Daily market briefing · Fourth & Value
The market rundown: October 11, 2026
20 upcoming games checked · 14 with different totals across books.
Open today's picks and current quote checks →. This dated edition preserves its market rundown; current picks are shown only on the latest briefing.
Price movement after our picks
For each pick on a recent card, we keep the latest market snapshot taken after publication and before the start. A pick “beat the move” when other books’ fair probability at the same line ended above the published price’s break-even rate. A changed line is counted separately. Refreshes run a few times a day, so this is the latest pregame snapshot we hold, not necessarily the closing line, and one snapshot says little about skill.
| Sport | Picks observed | Beat the move (same line) | Average move | Line moved our way |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 15 of 15 | 0 of 15 | -1.9 pp | 0 of 1 |
| NHL | 12 of 12 | 6 of 12 | +0.3 pp | 0 of 0 |
The price rundown
| Game / start ET | Market median | Model total | Lowest line | Highest line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL · Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars | 41.5 | 41.5 Bovada | 41.5 FanDuel | |
| NFL · Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers | 47.0 | 46.5 FanDuel | 47.5 BetUS | |
| NFL · Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins | 44.0 | 43.5 Caesars | 44.0 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets | 39.5 | 39.5 BetUS | 39.5 FanDuel | |
| NFL · Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans | 38.0 | 37.5 DraftKings | 38.0 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 43.5 | 43.5 Bovada | 43.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots | 45.0 | 45.0 MyBookie.ag | 45.5 Fanatics | |
| NFL · Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints | 41.5 | 41.5 BetMGM | 42.0 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · New York Giants @ Washington Commanders | 41.5 | 41.5 LowVig.ag | 41.5 FanDuel | |
| NFL · Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers | 42.0 | 42.0 Caesars | 42.0 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals | 54.5 | 54.5 LowVig.ag | 54.5 DraftKings | |
| NFL · San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks | 46.5 | 46.5 FanDuel | 46.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NHL · Seattle Kraken @ Washington Capitals | 6.5 | 6.22 | 6.5 FanDuel | 6.5 LowVig.ag |
| NHL · Vancouver Canucks @ New York Rangers | 6.0 | 6.46 | 5.5 DraftKings | 6.5 BetRivers |
| NHL · Carolina Hurricanes @ Philadelphia Flyers | 5.5 | 6.04 | 5.5 LowVig.ag | 6.0 BetMGM |
| MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers | 6.0 | 6.0 Bovada | 6.0 Caesars | |
| NFL · Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons | 43.5 | 43.5 MyBookie.ag | 43.5 LowVig.ag | |
| MLB · Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | 7.0 | 6.5 BetMGM | 7.0 DraftKings | |
| NFL · Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams | 54.5 | 54.0 BetRivers | 54.5 DraftKings | |
| NFL · Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos | 42.25 | 42.0 LowVig.ag | 42.5 DraftKings |
Behind the numbers
NFL · Analysis · 2026-10-10
Bears–Packers: A uniform 45.5 total masks different costs of uncertainty
Chicago's quarterback status remains unresolved, but the Bears–Packers total is unchanged across ten books. The meaningful difference in our snapshot is the price, not the number.
NFL · Analysis · 2026-10-09
Bears–Packers: Chicago’s scoring contribution tests a steady 45.5 total
The Bears–Packers total is unchanged at 45.5. A dated scoring estimate puts more of the burden on Chicago, but unresolved quarterback availability limits what that comparison can tell us.
NFL · Analysis · 2026-10-09
Eagles–Jaguars: Jurgens trade tests Philadelphia’s scoring floor
Philadelphia’s offensive-line reshuffle raises a scoring question, but the total has stayed steady. A dated scoring estimate offers context—not a validated reason to oppose the market.
Reporting to follow
- NFL How to bet Ravens-Falcons on SNF: Analysis, tips and top prop plays
- MLB MLB championship round odds: Dodgers and Rays begin series as favorites
- MLB MLB playoffs 2026: ALCS, NLCS expert predictions
- MLB MLB playoffs 2026: Ranking the final four teams
- NFL Sources: Eagles mull Lane Johnson roster status amid O-line changes
- NFL HOFer Ronnie Lott offers words of encouragement to Aaron Glenn as losses pile up
- NBA Detroit Pistons vs. Washington Wizards: Game Highlights
- NBA Kings lose Maxime Raynaud to apparent serious knee injury
- NBA Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors: Game Highlights
Coverage and sources
Prices: The Odds API. The price rundown compares full-game totals; quotes more than six hours old and started games are excluded at publication. Today's picks preserve a dated snapshot selected from the separate NFL, MLB and NHL model boards after freshness and review checks. Newsgathering: dated ESPN league RSS headlines linked to their original articles. Market quotes and publisher timestamps are retained in the downloadable edition snapshot; model forecasts and offers remain in each sport's pipeline archives.
- NFL: 15 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
- MLB: 2 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
- NBA: 0 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
- NHL: 3 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
Download this edition's market data · Latest briefing · Back to the homepage