Independent analysis · Always free
Sports, markets and everything in between. The numbers start the conversation. The context makes it useful.
The lead · NFL · Analysis
Books cluster at 54.5 for Arizona at Dallas, while Fourth & Value's experimental estimate sits near 45. The gap is a prompt for caution, not a proven betting edge.
Read the full story →Model inputs, current reporting and the case against the pick, plus signed opinion from our contributors. Dated features, not live betting recommendations.
NFL · Analysis
Books listed Pittsburgh–New Orleans at 43 to 43.5 at 7:12 AM EDT Sunday, down a point from Saturday. An experimental, dated and unvalidated scoring estimate is higher, so this is a watchlist game.
MLB · Analysis
Game 2 sits at 6.5 runs across eleven books. Our experimental model projects more scoring, but bullpen context and a thin evidence base argue for caution.
MLB · Analysis
Milwaukee had the best record in baseball; Tampa Bay won the AL East. Here is what each team brings, how Game 1 is priced, and the two starter props on our card.
32 upcoming games checked · 23 with different totals across books.
| Game | What changed | Best over | Best under |
|---|---|---|---|
| NHL Columbus Blue Jackets @ Carolina Hurricanes | Total 6.5 → 6 | O 6 (-110) | U 6.5 (-134) |
| NHL Winnipeg Jets @ Tampa Bay Lightning | Total 5.5 → 6 | O 5.5 (-137) | U 6.5 (-140) |
| NHL Boston Bruins @ St Louis Blues | Total 5.5 → 6 | O 5.5 (-124) | U 6 (-115) |
| NBA Los Angeles Lakers @ Los Angeles Clippers | Total 228.5 → 224.5 | O 224.5 (-107) | U 224.5 (-106) |
| NFL Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers | Total 47.5 → 47 | O 47 (-110) | U 47.5 (-110) |
These games have started. The next scheduled price check refreshes this table.
How saved picks and forecasts graded, sport by sport, with strengths, misses and coverage limits.
Learn the basics: Guides and calculators · Videos · YouTube · Boards: NFL props · MLB · NBA · NHL