": [
    {
      "event_id": "",
      "game": "Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers",
      "available": true,
      "forecast_count": 112,
      "eligible_pick_count": 6,
      "statuses": [
        "Experimental estimate; not validated against betting prices."
      ]
    }
  ],
  "methods": "## Feature windows\n\nAll windows also have a 370-day maximum lookback.\n\n- Team: last 40 games; runs scored/allowed, PA and K/H/HR/BB/TB rates. Bullpen RA/9 is computed from team pitching minus the starter. Bullpen workload is pitches in the previous three calendar days.\n- Pitcher: last 15 starts; last-five outs and pitches, batters faced, K/BB/H/HR rates, runs per out, and rest capped at 30 days.\n- Batter: last 60 appearances; rates per PA, last 20 starting appearances for PA context, original/published batting slot and a transparent projected-PA input.\n- Park: last 100 games at the venue, shrunk by 40 games toward nine combined runs. This is a venue scoring indicator, not an isolated park factor; home-team quality can influence it.\n- Matchup: home/away and postseason indicators; own and opponent team and starter features.\n\nSmall samples shrink toward fixed league-like priors. Missing players do not receive public league-average or 50% predictions. Teams require ten prior games, each probable starter three prior starts, and hitters 50 prior PA plus a published lineup match.\n\nThese mod",
  "model_status": "Independent MLB forecasts available",
  "limitations": "NFL injury adjustments are not established by this evidence. A live total is not a prop forecast. Only validated fresh model rows are included. Historical quotes are not openers.",
  "target_game": {
    "event_id": "622fd31d2c8178b025455656e0d2fb89",
    "game": "Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers",
    "commence_time": "2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00",
    "selection": "qualified-selection",
    "model_availability": {
      "event_id": "",
      "game": "Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers",
      "available": true,
      "forecast_count": 112,
      "eligible_pick_count": 6,
      "statuses": [
        "Experimental estimate; not validated against betting prices."
      ]
    }
  },
  "reporting": [
    {
      "title": "2026 MLB playoff bracket: Schedule, scores for Brewers vs. Dodgers and Rays vs. Guardians",
      "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2026-mlb-playoff-bracket-schedule-scores-results-how-to-watch/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14",
      "published_timestamp": "2026-10-14T03:15:05+00:00",
      "id": "s1",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T11:11:29.315470+00:00"
    },
    {
      "title": "Brewers-Dodgers NLCS Game 3 FAQ (8 p.m. ET, FS1/FOX One)",
      "url": "https://www.mlb.com/news/brewers-dodgers-nl-championship-series-game-3-starting-lineups-and-pitching-matchup",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14",
      "published_timestamp": "2026-10-14T02:13:00+00:00",
      "id": "s2",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T11:11:29.315470+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "validation_context": {
    "input_through": "2026-10-13",
    "training_through": "2026-08-14",
    "calibration_through": "2026-09-13",
    "test_start": "2026-09-14",
    "test_end": "2026-10-13"
  },
  "model_data_dates": {
    "history_through": "2026-10-13",
    "weights_trained_through": "2026-08-14"
  },
  "model_required": true
}