Raiders @ Broncos: Tyler Lockett — Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

• 5 min read • Data pulled: Nov 6, 8:24 AM ET

Tyler Lockett's receiving yards prop is one of those situations where the books can't agree on the number, and our model sees a significant opportunity. We're backing Under 18.5 receiving yards at -115 on BetMGM, where the line dispersion across books tells you everything you need to know about market uncertainty.

The Market Can't Find Consensus

Here's what makes this prop interesting: books are posting lines ranging from 15.5 to 18.5 yards—a 3-yard spread on a prop where every yard matters. When you see that kind of disagreement, it's a signal that the market hasn't settled on Lockett's true number.

Current lines as of Wednesday morning:

That's four different numbers across four books. BetMGM is offering the highest line at 18.5, which is where our edge lives. If you're going to take the under, you want the softest number available, and BetMGM is giving it to you.

What Our Model Sees

Our model projects Lockett for roughly 4.5 receiving yards in this matchup. That's not a typo—the model's mean projection is more than 10 yards below the lowest line being offered (Fanatics at 15.5) and a full 14 yards below the BetMGM number.

The model produces a very strong statistical signal on the under here, driven by three main factors: Lockett's 2025 usage pattern, defensive adjustments for the Broncos secondary, and the road environment penalty we apply to inconsistent receivers.

The 2025 Usage Pattern

Lockett's season has been defined by extreme inconsistency. In 8 games played:

That's a 25% hit rate on 18.5+ yards this season. The books are pricing this closer to a coin flip, but the actual frequency of overs tells a different story. Our model uses exponential weighting to emphasize recent games, and those five single-digit performances carry significant weight in the projection.

Defensive Adjustments Matter

One of the core components of our model is opponent-specific defensive adjustments. We calculate defensive ratings for each team based on how they've performed against different position groups throughout the season, then apply those adjustments to our base projections.

The Broncos pass defense has been middle-of-the-pack overall, but they've been effective at limiting production from secondary and tertiary receivers—exactly where Lockett sits in the Raiders' pecking order. Denver doesn't give up easy yards to complementary receivers, and our defensive adjustment for this matchup lowers Lockett's baseline expectation accordingly.

This isn't about the Broncos being an elite defense—it's about them being disciplined enough to prevent spike games from lower-volume targets. That profile matches up poorly for Lockett, who needs volume or deep shots to hit overs at these lines.

Home/Away Adjustments

Our model also applies home field advantage adjustments based on historical data showing that offensive efficiency drops by 3-6% on the road depending on position. For a receiver like Lockett—who's already seeing inconsistent targets—that road penalty compounds the issue.

It's not a massive swing, but when you're projecting a player at 4.5 yards and the line is 18.5, every adjustment matters. The home/away factor is just another data point pushing the projection lower.

Context Beyond the Model

The Raiders offense has been chaotic all season. Quarterback play has been inconsistent, game plans have shifted week to week, and target distribution has been all over the map. Lockett has been a victim of that inconsistency—some weeks he's involved, most weeks he's an afterthought.

Denver's secondary isn't elite, but they don't have to be. If the Raiders lean on their run game or the Broncos take away the deep ball, Lockett could easily finish with 2-3 catches for under 15 yards. That scenario has played out repeatedly this season, and nothing about this matchup suggests it won't happen again.

The Risk: Spike Games Exist

Lockett's Week 3 performance (37 yards) is the obvious counterpoint. He's capable of boom games when everything clicks. If the Raiders fall behind early and start throwing, or if Lockett breaks a long catch, the over hits easily.

But the question isn't whether Lockett can go over—it's whether the line reflects the likelihood that he does. At 18.5 yards, BetMGM is asking you to believe Lockett will more than double his median output and exceed what he's done in 6 of 8 games this season. The model says that's mispriced.

Why the Line Spread Matters

When books disagree on a line by 3 full yards, it tells you the market is uncertain. Fanatics thinks Lockett's number is 15.5. BetMGM thinks it's 18.5. They can't both be right.

Our model's projection of 4.5 yards suggests they're both too high, but the edge is largest at BetMGM's 18.5 number. That's where you're getting the most cushion relative to what the data says Lockett is likely to produce.

If you wanted to hedge or play multiple books, you could take the under at multiple lines—15.5, 16.5, 17.5, 18.5—and let Lockett's actual output determine how many hit. But if you're picking one, the 18.5 at BetMGM offers the best combination of line value and price.

The Bottom Line

This is a data-backed lean with a clear directional signal. The model sees Lockett's projection well below every available line, the historical hit rate supports the under, and the defensive/environmental adjustments reinforce the read. Add in the fact that books can't agree on the number, and you've got a situation where the market appears unsettled and potentially exploitable.

The model isn't saying Lockett can't have a big game—it's saying the 18.5-yard line doesn't reflect the weight of evidence from his 2025 season. At -115, you're laying minimal juice on a number he's cleared just twice in 8 games, against a defense that limits secondary receivers, in a road environment where the Raiders offense has struggled for consistency.

It's the kind of spot where you lean on the statistical edge, size appropriately for the uncertainty, and let the probabilities work. Not every bet is a hammer, but when the line is soft and the model has a strong directional lean, it's worth taking seriously.

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