Saints @ Rams: Tyler Shough — Under 0.5 Pass TDs (+120)

Update: The line has moved from +145 to +120 since our initial analysis, confirming the market is catching up to what our model identified. The edge remains substantial at the current number.

Tyler Shough's passing touchdown prop presents one of the strongest edges we've seen this week. We're backing Under 0.5 passing TDs at +120 on BetMGM, where our model shows significant value compared to how the market is pricing this line.

Our model projects Shough for roughly 0.01 passing touchdowns—essentially projecting he doesn't throw one—with 99.1% confidence in the under. The current line of +120 translates to a 45.5% implied probability that Shough stays under, which means the market is still giving him nearly a coin flip's chance of throwing a touchdown. Our numbers suggest that's dramatically overestimating his chances.

Why the Model Likes the Under

The Saints offense has been struggling to generate explosive plays in the passing game, particularly with their backup quarterback depth chart in flux. Shough is stepping into a challenging environment against a Rams defense that, while not elite, has shown the ability to limit big plays through the air.

Looking at the consensus across all books, the median line sits at 0.5 with a 42.4% de-vigged market probability on the under. That tells us the broader market is skeptical too, but not nearly as skeptical as our model. When you see this kind of separation—99% model confidence versus 40-42% market consensus—it signals the market may not have fully adjusted for the circumstances around this game.

The Matchup and Context

The Rams aren't a dominant defense, but they don't need to be here. This game sets up as one where the Saints will need to establish rhythm early, and if they fall behind, Shough will be forced into dropback situations where his inexperience becomes more exploitable. The passing TD market isn't just about volume—it's about efficiency in scoring situations, and that's where backup quarterbacks typically struggle most.

Our model accounts for recent performance trends, opponent strength, and game environment factors. For Shough, all of those inputs point toward a low-scoring outing through the air. The model's projected passing volume sits around 22 attempts with limited red zone efficiency, which further supports the touchdown drought scenario.

Edge Analysis

At the current +120, this line still offers substantial value if you believe in the model's assessment. You're getting paid 2.2-to-1 on a bet the model rates as a 99% favorite. That's an edge of roughly 5,350 basis points—still one of the largest we're tracking for Week 9.

The line movement from +145 to +120 validates our early read. When we first analyzed this prop, the market was pricing the under at 40.8% probability. Now it's at 45.5%—the books are adjusting toward the under, but still not nearly as aggressively as our model suggests they should. This is exactly what happens when sharp money identifies value before the broader market catches up.

It's worth noting that 8 books are offering this prop. The fact that BetMGM moved the line suggests they're seeing action on the under, which aligns with our model's assessment. If you missed the +145 window, +120 still presents meaningful opportunity.

What Could Go Wrong?

Props at 0.5 are inherently binary—one touchdown flips the result. If Shough gets into a short-field situation off a turnover or special teams play, or if the Saints scheme up a quick touchdown early, this bet loses. That's the risk with any touchdown prop under 0.5.

But the model isn't saying Shough can't throw a touchdown. It's saying the probability is far lower than the market implies, and that makes the +145 payout attractive relative to the risk. You're not betting on certainty—you're betting on the math being meaningfully off.

The Bottom Line

This is a high-confidence lean from the model. The edge is large, the reasoning is sound, and the market pricing appears soft. If you're looking for a prop with a strong signal rather than a coin flip, Shough under 0.5 pass TDs fits that profile.

As always, game flow matters. If the Saints jump ahead and control the clock with the run game, the under becomes even more likely. If they trail and Shough is forced to throw, he'll get attempts—but that doesn't necessarily translate to touchdowns. The model accounts for both scenarios and still lands decisively on the under.

At +120, it's a bet worth considering if you trust the data. The line movement confirms we were ahead of the market, and while the edge has narrowed slightly, the value remains significant. Not every edge is this clean.