Daily market briefing · Fourth & Value

The market rundown: October 01, 2026

28 upcoming games checked · 5 with a changed matched-book median · 25 with different totals across books.

Prices checked Oct 01 at 07:09 AM ET

Open today's picks and current quote checks →. This dated edition preserves its market rundown; current picks are shown only on the latest briefing.

The price rundown

Each range is across observed book totals for the same game. “Change” compares medians from matched books against the previous stored snapshot, never a claimed opener.
Game / start ETMarket medianBook rangeChange
NHL · Buffalo Sabres @ Columbus Blue Jackets
Thu 07:10 PM ET
6.06.0–6.5
11 books
+0 (9 matched books)
NHL · Philadelphia Flyers @ New Jersey Devils
Thu 07:10 PM ET
5.55.5–6.0
11 books
+0 (7 matched books)
NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Rangers
Thu 07:10 PM ET
6.05.5–6.0
11 books
+0 (9 matched books)
NHL · Minnesota Wild @ Nashville Predators
Thu 08:10 PM ET
6.06.0–6.5
11 books
+0 (8 matched books)
MLB · Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
Thu 08:11 PM ET
7.57.5–7.5
10 books
First comparable snapshot
NFL · Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Thu 08:15 PM ET
38.538.0–38.5
11 books
+0 (11 matched books)
NHL · Seattle Kraken @ Calgary Flames
Thu 09:10 PM ET
6.05.5–6.0
11 books
+0 (7 matched books)
NHL · Chicago Blackhawks @ Utah Mammoth
Thu 09:10 PM ET
6.05.5–6.5
10 books
+0.5 (9 matched books)
NHL · Edmonton Oilers @ Vancouver Canucks
Thu 10:10 PM ET
6.56.5–6.5
11 books
+0 (9 matched books)
NHL · Florida Panthers @ San Jose Sharks
Thu 10:10 PM ET
6.56.5–6.5
11 books
+0 (9 matched books)
NHL · New York Rangers @ Detroit Red Wings
Fri 06:40 PM ET
6.55.5–6.5
5 books
First comparable snapshot
NHL · Boston Bruins @ Winnipeg Jets
Fri 08:10 PM ET
5.55.5–6.0
5 books
First comparable snapshot
NHL · St Louis Blues @ Dallas Stars
Fri 09:10 PM ET
5.55.5–6.0
5 books
First comparable snapshot
NFL · Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders
Sun 09:30 AM ET
47.547.5–48.0
11 books
+0 (11 matched books)
NFL · Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants
Sun 01:00 PM ET
44.543.5–44.5
11 books
+0 (11 matched books)
NFL · Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
Sun 01:00 PM ET
42.542.5–43.0
11 books
-1 (11 matched books)
NFL · New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Sun 01:00 PM ET
48.548.0–49.0
11 books
+0 (11 matched books)
NFL · New York Jets @ Chicago Bears
Sun 01:00 PM ET
43.042.5–43.5
11 books
+0 (11 matched books)
NFL · Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals
Sun 01:00 PM ET
51.551.0–51.5
11 books
+0 (11 matched books)
NFL · Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans
Sun 01:00 PM ET
48.047.5–48.5
11 books
+0 (11 matched books)
NFL · Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun 01:00 PM ET
38.538.5–39.0
11 books
-1 (11 matched books)
NFL · Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sun 01:00 PM ET
43.543.5–44.0
11 books
+0.5 (11 matched books)
NFL · Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings
Sun 04:05 PM ET
38.538.5–39.5
11 books
+0 (11 matched books)
NFL · Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers
Sun 04:25 PM ET
48.547.5–48.5
11 books
+0.5 (11 matched books)
NFL · Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sun 04:25 PM ET
47.547.5–48.0
11 books
+0 (11 matched books)
NFL · Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks
Sun 04:25 PM ET
42.542.5–43.5
11 books
+0 (11 matched books)
NFL · Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
Sun 08:20 PM ET
51.050.5–51.5
11 books
+0 (11 matched books)
NFL · Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Mon 08:15 PM ET
47.547.5–48.0
11 books
+0 (11 matched books)

Price checks follow the morning sports refresh, with later scheduled checks at 11:07 a.m., 4:07 p.m. and 9:07 p.m. Eastern. Recovery and hourly maintenance can refresh prices when due; check the quoted timestamps. Lowest/highest totals are among observed books and are not a ranking of expected value.

Behind the numbers

NFL · Analysis · 2026-09-30

Steelers–Browns: Watson’s accuracy tests a total of 38.5

Cleveland’s late scoring offers an over case, but inconsistent passing keeps it conditional. A dated scoring estimate and a half-point book gap make this a watchlist, not a pick.

NFL · Analysis · 2026-09-29

Cardinals–Giants: Winston stays in place as Burns injury complicates the total

New York’s quarterback trade does not change Sunday’s announced starter. With Brian Burns also lost, a 43.5–44.5 total offers competing scoring risks rather than a clear under.

NFL · Analysis · 2026-09-29

Colts–Commanders: Daniels’ practice return puts a 47-point total on watch

Washington expects Jayden Daniels to practice in London, not necessarily play. A stable total and a dated scoring estimate favor patience until his availability and supporting roles become clearer.

Reporting to follow

Coverage and sources

Prices: The Odds API. The price rundown compares full-game totals; quotes more than six hours old and started games are excluded at publication. Today's picks preserve a dated snapshot selected from the separate NFL, MLB and NHL model boards after freshness and review checks. Newsgathering: dated ESPN league RSS headlines linked to their original articles. Market quotes and publisher timestamps are retained in the downloadable edition snapshot; model forecasts and offers remain in each sport's pipeline archives.

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