Blog
Commentary, updates, and explainers from Fourth & Value.
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What is Structural Arbitrage? When Sportsbooks Contradict Themselves
Structural arbitrage sounds complicated, but it's actually one of the simplest edges in sports betting: finding situations where a sportsbook's own lines contradict each other. We break down exactly what this means using a real Adam Trautman example with 4.33 implied YPR.
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Raiders @ Broncos: Tyler Lockett — Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Books posting lines from 15.5 to 18.5 yards—a 3-yard spread showing market uncertainty. Model projects 4.5 yards with defensive adjustments for Broncos secondary. Lockett has hit 18.5+ yards in just 2 of 8 games (25% rate) with median of 3.0 yards.
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Saints @ Rams: Tyler Shough — Under 0.5 Pass TDs (+120)
Our model projects Shough for 0.01 passing touchdowns with 99.1% confidence in the under. Line moved from +145 to +120 since our analysis, confirming the market is catching up. Edge remains substantial at current number (~5,350 bps).
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🏟️ Home Field Advantage: Why Location Matters in NFL Player Props
You can't handicap player props without accounting for where the game is played. Home teams run 3-6% more efficient offenses across all positions. Our model now integrates location-based adjustments with evidence-based multipliers (±3% to ±6%), creating 6-12% swings in projections between home and away games.
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⏰ Why Sharp Bettors Get In Early — The Professional Timing Edge
The professional edge isn't just better models—it's timing. Early lines offer softer numbers, lower vig, and flexibility before the market tightens. We break down why Monday bets beat Sunday bets, with a live Week 6 example.
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🧬 When Books Contradict Themselves — and Why Our Model Doesn't
How family-based modeling surfaces market inefficiency. Tonight's KC @ JAX has 11 incoherent book lines, including Isiah Pacheco's 4.33 YPR across six sportsbooks — pure arbitrage created by independent line-setting.
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Sunday Night Football 🔥 James Cook — Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Our model projects Cook for 113 rushing yards, comfortably above the FanDuel line of 72.5 and market consensus of 73. Recent usage trends suggest value on the over.
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How sportsbooks make money (and why we devig)
Sportsbooks don't predict the future — they charge a fee (vig). This post shows how vig works, how to devig to get fair probabilities, and why our tables use Market % vs Model %.