Market Analytics

Are overs or unders hitting?

Market Analytics grades every player prop and game line we track against what the sportsbooks’ own prices implied. See where overs or unders are running ahead of the market, this season or lately, and whether it is more than chance. No models and no picks: just the market and what happened.

Every market at a glance

Each row is one market. The hollow ring is the share of overs the books’ prices implied; the dot is the share that actually went over. The number on the right is the gap in bets: +5 means five more overs than the prices implied.

Prices impliedMore overs than expectedMore unders than expected

Bold gaps are outside the range chance usually produces. With a dozen markets, expect about one to look unusual by chance alone. Select a market for its charts.

Table view: every NFL market this season

Market	Lines	Overs–unders	Over rate	Prices implied	Vs. expected
Game total	46	24–22	52.2%	50.1%	+1.0
Spread (favorites vs. underdogs)	46	17–27	38.6%	49.9%	−5.0
Passing yards	151	80–71	53.0%	50.0%	+4.5
Pass attempts	132	61–71	46.2%	50.0%	−5.0
Completions	132	71–61	53.8%	50.1%	+4.8
Passing TDs	151	75–76	49.7%	47.8%	+2.8
Interceptions	138	68–70	49.3%	48.8%	+0.7
Rushing yards	363	166–197	45.7%	49.9%	−15.0
Rush attempts	220	107–113	48.6%	50.1%	−3.2
Receptions	666	330–336	49.5%	49.2%	+2.3
Receiving yards	674	334–340	49.6%	50.1%	−3.5

Table view: every NHL market this season

Market	Lines	Overs–unders	Over rate	Prices implied	Vs. expected
Game total	117	56–57	49.6%	50.6%	−1.2
Puck line (favorites vs. underdogs)	117	48–69	41.0%	36.8%	+5.0
Moneyline (favorites vs. underdogs)	117	69–48	59.0%	57.9%	+1.2
Shots on goal	1,916	909–1007	47.4%	49.2%	−33.2
Points	2,221	950–1271	42.8%	43.5%	−16.2
Goals	781	223–558	28.6%	30.1%	−11.9
Assists	2,158	679–1479	31.5%	32.6%	−23.6

Table view: every NBA market this season

No graded markets yet.

Is it more than chance?

Running count of overs minus what the prices implied, in kickoff order.

The shaded band is where the count stays 9 times out of 10 if the books’ prices were exactly right. A line that leaves the band is unusual; one that wanders inside it is noise.

Week by week

The same comparison, one row per week.

How far results landed from the line

By line

Do low lines and high lines behave differently?

Small groups swing a lot; check the count under each label.

Biggest misses either way

The five largest finishes over and under the line in this window. Hover or tap a row for the game.

How the NFL page works

What the prices implied. For each player and stat we use the main line: the line offered by the most books in our pregame snapshot (ties go to the line nearest the median). Each book’s over and under prices are converted to a no-vig probability, then averaged across books.
Results. Official statistics from nflverse. A player with no recorded passing, rushing or receiving usage is left out, as books usually void those bets. Pushes are shown but do not count toward rates.
Chance range. If every line’s no-vig probability were exactly right, the running count would stay inside the shaded band 90% of the time. “About 1 time in N” uses the same normal approximation. The band treats each bet as independent. Props from the same game tend to move together (a high-scoring game pushes many overs at once), so real swings run wider than the band shows.
Units. One unit on every main line at the average price across books, vig included. It shows how far results ran from the prices; it is not a strategy.
Prices captured. These are the last pregame prices we saved, not necessarily closing lines:
Not graded yet. Anytime, first and last touchdown scorers, longest rush and reception, and moneylines. Game lines begin in Week 3, when our weekly archive started saving them.
This page describes the market. It does not use our models and is not a pick list; for those, see Top Picks.

How the NHL page works

What the prices implied. For each skater and stat we use the main line: the line offered by the most books in our last pregame snapshot (ties go to the line nearest the median). Each book’s over and under prices are converted to a no-vig probability, then averaged across books.
Results. Official NHL game and skater statistics, including overtime; a shootout counts as one goal for the winner on game lines, as books grade them. A skater with no official appearance is void and left out. Pushes are shown but do not count toward rates.
Chance range. If every line’s no-vig probability were exactly right, the running count would stay inside the shaded band 90% of the time. The band treats each bet as independent. Props from the same game tend to move together (a high-scoring game pushes many overs at once), so real swings run wider than the band shows.
Prices captured. The last snapshot we saved before each game, normally our morning refresh of the game day. These are not closing lines.
Units. One unit on every main line at the average price across books, vig included. It shows how far results ran from the prices; it is not a strategy.
This page describes the market. It does not use our models and is not a pick list; for those, see NHL Top Picks.

How the NBA page works

What the prices implied. For each player and stat we use the main line: the line offered by the most books in our last pregame snapshot (ties go to the line nearest the median). Each book’s over and under prices are converted to a no-vig probability, then averaged across books.
Results. ESPN final box scores, including overtime. A player who did not play, or whose name does not match exactly one player in the box score, is void and left out. Pushes are shown but do not count toward rates.
Chance range. If every line’s no-vig probability were exactly right, the running count would stay inside the shaded band 90% of the time. The band treats each bet as independent. Props from the same game tend to move together (a fast-paced game pushes many overs at once), so real swings run wider than the band shows.
Prices captured. The last snapshot we saved before each game, normally our late-afternoon refresh on game days. These are not closing lines: injury reports and starting lineups often move NBA lines in the last hours before tipoff.
Units. One unit on every main line at the average price across books, vig included. It shows how far results ran from the prices; it is not a strategy.
This page describes the market. It uses no model and is not a pick list; to compare one book’s price with the others before a game, see NBA Market Watch.