Sunday Night Football 🔥 James Cook — Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

James Cook's rushing yardage prop is one of those situations where the market still seems a step behind what recent usage suggests. We're leaning toward the Over 72.5 rushing yards at -112 on FanDuel, where our projection gives him a clear advantage compared to how books are pricing the line.

Our model projects Cook for roughly 113 rushing yards, comfortably above both the FanDuel line of 72.5 and the market consensus of 73. That's a meaningful gap—large enough to signal value, but not so large that it implies certainty. It reflects what we've been seeing from Cook on the field: a running back with increasing touches and efficiency as Buffalo continues to rely more heavily on its ground game.

The model takes into account how a player's recent games carry more predictive weight than older ones. For Cook, that means the last few weeks—where he's handled more volume and produced consistently strong yardage—drive most of the projection. This approach helps capture real usage trends as they develop rather than averaging out performance across an entire season.

When we compare across sources, the direction is aligned. The sportsbook line sits at 72.5, consensus lines have crept slightly higher, and our internal projection points even further upward. That alignment tells us the market is starting to move, but still hasn't fully priced in the potential for another strong game on the ground.

The matchup supports the lean as well. The Bills are home favorites against New England, which typically means a positive game script—more opportunities to run, control tempo, and protect a lead. The Patriots have also been giving up respectable yardage totals to opposing backs this season, making this a reasonable setup for Cook to continue his trend.

At -112, you're not paying much of a premium for what looks like a favorable number. The model suggests Cook's rushing workload and efficiency should put him in position to exceed this line if the game unfolds as expected. It's not a lock, but it's a data-backed lean toward value on the over.

As always, there are no guarantees—game flow, injuries, or coaching decisions can shift outcomes quickly. But when the recent data, matchup, and pricing all tilt the same way, it's the kind of bet that's worth considering.