Fourth & Value · Weekly market review
NFL Week 6 review: the model receipts and the Week 7 watchlist
An audited Week 6 scorecard using frozen pregame data, plus Fourth & Value model-market disagreements to research for Week 7.
Week 6: the market scoreboard
Recorded closes produced 7 overs, 7 unders and 0 pushes. Against our archived market median, 7 games finished over, 7 under and 0 pushed.
The raw totals model direction went 6–8 with 0 pushes and -2.29u across 14 games with archived same-line prices; 0 unpriced directions are excluded from profit/loss. Mean absolute error was 10.31 points for the model versus 10.71 for the archived market median and 10.43 for the recorded close.
The model scorecard
The deduplicated published shortlist contained 133 selections; 127 were conservatively graded and 6 remain unresolved. The graded set went 71–56 with 0 pushes for +17.88u, or 14.1% on units risked. Missing participation or missing statistics remain unresolved rather than becoming automatic unders.
| Market | W–L | Net units | Unresolved |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 30–24 | +8.29u | 4 |
| Passing completions | 7–4 | +3.02u | 0 |
| Passing touchdowns | 10–10 | +2.86u | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 10–7 | +1.83u | 0 |
| Rushing attempts | 8–6 | +1.31u | 1 |
| Receiving yards | 1–0 | +1.05u | 0 |
| Passing attempts | 5–5 | -0.48u | 0 |
Closing-line value report card
Each published pick’s price compared with the closing market: the median no-vig chance across US books at the pick’s exact line, captured in the final minutes before the start. Value at the close is how much more the published price paid than that closing chance justified; beat the close is the share of picks where it was positive; market move is how far the closing chance moved toward our side (positive) or away from it (negative) after the pick. Over many picks, value at the close is the earliest reliable sign of a real edge, long before win–loss results settle down. It is a measure of price, not a guarantee.
| Edition | Picks | Closing prices | Value at the close | Beat the close | Market move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning picks | 1 | 1 | -5.8% | 0% | -2.2 pts |
| Afternoon picks | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| All picks this week | 1 | 1 | -5.8% | 0% | -2.2 pts |
| All picks since 2026-10-19 | 1 | 1 | -5.8% | 0% | -2.2 pts |
Probability quality, not just profit
Across 296 representative non-push outcomes with both probabilities available, the model Brier score was 0.2503 versus 0.2501 for the de-vigged consensus. The game-block 95% interval for model minus market Brier was -0.0084 to +0.0102.
A positive one-week return and a better probability score are different claims. This report keeps both because a profitable slate can still expose probability weaknesses, and vice versa.
Week 7: disagreement is a research question
The new weekly refresh is frozen before the first kickoff. The largest raw totals disagreements are:
- KC @ SEA: model 48.9 vs archived median 42.5 (+6.4). This is a research gap, not a calibrated edge.
- CLE @ TEN: model 41.7 vs archived median 37.5 (+4.2). This is a research gap, not a calibrated edge.
- GB @ DET: model 49.7 vs archived median 53.5 (-3.8). This is a research gap, not a calibrated edge.
- IND @ MIN: model 45.0 vs archived median 41.5 (+3.5). This is a research gap, not a calibrated edge.
- CIN @ BAL: model 47.6 vs archived median 51.0 (-3.4). This is a research gap, not a calibrated edge.
Player props to recheck
- Kenneth Walker Rushing yards under 68.5 at bovada (+230); saved model mean 80.67, model probability 50.0%, estimated EV +65.0%. Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated
- Cole Kmet Receptions over 1.5 at fanduel (+178); saved model mean 2.33, model probability 54.8%, estimated EV +52.2%. Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving yards under 70.5 at bovada (+190); saved model mean 92.15, model probability 49.9%, estimated EV +44.6%. Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated
- Patrick Mahomes Passing yards under 191.5 at bovada (+185); saved model mean 218.20, model probability 50.0%, estimated EV +42.5%. Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated
- Sam Darnold Passing yards under 193.5 at bovada (+185); saved model mean 216.67, model probability 50.0%, estimated EV +42.5%. Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated
These are saved prices from the weekly archive. Recheck the current line, price, injury status and role before treating any one of them as actionable. Model status labels are shown rather than hidden.
Audit notes
The scorecard uses hash-verified immutable weekly pregame archives.
The completed-week scorecard uses only the frozen pregame archive for Week 6 and official results/player statistics available after the games. The preview uses a separate frozen Week 7 archive. The workflow refuses to create a new archive after a game has started, refuses to overwrite an existing archive whose hashes do not match, and refuses to publish a review while any official Week 6 game remains unplayed.
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