Daily market briefing · Fourth & Value
The market rundown: October 05, 2026
26 upcoming games checked · 19 with different totals across books.
Open today's picks and current quote checks →. This dated edition preserves its market rundown; current picks are shown only on the latest briefing.
Price movement after our picks
For each pick on a recent card, we keep the latest market snapshot taken after publication and before the start. A pick “beat the move” when other books’ fair probability at the same line ended above the published price’s break-even rate. A changed line is counted separately. Refreshes run a few times a day, so this is the latest pregame snapshot we hold, not necessarily the closing line, and one snapshot says little about skill.
| Sport | Picks observed | Beat the move (same line) | Average move | Line moved our way |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | -0.8 pp | 0 of 0 |
The price rundown
| Game / start ET | Market median | Model total | Lowest line | Highest line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB · Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | 6.5 | 6.5 MyBookie.ag | 6.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NHL · Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning | 5.5 | 6.01 | 5.5 DraftKings | 6.0 BetMGM |
| NHL · Ottawa Senators @ Boston Bruins | 5.5 | 5.99 | 5.5 LowVig.ag | 6.0 BetMGM |
| NHL · Winnipeg Jets @ Pittsburgh Penguins | 6.5 | 6.48 | 6.5 DraftKings | 6.5 BetRivers |
| MLB · New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6.5 | 6.5 MyBookie.ag | 6.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NHL · San Jose Sharks @ Dallas Stars | 6.5 | 6.18 | 6.5 BetRivers | 6.5 LowVig.ag |
| NFL · Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints | 48.0 | 47.5 FanDuel | 48.0 LowVig.ag | |
| MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves | 6.5 | 6.5 LowVig.ag | 6.5 BetRivers | |
| NHL · Carolina Hurricanes @ Montréal Canadiens | 6.5 | 6.18 | 6.5 Fanatics | 6.5 Fanatics |
| NHL · St Louis Blues @ Chicago Blackhawks | 5.5 | 5.5 Fanatics | 5.5 Fanatics | |
| MLB · Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | 7.0 | 7.0 DraftKings | 7.0 Bovada | |
| NHL · Florida Panthers @ Los Angeles Kings | 5.5 | 5.5 DraftKings | 5.5 Fanatics | |
| NFL · Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys | 47.5 | 47.5 FanDuel | 47.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars | 43.5 | 43.0 MyBookie.ag | 43.5 BetRivers | |
| NFL · Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers | 44.5 | 44.0 BetRivers | 44.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins | 42.0 | 42.0 Caesars | 42.5 BetRivers | |
| NFL · Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets | 40.0 | 40.0 LowVig.ag | 40.5 BetRivers | |
| NFL · Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans | 39.5 | 39.5 FanDuel | 39.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 44.0 | 43.5 BetRivers | 44.5 MyBookie.ag | |
| NFL · Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots | 44.5 | 44.5 LowVig.ag | 45.0 Caesars | |
| NFL · Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints | 42.0 | 42.0 LowVig.ag | 42.5 FanDuel | |
| NFL · New York Giants @ Washington Commanders | 43.75 | 43.5 MyBookie.ag | 44.0 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers | 42.5 | 42.0 LowVig.ag | 42.5 BetRivers | |
| NFL · Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals | 54.0 | 54.0 Caesars | 54.0 BetMGM | |
| NFL · San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks | 47.25 | 46.5 MyBookie.ag | 47.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons | 47.0 | 46.5 MyBookie.ag | 47.5 BetRivers |
Behind the numbers
MLB · Analysis · 2026-10-04
Padres–Brewers Game 2: Michael King’s outs hinge on the postseason leash
Michael King’s outs forecast sits above the 14.5 market threshold, but Game 2 urgency cuts both ways. Bullpen workload and the final batting order matter more than the series narrative alone.
Reporting to follow
- No current feed items could be verified.
Coverage and sources
Prices: The Odds API. The price rundown compares full-game totals; quotes more than six hours old and started games are excluded at publication. Today's picks preserve a dated snapshot selected from the separate NFL, MLB and NHL model boards after freshness and review checks. Newsgathering: dated ESPN league RSS headlines linked to their original articles. Market quotes and publisher timestamps are retained in the downloadable edition snapshot; model forecasts and offers remain in each sport's pipeline archives.
- NFL: 15 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
- MLB: 4 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
- NBA: 0 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
- NHL: 7 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
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