NFL pricing checks

Model-dependent pricing checks — investigate assumptions and compare current quotes
Total Violations:
High Severity:
What do these checks show? Ratios of related sportsbook lines can differ from the model's assumed efficiency ranges. Separate betting thresholds are not jointly predicted outcomes, and their ratio is not necessarily a player's expected efficiency. These are screening flags, not mathematically impossible outcomes or risk-free arbitrage. For example, Over 1.5 receptions plus Under 6.5 yards can both lose if a player makes one 10-yard catch. Check both prices, settlement rules and the full set of outcomes before drawing a conclusion.