Home Field Advantage: Why Location Matters in NFL Player Props
Why It Matters
You probably know that home-field advantage matters. What most bettors haven't done is quantify it — especially at the player level.
It's easy to think of "home field" as just crowd noise or comfort. But when you model player performance week to week, location quietly shifts outcomes across almost every stat line. Quarterbacks throw cleaner balls. Receivers run sharper routes. Offensive lines jump less. The result: small, measurable efficiency bumps that add up over hundreds of plays.
When you're betting player props, you're not handicapping the player in a vacuum—you're handicapping the environment. A road QB at 240.5 yards isn't the same bet as a home QB at 240.5.
That's why Fourth & Value now integrates location-based adjustments directly into every projection.
The Measurable Edge
Across decades of NFL data, home teams:
- Score 2–4 more points per game on average
- Run 3–6% more efficient offenses
- Commit fewer offensive penalties
When you translate those margins into player production, the effect becomes clear — especially in passing markets where rhythm, cadence, and communication matter most.
Here's how the model now accounts for it:
| Market | Home | Away | Total Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Yards | +6% | −6% | 12% |
| Pass TDs | +6% | −6% | 12% |
| Interceptions | −5% | +5% | 10% (fewer at home) |
| Rush Yards | +4% | −4% | 8% |
| Rush Attempts | +2% | −2% | 4% |
| Receiving Yards | +6% | −6% | 12% |
| Receptions | +3% | −3% | 6% |
| Anytime TD | +5% | −5% | 10% |
Why the differences?
- Quarterbacks benefit most — cleaner protection and snap timing mean higher passing efficiency
- Rushing volume is less sensitive because it's driven by game script
- Interceptions invert — QBs throw fewer picks at home under calmer conditions
Patrick Mahomes projects to 280 yards at home. On the road? 263 yards (280 × 0.94). That's a 17-yard swing—enough to flip a prop from value to vapor.
How It Shows Up in Week 6
Passing Yards
- Home QBs: 152.1-yard average (n = 3)
- Away QBs: 134.6-yard average (n = 4)
- Difference: +13% advantage at home
A road QB listed at 240.5 yards now projects closer to 226 — a 14-yard gap that turns "fair" lines into potential fades.
Receiving Yards
- Home WRs/TEs: 42.0 yards vs 36.6 away (+15%)
A 60-yard baseline becomes 56 on the road, often tightening the over/under band.
Rushing Yards
- Home RBs: 54.4 yards vs 50.8 away (+7%)
Not dramatic, but enough to shift marginal edges.
Note: Week 6 sample sizes are small, but these align with historical NFL home/away splits—we're not cherry-picking outliers.
Layering Context
Every projection now combines two context layers:
- Opponent Defense (±15%)
- Game Location (±3–6%)
For example:
Road RB vs. tough defense:
Starts at 80 yards → 68 after defense → 65 after location (−18% total)
Home WR vs. weak defense:
Starts at 60 yards → 69 after defense → 73 after location (+22% total)
This stacking creates the variance we want—big spreads between good and bad spots. The biggest edges come from finding props where the books haven't fully priced both layers.
Before and After
Before this update:
Model sees Mahomes at 280 yards → Market offers Over 265.5 → Model thinks "+15 yard edge!" → Reality: He's on the road (263 actual projection) → False edge
After this update:
Model adjusts to 263 yards → Market offers Over 265.5 → Model passes → Avoided a -EV bet
This is what getting closer to market consensus looks like—not by copying Vegas, but by accounting for the same factors sharp books already price in.
Coverage & Transparency
We're applying home/away adjustments to 80.5% of all props (206 out of 256 player-markets in Week 6):
- ✅ 91 home games (35.5%)
- ✅ 115 away games (44.9%)
- ❌ 50 unknown (19.5%) — primarily Defense/Special Teams units and recently traded players
For props without home/away data, we apply no adjustment (conservative approach). This means we're only adjusting when we have high-confidence location data.
What's Next
This is Phase 1 (simple multiplier approach). Here's what's planned:
Phase 2 (Mid-Season 2025):
- Full home/away splits (separate distributions, not just multipliers)
- Requires more data for statistical significance—coming after Week 10
Phase 3 (2026 Season):
- Stadium-specific factors (dome vs outdoor, altitude, noise levels)
- Player-specific home/away splits (some players are true "road warriors")
For now, evidence-based multipliers give us 90% of the edge with 10% of the complexity. We'll iterate as we collect more data.
The Takeaway
Handicapping player props isn't just about the player — it's about the environment.
Defensive matchups, recent form, and now home-field context all matter.
The market already knows it.
Now, our model does too.
📘 See it in action: Home/away adjustments are now baked into all model projections. The model probabilities you see already account for game location.
📖 Full methodology: See the updated Methods page for complete details on how location, defense, and recency interact in our projections.
💬 Questions? Find us on X/Twitter @fourthandvalue.
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