Daily market briefing · Fourth & Value

The market rundown: October 04, 2026

25 upcoming games checked · 19 with different totals across books.

Prices checked Oct 04 at 07:09 AM ET

Open today's picks and current quote checks →. This dated edition preserves its market rundown; current picks are shown only on the latest briefing.

Price movement after our picks

For each pick on a recent card, we keep the latest market snapshot taken after publication and before the start. A pick “beat the move” when other books’ fair probability at the same line ended above the published price’s break-even rate. A changed line is counted separately. Refreshes run a few times a day, so this is the latest pregame snapshot we hold, not necessarily the closing line, and one snapshot says little about skill.

Sport	Picks observed	Beat the move (same line)	Average move	Line moved our way
MLB	1 of 1	0 of 1	-0.8 pp	0 of 0

The price rundown

Book prices pulled Oct 4, 7:07 AM–7:09 AM ET

Full-game totals across observed books. Model total is the experimental NHL model’s expected full-game goals, including one overtime/shootout goal when regulation ends tied; other sports show a dash. Lowest line shows the book with the best Over price at that total; highest line shows the book with the best Under price. With four or more books, the range uses totals at least two books share; a total posted by one book alone is listed beneath as “Only”.
Game / start ET	Market median	Model total	Lowest line	Highest line
NFL · Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders Sun 09:30 AM ET · 11 books	46.5	—	46.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107	46.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107
NFL · Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	44.5	—	44.0 LowVig.ag O -114 / U -101	44.5 MyBookie.ag O -110 / U -110
NFL · Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	42.5	—	42.5 LowVig.ag O -105 / U -109 Only Bovada: 42.0 (O -110 / U -110)	42.5 BetMGM O -110 / U -108
NFL · New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	50.0	—	49.5 BetRivers O -113 / U -108	50.5 BetMGM O -108 / U -110
NFL · New York Jets @ Chicago Bears Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	43.0	—	43.0 MyBookie.ag O -110 / U -110	43.5 FanDuel O -114 / U -106
NFL · Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	51.5	—	51.5 DraftKings O -102 / U -118	52.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107
NFL · Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	48.5	—	48.5 Caesars O -106 / U -114 Only FanDuel: 47.5 (O -108 / U -112) Only BetRivers: 48.0 (O -113 / U -108)	48.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107 Only Bovada: 49.0 (O -110 / U -110)
NFL · Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	39.0	—	38.5 BetRivers O -113 / U -108	39.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107
NFL · Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	42.5	—	42.5 BetUS O -110 / U -110	43.0 MyBookie.ag O -110 / U -110
NHL · Winnipeg Jets @ Detroit Red Wings Sun 01:10 PM ET · 11 books	5.5	5.92 Reg. 2.80–2.95 (away–home)	5.5 BetMGM O -120 / U +100	5.5 LowVig.ag O -125 / U +109 Only Bovada: 6.0 (O +100 / U -120)
MLB · San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers Sun 04:00 PM ET · 11 books	7.0	—	7.0 Caesars O -108 / U -109	7.0 LowVig.ag O -113 / U -102 Only FanDuel: 7.5 (O +116 / U -142)
NFL · Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings Sun 04:05 PM ET · 11 books	38.5	—	38.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107	38.5 Caesars O -113 / U -107
NFL · Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers Sun 04:25 PM ET · 11 books	48.0	—	47.5 BetRivers O -113 / U -108	48.5 Fanatics O -110 / U -110
NFL · Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Sun 04:25 PM ET · 11 books	48.0	—	47.5 BetRivers O -112 / U -109	48.0 LowVig.ag O -105 / U -109
NFL · Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks Sun 04:25 PM ET · 11 books	42.5	—	42.5 LowVig.ag O -109 / U -105	43.0 BetRivers O -112 / U -109 Only FanDuel: 43.5 (O -102 / U -120)
NHL · Utah Mammoth @ New York Rangers Sun 06:10 PM ET · 11 books	5.5	5.98 Reg. 2.89–2.92 (away–home)	5.5 LowVig.ag O -118 / U +102	5.5 LowVig.ag O -118 / U +102
MLB · Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers Sun 08:00 PM ET · 11 books	7.0	—	7.0 MyBookie.ag O -106 / U -116	7.0 BetMGM O -115 / U -105 Only FanDuel: 7.5 (O +114 / U -140)
NHL · Florida Panthers @ Anaheim Ducks Sun 08:10 PM ET · 11 books	6.5	6.30 Reg. 2.98–3.17 (away–home)	6.5 LowVig.ag O -115 / U -101	6.5 FanDuel O -122 / U +100
NHL · Calgary Flames @ Seattle Kraken Sun 08:10 PM ET · 10 books	5.5	6.08 Reg. 2.74–3.17 (away–home)	5.5 LowVig.ag O -120 / U +104	5.5 DraftKings O -125 / U +105
NFL · Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers Sun 08:20 PM ET · 11 books	51.0	—	51.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107 Only FanDuel: 50.5 (O -118 / U -104)	51.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107 Only DraftKings: 51.5 (O -102 / U -118)
NHL · Vegas Golden Knights @ Vancouver Canucks Sun 09:10 PM ET · 11 books	6.0	6.72 Reg. 3.57–3.00 (away–home)	6.0 LowVig.ag O -115 / U -101	6.5 BetRivers O -107 / U -117
MLB · Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians Mon 05:10 PM ET · 11 books	6.5	—	6.5 BetMGM O -115 / U -105	6.5 Bovada O -125 / U +105
MLB · New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays Mon 08:00 PM ET · 11 books	6.5	—	6.5 FanDuel O -110 / U -110	6.5 LowVig.ag O -113 / U -102
NFL · Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Mon 08:15 PM ET · 11 books	48.0	—	47.5 BetRivers O -109 / U -112	48.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107
NFL · Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Thu 08:15 PM ET · 8 books	47.0	—	47.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107 Only FanDuel: 46.5 (O -115 / U -105)	47.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107 Only DraftKings: 47.5 (O -110 / U -110)

Price checks follow the morning sports refresh, with later scheduled checks at 11:07 a.m., 4:07 p.m. and 9:07 p.m. Eastern. Recovery and hourly maintenance can refresh prices when due; check the quoted timestamps. Lowest/highest totals are among observed books and are not a ranking of expected value.

Behind the numbers

NFL · Analysis · 2026-10-03

Colts–Commanders: Taylor’s role tests a steady 47.5-point total

The London total is unchanged across 11 books. Taylor’s early-season struggles frame the scoring question, but our dated experimental estimate cannot establish a betting advantage.

NFL · Analysis · 2026-10-01

Cardinals–Giants: Beckham’s exit is a smaller scoring question than the headline

Odell Beckham Jr.’s release removes little established production. With Cardinals–Giants totals ranging from 43.5 to 44.5, the available evidence favors price discipline over a roster-driven bet.

Reporting to follow

No current feed items could be verified.

Coverage and sources

Prices: The Odds API. The price rundown compares full-game totals; quotes more than six hours old and started games are excluded at publication. Today's picks preserve a dated snapshot selected from the separate NFL, MLB and NHL model boards after freshness and review checks. Newsgathering: dated ESPN league RSS headlines linked to their original articles. Market quotes and publisher timestamps are retained in the downloadable edition snapshot; model forecasts and offers remain in each sport's pipeline archives.

NFL: 16 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
MLB: 4 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
NBA: 0 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
NHL: 5 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books

Download this edition's market data · Latest briefing · Back to the homepage