We build probability models from historical data—tracking player performance, matchups, and game contexts—to derive fair odds and identify edges against sportsbook lines.
Fourth & Value covers NFL (weekly) and NHL (daily), comparing sportsbook lines to our model projections and surfacing what's worth your time.
We derive fair odds from model probabilities and show basis-point edges vs the market.
We highlight the best available book per bet plus a consensus view across books.
Statistical models built on historical performance data with practical, actionable presentation.
We offer our services free of charge. We're here for fun, for the love of data, and for the people.