{ "as_of": "2026-10-24T11:14:12.320983+00:00", "sport": "MLB", "data_readiness": { "ready": true, "briefing_at": "2026-10-24T11:12:55.637837+00:00", "board_at": "2026-10-24T11:07:45.840218Z", "model_checked_at": "2026-10-24T11:07:49.794234Z", "required_history_through": "2026-10-23", "history_through": "2026-10-23", "reason": "Current data checks passed" }, "markets": [ { "id": "total-238f598685f7210fbfbbe3de39289264", "sport": "MLB", "game": "Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers", "commence_time": "2026-10-25T00:00:00+00:00", "start_label": "Sat 08:00 PM ET", "median": 6.5, "minimum": 6.5, "maximum": 6.5, "books": { "draftkings": 6.5, "mybookieag": 6.5, "fanduel": 6.5, "betmgm": 6.5, "fanatics": 6.5, "betonlineag": 6.5, "lowvig": 6.5, "bovada": 6.5, "betus": 6.5, "williamhill_us": 6.5, "betrivers": 6.5 }, "quotes": [ { "book": "betrivers", "label": "BetRivers", "line": 6.5, "over_price": -103, "under_price": -120, "quoted_at": "2026-10-24T11:12:25+00:00" }, { "book": "betmgm", "label": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "over_price": -110, "under_price": -110, "quoted_at": "2026-10-24T11:12:25+00:00" }, { "book": "betonlineag", "label": "BetOnline.ag", "line": 6.5, "over_price": -115, "under_price": -105, "quoted_at": "2026-10-24T11:12:25+00:00" }, { "book": "betus", "label": "BetUS", "line": 6.5, "over_price": -115, "under_price": -105, "quoted_at": "2026-10-24T11:12:04+00:00" } ], "previous_books": {}, "change_from": "2026-10-23T22:12:20.045604+00:00", "change": null, "change_label": "First comparable snapshot", "low": { "label": "BetRivers", "line": 6.5, "over": "-103", "under": "-120", "lone": [] }, "high": { "label": "LowVig.ag", "line": 6.5, "over": "-113", "under": "-102", "lone": [] }, "model": null, "quote_selection": "Selected books only; range/median use all observed books" } ], "model_rows": [ { "id": "model-2", "event_id": "238f598685f7210fbfbbe3de39289264", "game": "Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers", "commence_time": "2026-10-25T00:00:00Z", "book": "betrivers", "book_label": "BetRivers", "market": "totals", "market_label": "Game total", "player": "", "side": "Over", "line": 6.5, "price": -103.0, "book_probability": 0.5073891625615764, "consensus_probability": 0.5054504229528212, "fair_probability": 0.4819225861335602, "paired_books": 11, "best_price": true, "quoted_at": "2026-10-24T11:07:01Z", "model_probability": 0.6027199147154154, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "model_conditional_probability": 0.6027199147154154, "model_mean": 7.9348799915353645, "model_median": 7, "model_mean_label": "Projected total runs", "model_ev_pct": 18.788488045853725, "model_edge_pp": 9.533075215383901, "model_fair_price": -152, "model_inputs": { "home recent runs/game": 5.25, "away recent runs/game": 4.52, "home starter recent RA/9": 3.25, "away starter recent RA/9": 2.35 }, "model_status": "Experimental estimate; not validated against betting prices.", "is_model_pick": true, "model_input_through": "2026-10-23", "model_version": "mlb-v1.0-9c00e368f072ae55-2026-10-23", "lineup_status": "Awaiting published batting orders" } ], "model_references": [], "model_availability": [ { "event_id": "", "game": "Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers", "available": true, "forecast_count": 108, "eligible_pick_count": 7, "statuses": [ "Experimental estimate; not validated against betting prices." ] } ], "methods": "## Feature windows\n\nAll windows also have a 370-day maximum lookback.\n\n- Team: last 40 games; runs scored/allowed, PA and K/H/HR/BB/TB rates. Bullpen RA/9 is computed from team pitching minus the starter. Bullpen workload is pitches in the previous three calendar days.\n- Pitcher: last 15 starts; last-five outs and pitches, batters faced, K/BB/H/HR rates, runs per out, and rest capped at 30 days.\n- Batter: last 60 appearances; rates per PA, last 20 starting appearances for PA context, original/published batting slot and a transparent projected-PA input.\n- Park: last 100 games at the venue, shrunk by 40 games toward nine combined runs. This is a venue scoring indicator, not an isolated park factor; home-team quality can influence it.\n- Matchup: home/away and postseason indicators; own and opponent team and starter features.\n\nSmall samples shrink toward fixed league-like priors. Missing players do not receive public league-average or 50% predictions. Teams require ten prior games, each probable starter three prior starts, and hitters 50 prior PA plus a published lineup match.\n\nThese mod", "model_status": "Independent MLB forecasts available", "limitations": "NFL injury adjustments are not established by this evidence. A live total is not a prop forecast. Only validated fresh model rows are included. Historical quotes are not openers.", "target_game": { "event_id": "238f598685f7210fbfbbe3de39289264", "game": "Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers", "commence_time": "2026-10-25T00:00:00+00:00", "selection": "qualified-selection", "model_availability": { "event_id": "", "game": "Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers", "available": true, "forecast_count": 108, "eligible_pick_count": 7, "statuses": [ "Experimental estimate; not validated against betting prices." ] } }, "reporting": [ { "title": "None of Rays' best relievers pitched in Game 1 -- and that could be a good thing", "url": "https://www.mlb.com/news/rays-bullpen-management-game-1-world-series-loss", "published_at": "2026-10-24", "published_timestamp": "2026-10-24T07:03:02+00:00", "id": "s1", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-24T11:14:12.320983+00:00" }, { "title": "Captain sets tone for Crew: Yelich's RBI triple has teammates 'pumped'", "url": "https://www.mlb.com/news/christian-yelich-brewers-world-series-game-1-2026", "published_at": "2026-10-24", "published_timestamp": "2026-10-24T06:56:36+00:00", "id": "s2", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-24T11:14:12.320983+00:00" }, { "title": "Rust? What rust? Brewers open World Series refreshed and ready thanks to all that winning", "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2026-world-series-brewers-rested-rays/", "published_at": "2026-10-24", "published_timestamp": "2026-10-24T04:30:01+00:00", "id": "s3", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-24T11:14:12.320983+00:00" } ], "validation_context": { "input_through": "2026-10-23", "training_through": "2026-08-24", "calibration_through": "2026-09-23", "test_start": "2026-09-24", "test_end": "2026-10-23" }, "model_data_dates": { "history_through": "2026-10-23", "weights_trained_through": "2026-08-24" }, "model_required": true, "eastern_times": { "2026-10-23T22:12:20.045604+00:00": "Fri, Oct 23, 2026, 6:12 PM EDT", "2026-10-24T04:30:01+00:00": "Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 12:30 AM EDT", "2026-10-24T06:56:36+00:00": "Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 2:56 AM EDT", "2026-10-24T07:03:02+00:00": "Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 3:03 AM EDT", "2026-10-24T11:07:01Z": "Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:07 AM EDT", "2026-10-24T11:07:45.840218Z": "Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:07 AM EDT", "2026-10-24T11:07:49.794234Z": "Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:07 AM EDT", "2026-10-24T11:12:04+00:00": "Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:12 AM EDT", "2026-10-24T11:12:25+00:00": "Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:12 AM EDT", "2026-10-24T11:12:55.637837+00:00": "Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:12 AM EDT", "2026-10-24T11:14:12.320983+00:00": "Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:14 AM EDT", "2026-10-25T00:00:00+00:00": "Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 8:00 PM EDT", "2026-10-25T00:00:00Z": "Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 8:00 PM EDT" } }