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    "under_price": -102,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T15:58:02+00:00"
   },
   {
    "book": "betonlineag",
    "label": "BetOnline.ag",
    "line": 6.5,
    "over_price": -113,
    "under_price": -107,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T15:58:44+00:00"
   },
   {
    "book": "bovada",
    "label": "Bovada",
    "line": 6.5,
    "over_price": -115,
    "under_price": -105,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T15:58:05+00:00"
   },
   {
    "book": "betrivers",
    "label": "BetRivers",
    "line": 6.5,
    "over_price": -109,
    "under_price": -112,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T15:58:46+00:00"
   },
   {
    "book": "williamhill_us",
    "label": "Caesars",
    "line": 6.5,
    "over_price": -107,
    "under_price": -112,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T15:57:35+00:00"
   },
   {
    "book": "betus",
    "label": "BetUS",
    "line": 6.5,
    "over_price": -115,
    "under_price": -105,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T15:58:47+00:00"
   },
   {
    "book": "fanatics",
    "label": "Fanatics",
    "line": 6.5,
    "over_price": -115,
    "under_price": -105,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T15:58:23+00:00"
   }
  ]
 },
 "analyst_reviews": [
  {
   "player": "Nick Martinez",
   "market": "pitcher_outs",
   "side": "Over",
   "line": 13.5,
   "price": 108,
   "book_label": "FanDuel",
   "verdict": "consider",
   "reason": "Martinez's projection sits just above 13.5. The +108 price needs only a little under a coin flip. The case is narrow and rests on a short postseason leash not cutting his recent length."
  },
  {
   "player": "",
   "market": "h2h",
   "side": "Tampa Bay Rays",
   "line": null,
   "price": 165,
   "book_label": "BetRivers",
   "verdict": "pass",
   "reason": "+165 matches the ten-book consensus, so there is no price premium. All of the value depends on the model rating the Rays near even money, while its own inputs favor Milwaukee."
  },
  {
   "player": "Jacob Misiorowski",
   "market": "pitcher_outs",
   "side": "Under",
   "line": 15.5,
   "price": 100,
   "book_label": "BetMGM",
   "verdict": "consider",
   "reason": "Misiorowski's recent length (about 13.7 outs) and projection (about 14.4) both sit below the 15.5 line. Even money needs a coin flip. The direction holds unless extra rest leads to a longer outing."
  },
  {
   "player": "",
   "market": "totals",
   "side": "Under",
   "line": 6.5,
   "price": -105,
   "book_label": "BetUS",
   "verdict": "pass",
   "reason": "The under rests only on an unverified research lead. The original model projects far more scoring than 6.5, and the price is near even across a broad book set with no visible edge."
  },
  {
   "player": "Jacob Misiorowski",
   "market": "pitcher_strikeouts",
   "side": "Under",
   "line": 6.5,
   "price": 102,
   "book_label": "DraftKings",
   "verdict": "consider",
   "reason": "The projected strikeout mean sits modestly below 6.5 against a contact-heavy opponent. The case is thin and depends heavily on workload, but no material blocker is identified."
  },
  {
   "player": "Nick Martinez",
   "market": "pitcher_strikeouts",
   "side": "Under",
   "line": 3.5,
   "price": -156,
   "book_label": "DraftKings",
   "verdict": "pass",
   "reason": "The line is already set at 3.5, which absorbs most of the low-strikeout angle. The projected mean sits above it, and -156 is steeper than the multi-book consensus."
  }
 ],
 "postseason_results": [
  {
   "team": "Brewers",
   "game": "NLDS 1",
   "date_et": "2026-10-03",
   "opponent": "Padres",
   "runs_for": 3,
   "runs_against": 2,
   "total_runs": 5,
   "recorded_total": 7.0,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-03T22:50:49.052428+00:00",
   "total_result": "under",
   "margin_two_or_more": false
  },
  {
   "team": "Brewers",
   "game": "NLDS 2",
   "date_et": "2026-10-04",
   "opponent": "Padres",
   "runs_for": 4,
   "runs_against": 3,
   "total_runs": 7,
   "recorded_total": 7.0,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-04T16:01:22.545054+00:00",
   "total_result": "push",
   "margin_two_or_more": false
  },
  {
   "team": "Brewers",
   "game": "NLDS 3",
   "date_et": "2026-10-06",
   "opponent": "Padres",
   "runs_for": 3,
   "runs_against": 4,
   "total_runs": 7,
   "recorded_total": 7.5,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-07T00:43:24.254505+00:00",
   "total_result": "under",
   "margin_two_or_more": false
  },
  {
   "team": "Brewers",
   "game": "NLDS 4",
   "date_et": "2026-10-07",
   "opponent": "Padres",
   "runs_for": 3,
   "runs_against": 1,
   "total_runs": 4,
   "recorded_total": 7.5,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-08T01:01:28.234601+00:00",
   "total_result": "under",
   "margin_two_or_more": true
  },
  {
   "team": "Brewers",
   "game": "NLCS 1",
   "date_et": "2026-10-11",
   "opponent": "Dodgers",
   "runs_for": 2,
   "runs_against": 1,
   "total_runs": 3,
   "recorded_total": 6.0,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-11T20:17:37.609550+00:00",
   "total_result": "under",
   "margin_two_or_more": false
  },
  {
   "team": "Brewers",
   "game": "NLCS 2",
   "date_et": "2026-10-12",
   "opponent": "Dodgers",
   "runs_for": 7,
   "runs_against": 4,
   "total_runs": 11,
   "recorded_total": 7.0,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:28:02.060821+00:00",
   "total_result": "over",
   "margin_two_or_more": true
  },
  {
   "team": "Brewers",
   "game": "NLCS 3",
   "date_et": "2026-10-14",
   "opponent": "Dodgers",
   "runs_for": 6,
   "runs_against": 2,
   "total_runs": 8,
   "recorded_total": 7.5,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-14T23:10:24.691512+00:00",
   "total_result": "over",
   "margin_two_or_more": true
  },
  {
   "team": "Brewers",
   "game": "NLCS 4",
   "date_et": "2026-10-15",
   "opponent": "Dodgers",
   "runs_for": 6,
   "runs_against": 4,
   "total_runs": 10,
   "recorded_total": 7.5,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-15T22:19:10.936842+00:00",
   "total_result": "over",
   "margin_two_or_more": true
  },
  {
   "team": "Rays",
   "game": "ALDS 1",
   "date_et": "2026-10-03",
   "opponent": "Yankees",
   "runs_for": 1,
   "runs_against": 0,
   "total_runs": 1,
   "recorded_total": 7.0,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-03T17:17:31.205453+00:00",
   "total_result": "under",
   "margin_two_or_more": false
  },
  {
   "team": "Rays",
   "game": "ALDS 2",
   "date_et": "2026-10-05",
   "opponent": "Yankees",
   "runs_for": 5,
   "runs_against": 2,
   "total_runs": 7,
   "recorded_total": 6.5,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-05T18:28:42.323442+00:00",
   "total_result": "over",
   "margin_two_or_more": true
  },
  {
   "team": "Rays",
   "game": "ALDS 3",
   "date_et": "2026-10-07",
   "opponent": "Yankees",
   "runs_for": 4,
   "runs_against": 3,
   "total_runs": 7,
   "recorded_total": 7.0,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-07T18:00:13.861158+00:00",
   "total_result": "push",
   "margin_two_or_more": false
  },
  {
   "team": "Rays",
   "game": "ALCS 1",
   "date_et": "2026-10-12",
   "opponent": "Guardians",
   "runs_for": 3,
   "runs_against": 7,
   "total_runs": 10,
   "recorded_total": 6.5,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:28:02.060821+00:00",
   "total_result": "over",
   "margin_two_or_more": true
  },
  {
   "team": "Rays",
   "game": "ALCS 2",
   "date_et": "2026-10-13",
   "opponent": "Guardians",
   "runs_for": 3,
   "runs_against": 1,
   "total_runs": 4,
   "recorded_total": 6.5,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T23:20:15.934877+00:00",
   "total_result": "under",
   "margin_two_or_more": true
  },
  {
   "team": "Rays",
   "game": "ALCS 3",
   "date_et": "2026-10-15",
   "opponent": "Guardians",
   "runs_for": 2,
   "runs_against": 3,
   "total_runs": 5,
   "recorded_total": 6.5,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-14T16:01:10.683656+00:00",
   "total_result": "under",
   "margin_two_or_more": false
  },
  {
   "team": "Rays",
   "game": "ALCS 4",
   "date_et": "2026-10-17",
   "opponent": "Guardians",
   "runs_for": 7,
   "runs_against": 3,
   "total_runs": 10,
   "recorded_total": 6.5,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-17T11:11:54.770790+00:00",
   "total_result": "over",
   "margin_two_or_more": true
  },
  {
   "team": "Rays",
   "game": "ALCS 5",
   "date_et": "2026-10-18",
   "opponent": "Guardians",
   "runs_for": 3,
   "runs_against": 1,
   "total_runs": 4,
   "recorded_total": null,
   "recorded_at": null,
   "margin_two_or_more": true
  },
  {
   "team": "Rays",
   "game": "ALCS 6",
   "date_et": "2026-10-19",
   "opponent": "Guardians",
   "runs_for": 7,
   "runs_against": 3,
   "total_runs": 10,
   "recorded_total": null,
   "recorded_at": null,
   "margin_two_or_more": true
  }
 ],
 "model_version": "mlb-v1.0-9c00e368f072ae55-2026-10-19",
 "validation_context": {
  "version": "mlb-v1.0-9c00e368f072ae55-2026-10-19",
  "pitcher_outs": {
   "regular": {
    "games": 103,
    "brier_skill": 0.0921,
    "ece": 0.050169,
    "mean_prediction": 15.5947,
    "mean_actual": 14.385,
    "passed": false
   },
   "postseason": {
    "games": 46,
    "brier_skill": 0.0425,
    "ece": 0.11812,
    "mean_prediction": 16.1722,
    "mean_actual": 14.2989,
    "passed": true
   }
  }
 },
 "methods": [
  "Consensus probabilities remove each book’s margin and pair books quoting the same line.",
  "Recorded totals are the median line in the last briefing snapshot before first pitch, not a verified closing line.",
  "Final scores come from published reporting; Fourth & Value does not store MLB final scores."
 ],
 "limitations": [
  "Fixed threshold grids, not archived historical bookmaker lines; no historical ROI claim.",
  "Historical evaluation conditions on actual starters and original batting order; archived pregame announcements are unavailable.",
  "Postseason audit is small and uses an earlier model fitted before that postseason; upcoming playoff accuracy is unproven.",
  "No explicit handedness, weather, injury, umpire or tactical pinch-hit adjustments.",
  "Park estimates are shrunk venue scoring averages and can include home-team effects.",
  "Joint team-run approximation conditions out ties; extra-inning dynamics are not simulated pitch by pitch.",
  "Every Fourth & Value model is experimental and has not been validated against betting prices.",
  "Prices are dated and can change before first pitch; batting orders were not posted at the morning check."
 ],
 "pitcher_outs_late_check": {
  "checked_at": "2026-10-23T20:32:37.135986Z",
  "rows": [
   {
    "book_label": "FanDuel",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Jacob Misiorowski",
    "side": "Over",
    "line": 16.5,
    "price": 102.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:32:02Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.46209273182957394,
    "consensus_probability": 0.4809885931558936,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.25824653910922146,
    "model_status": "No pick: estimated value is below the 3% EV threshold"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "FanDuel",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Jacob Misiorowski",
    "side": "Under",
    "line": 16.5,
    "price": -136.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:32:02Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.5379072681704261,
    "consensus_probability": 0.5190114068441064,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.7417534608907785,
    "model_status": "No pick: a better price is available at the same line"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "FanDuel",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Nick Martinez",
    "side": "Over",
    "line": 13.5,
    "price": 102.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:32:02Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.46209273182957394,
    "consensus_probability": 0.46209273182957394,
    "paired_books": 1,
    "model_probability": 0.6214991172700565,
    "model_status": "Research forecast: fewer than two paired books at this line"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "FanDuel",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Nick Martinez",
    "side": "Under",
    "line": 13.5,
    "price": -136.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:32:02Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.5379072681704261,
    "consensus_probability": 0.5379072681704261,
    "paired_books": 1,
    "model_probability": 0.3785008827299436,
    "model_status": "Research forecast: fewer than two paired books at this line"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "DraftKings",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Jacob Misiorowski",
    "side": "Over",
    "line": 16.5,
    "price": -106.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:32:36Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.4808467741935484,
    "consensus_probability": 0.4809885931558936,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.25824653910922146,
    "model_status": "No pick: estimated value is below the 3% EV threshold"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "DraftKings",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Jacob Misiorowski",
    "side": "Under",
    "line": 16.5,
    "price": -125.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:32:36Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.5191532258064516,
    "consensus_probability": 0.5190114068441064,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.7417534608907785,
    "model_status": "Research forecast: unusually large discrepancy needs manual review"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "DraftKings",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Nick Martinez",
    "side": "Over",
    "line": 12.5,
    "price": -137.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:32:36Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.5399040981537924,
    "consensus_probability": 0.5351054952914531,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.7102889483618499,
    "model_status": "No pick: a better price is available at the same line"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "DraftKings",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Nick Martinez",
    "side": "Under",
    "line": 12.5,
    "price": 103.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:32:36Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.4600959018462076,
    "consensus_probability": 0.46489450470854693,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.28971105163815014,
    "model_status": "No pick: estimated value is below the 3% EV threshold"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "BetMGM",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Nick Martinez",
    "side": "Over",
    "line": 12.5,
    "price": -125.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:32:02Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.5147058823529411,
    "consensus_probability": 0.5351054952914531,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.7102889483618499,
    "model_status": "Eligible experimental model pick"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "BetMGM",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Nick Martinez",
    "side": "Under",
    "line": 12.5,
    "price": -110.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:32:02Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.48529411764705876,
    "consensus_probability": 0.46489450470854693,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.28971105163815014,
    "model_status": "No pick: estimated value is below the 3% EV threshold"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "BetMGM",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Jacob Misiorowski",
    "side": "Over",
    "line": 16.5,
    "price": -110.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:32:02Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.48987854251012153,
    "consensus_probability": 0.4809885931558936,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.25824653910922146,
    "model_status": "No pick: estimated value is below the 3% EV threshold"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "BetMGM",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Jacob Misiorowski",
    "side": "Under",
    "line": 16.5,
    "price": -120.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:32:02Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.5101214574898786,
    "consensus_probability": 0.5190114068441064,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.7417534608907785,
    "model_status": "Research forecast: unusually large discrepancy needs manual review"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "Bovada",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Jacob Misiorowski",
    "side": "Over",
    "line": 16.5,
    "price": -110.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:31:28Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.4809885931558936,
    "consensus_probability": 0.4809885931558936,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.25824653910922146,
    "model_status": "No pick: estimated value is below the 3% EV threshold"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "Bovada",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Jacob Misiorowski",
    "side": "Under",
    "line": 16.5,
    "price": -130.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:31:28Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.5190114068441064,
    "consensus_probability": 0.5190114068441064,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.7417534608907785,
    "model_status": "Research forecast: unusually large discrepancy needs manual review"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "Bovada",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Nick Martinez",
    "side": "Over",
    "line": 12.5,
    "price": -140.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:31:28Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.5384615384615384,
    "consensus_probability": 0.5351054952914531,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.7102889483618499,
    "model_status": "No pick: a better price is available at the same line"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "Bovada",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Nick Martinez",
    "side": "Under",
    "line": 12.5,
    "price": 100.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:31:28Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.46153846153846145,
    "consensus_probability": 0.46489450470854693,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.28971105163815014,
    "model_status": "No pick: estimated value is below the 3% EV threshold"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "BetRivers",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Nick Martinez",
    "side": "Over",
    "line": 12.5,
    "price": -134.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:32:00Z",
    "fair_probability": null,
    "consensus_probability": 0.5351054952914531,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.7102889483618499,
    "model_status": "Research forecast: fewer than two paired books at this line"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "BetRivers",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Jacob Misiorowski",
    "side": "Over",
    "line": 16.5,
    "price": -113.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:32:00Z",
    "fair_probability": null,
    "consensus_probability": 0.4809885931558936,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.25824653910922146,
    "model_status": "Research forecast: fewer than two paired books at this line"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "Caesars",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Nick Martinez",
    "side": "Over",
    "line": 12.5,
    "price": -134.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:32:33Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.5351054952914531,
    "consensus_probability": 0.5351054952914531,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.7102889483618499,
    "model_status": "No pick: a better price is available at the same line"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "Caesars",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Nick Martinez",
    "side": "Under",
    "line": 12.5,
    "price": 101.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:32:33Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.46489450470854693,
    "consensus_probability": 0.46489450470854693,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.28971105163815014,
    "model_status": "No pick: estimated value is below the 3% EV threshold"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "Caesars",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Jacob Misiorowski",
    "side": "Over",
    "line": 16.5,
    "price": -107.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:32:33Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.481981981981982,
    "consensus_probability": 0.4809885931558936,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.25824653910922146,
    "model_status": "No pick: estimated value is below the 3% EV threshold"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "Caesars",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Jacob Misiorowski",
    "side": "Under",
    "line": 16.5,
    "price": -125.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:32:33Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.5180180180180181,
    "consensus_probability": 0.5190114068441064,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.7417534608907785,
    "model_status": "Research forecast: unusually large discrepancy needs manual review"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "Fanatics",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Nick Martinez",
    "side": "Over",
    "line": 12.5,
    "price": -135.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:30:33Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.5286532951289399,
    "consensus_probability": 0.5351054952914531,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.7102889483618499,
    "model_status": "No pick: a better price is available at the same line"
   },
   {
    "book_label": "Fanatics",
    "market": "pitcher_outs",
    "player": "Nick Martinez",
    "side": "Under",
    "line": 12.5,
    "price": -105.0,
    "quoted_at": "2026-10-23T20:30:33Z",
    "fair_probability": 0.4713467048710602,
    "consensus_probability": 0.46489450470854693,
    "paired_books": 5,
    "model_probability": 0.28971105163815014,
    "model_status": "No pick: estimated value is below the 3% EV threshold"
   }
  ]
 }
}