Market Results · NFL 2026

NFL market results

Every NFL prop and game line we track, graded against the books’ own prices. See where overs or unders are running ahead of what the market expected, this season or lately, and whether it is more than chance.

Through Week 3 · 47 games · 1,857 graded lines

Every market at a glance

Each row is one market. The hollow ring is the share of overs the books’ prices implied; the dot is the share that actually went over. The number on the right is the gap in bets: +5 means five more overs than the prices implied.

Prices impliedMore overs than expectedMore unders than expected

Bold gaps are outside the range chance usually produces. With a dozen markets, expect about one to look unusual by chance alone. Select a market for its charts.

Table view: every market this season

Market	Lines	Overs–unders	Over rate	Prices implied	Vs. expected
Game total	15	7–8	46.7%	50.2%	−0.5
Spread (favorites vs. underdogs)	15	6–9	40.0%	50.0%	−1.5
Passing yards	92	48–44	52.2%	50.0%	+2.0
Pass attempts	92	42–50	45.7%	50.1%	−4.1
Completions	92	49–43	53.3%	50.4%	+2.6
Passing TDs	92	47–45	51.1%	48.0%	+2.8
Interceptions	92	47–45	51.1%	47.9%	+2.9
Rushing yards	249	115–134	46.2%	49.8%	−8.9
Rush attempts	160	77–83	48.1%	50.2%	−3.3
Receptions	476	235–241	49.4%	49.2%	+1.0
Receiving yards	482	240–242	49.8%	50.1%	−1.4

Is it more than chance?

Running count of overs minus what the prices implied, in kickoff order.

The shaded band is where the count stays 9 times out of 10 if the books’ prices were exactly right. A line that leaves the band is unusual; one that wanders inside it is noise.

Week by week

The same comparison, one row per week.

How far results landed from the line

By line

Do low lines and high lines behave differently?

Small groups swing a lot; check the count under each label.

Biggest misses either way

The five largest finishes over and under the line in this window. Hover or tap a row for the game.

How this page works

What the prices implied. For each player and stat we use the main line: the line offered by the most books in our pregame snapshot (ties go to the line nearest the median). Each book’s over and under prices are converted to a no-vig probability, then averaged across books.
Results. Official statistics from nflverse. A player with no recorded passing, rushing or receiving usage is left out, as books usually void those bets. Pushes are shown but do not count toward rates.
Chance range. If every line’s no-vig probability were exactly right, the running count would stay inside the shaded band 90% of the time. “About 1 time in N” uses the same normal approximation. The band treats each bet as independent. Props from the same game tend to move together (a high-scoring game pushes many overs at once), so real swings run wider than the band shows.
Units. One unit on every main line at the average price across books, vig included. It shows how far results ran from the prices; it is not a strategy.
Prices captured. These are the last pregame prices we saved, not necessarily closing lines:
Not graded yet. Anytime, first and last touchdown scorers, longest rush and reception, and moneylines. Game lines begin in Week 3, when our weekly archive started saving them.
This page describes the market. It does not use our models and is not a pick list; for those, see Top Picks.