Daily market briefing · Fourth & Value

The market rundown: October 26, 2026

27 upcoming games checked · 22 with different totals across books.

Prices checked Oct 26 at 07:12 AM ET

Open today's picks and current quote checks →. This dated edition preserves its market rundown; current picks are shown only on the latest briefing.

Price movement after our picks

For each pick on a recent card, we keep the latest market snapshot taken after publication and before the start. A pick “beat the move” when other books’ fair probability at the same line ended above the published price’s break-even rate. A changed line is counted separately. Refreshes run a few times a day, so this is the latest pregame snapshot we hold, not necessarily the closing line, and one snapshot says little about skill.

Sport	Picks observed	Beat the move (same line)	Average move	Line moved our way
MLB	21 of 21	1 of 19	-2.1 pp	0 of 2
NHL	56 of 56	39 of 53	+0.9 pp	0 of 0

The price rundown

Book prices pulled Oct 26, 7:10 AM–7:12 AM ET

Full-game totals across observed books. Model total is the experimental NHL model’s expected full-game goals, including one overtime/shootout goal when regulation ends tied; other sports show a dash. Lowest line shows the book with the best Over price at that total; highest line shows the book with the best Under price. With four or more books, the range uses totals at least two books share; a total posted by one book alone is listed beneath as “Only”.
Game / start ET	Market median	Model total	Lowest line	Highest line
NBA · Washington Wizards @ Charlotte Hornets Mon 07:10 PM ET · 11 books	228.5	—	228.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107 Only Caesars: 228.0 (O -110 / U -110)	228.5 Fanatics O -115 / U -105 Only FanDuel: 229.5 (O -104 / U -118)
NBA · Minnesota Timberwolves @ Cleveland Cavaliers Mon 07:10 PM ET · 11 books	232.5	—	232.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107	233.5 BetRivers O -109 / U -112
NHL · Los Angeles Kings @ New York Rangers Mon 07:10 PM ET · 11 books	5.5	5.92 Reg. 2.63–3.12 (away–home)	5.5 LowVig.ag O -120 / U +104	6.0 BetMGM O -105 / U -115
NBA · Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics Mon 07:40 PM ET · 11 books	233.0	—	233.0 LowVig.ag O +100 / U -115 Only DraftKings: 232.5 (O -108 / U -112)	233.5 FanDuel O -110 / U -110
NBA · Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat Mon 07:40 PM ET · 11 books	238.0	—	236.5 FanDuel O -112 / U -108	238.5 Fanatics O -110 / U -110
MLB · Milwaukee Brewers @ Tampa Bay Rays Mon 08:10 PM ET · 11 books	7.0	—	7.0 Caesars O -108 / U -110 Only FanDuel: 6.5 (O -152 / U +124)	7.0 BetMGM O -120 / U +100
NBA · Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks Mon 08:10 PM ET · 11 books	240.5	—	239.5 BetRivers O -105 / U -117	240.5 Caesars O -115 / U -105
NBA · Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder Mon 08:10 PM ET · 11 books	219.0	—	219.0 MyBookie.ag O -110 / U -110 Only Bovada: 218.5 (O -110 / U -110)	219.5 FanDuel O -110 / U -110
NFL · Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles Mon 08:15 PM ET · 11 books	44.0	—	43.5 Fanatics O -110 / U -110	44.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107 Only FanDuel: 44.5 (O -102 / U -120)
NBA · Atlanta Hawks @ Houston Rockets Mon 08:40 PM ET · 11 books	229.5	—	229.0 LowVig.ag O -113 / U -102	230.0 Fanatics O -110 / U -110 Only FanDuel: 230.5 (O -105 / U -115)
NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs @ Calgary Flames Mon 08:40 PM ET · 10 books	6.5	6.43 Reg. 3.27–2.99 (away–home)	6.5 LowVig.ag O -115 / U -101	6.5 Fanatics O -120 / U +100
NBA · Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz Mon 09:10 PM ET · 11 books	238.0	—	237.5 DraftKings O -108 / U -112	238.5 FanDuel O -115 / U -105
NHL · Detroit Red Wings @ Edmonton Oilers Mon 09:40 PM ET · 10 books	6.5	6.45 Reg. 2.89–3.40 (away–home)	6.5 LowVig.ag O -118 / U +102	6.5 BetMGM O -125 / U +105
NBA · Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets Mon 10:10 PM ET · 11 books	234.5	—	234.5 FanDuel O -105 / U -115 Only BetRivers: 232.5 (O -136 / U +110) Only MyBookie.ag: 233.5 (O -110 / U -110)	234.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107
NFL · Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers Thu 08:15 PM ET · 11 books	48.0	—	47.5 BetMGM O -110 / U -108	48.0 MyBookie.ag O -110 / U -110
NFL · Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys Sun 01:00 PM ET · 9 books	53.5	—	53.5 FanDuel O -106 / U -114 Only BetRivers: 53.0 (O -113 / U -108)	54.0 LowVig.ag O -113 / U -102
NFL · Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sun 01:00 PM ET · 10 books	45.0	—	45.0 LowVig.ag O -102 / U -113 Only DraftKings: 44.5 (O -115 / U -105)	45.0 BetRivers O -113 / U -108 Only FanDuel: 45.5 (O -104 / U -118)
NFL · Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Sun 01:00 PM ET · 9 books	53.5	—	53.0 LowVig.ag O -113 / U -102	53.5 FanDuel O -115 / U -105
NFL · Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals Sun 01:00 PM ET · 10 books	47.0	—	46.5 BetRivers O -109 / U -112	47.0 LowVig.ag O -113 / U -102
NFL · Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers Sun 01:00 PM ET · 10 books	38.5	—	38.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107	38.5 Caesars O -115 / U -105
NFL · Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions Sun 01:00 PM ET · 9 books	46.5	—	46.0 Bovada O -110 / U -110	46.5 DraftKings O -110 / U -110
NFL · Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars Sun 01:00 PM ET · 10 books	46.5	—	46.5 MyBookie.ag O -110 / U -110	47.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107
NFL · Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets Sun 01:00 PM ET · 10 books	44.5	—	44.5 Caesars O -106 / U -114	45.0 LowVig.ag O -110 / U -104
NFL · Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams Sun 04:05 PM ET · 7 books	43.5	—	43.5 BetMGM O -108 / U -110	43.5 FanDuel O -114 / U -106
NFL · Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Sun 04:25 PM ET · 6 books	41.5	—	41.5 FanDuel O -114 / U -106 Only BetRivers: 41.0 (O -109 / U -112)	41.5 DraftKings O -115 / U -105 Only MyBookie.ag: 42.0 (O -110 / U -110) Only BetMGM: 42.5 (O -108 / U -110)
NFL · New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Sun 04:25 PM ET · 10 books	44.5	—	44.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107	44.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107
NFL · Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders Sun 08:20 PM ET · 9 books	40.5	—	40.5 FanDuel O -105 / U -115	41.0 LowVig.ag O -102 / U -113

Price checks follow the morning sports refresh, with later scheduled checks at 11:07 a.m., 4:07 p.m. and 9:07 p.m. Eastern. Recovery and hourly maintenance can refresh prices when due; check the quoted timestamps. Lowest/highest totals are among observed books and are not a ranking of expected value.

Reporting to follow

NBA NBA breakout players: 30 ready for the next step (yes, even Wemby and Luka)
ESPN · Oct 26, 07:03 AM ET
MLB Rays looking to Junior Caminero's bat, leadership in World Series
ESPN · Oct 26, 06:35 AM ET
MLB What we've learned about Rays, Brewers early in World Series
ESPN · Oct 26, 06:35 AM ET
NHL NHL Tonight: What to watch in Kings-Rangers, Leafs-Flames, Wings-Oilers
ESPN · Oct 26, 06:08 AM ET
NFL 2026 NFL playoff picture: AFC, NFC seed projections, chances to make postseason
ESPN · Oct 26, 06:06 AM ET
NFL 2027 NFL draft order projections for Round 1, chances for top pick, more
ESPN · Oct 26, 06:00 AM ET
NFL Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 150 receiving yards, TD in Seahawks' win vs. Chiefs
ESPN · Oct 26, 03:02 AM ET
MLB RHP Quinn Priester's uncle pilots Brewers' flight to Florida
ESPN · Oct 25, 09:14 PM ET

Coverage and sources

Prices: The Odds API. The price rundown compares full-game totals; quotes more than six hours old and started games are excluded at publication. Today's picks preserve a dated snapshot selected from the separate NFL, MLB and NHL model boards after freshness and review checks. Newsgathering: dated ESPN league RSS headlines linked to their original articles. Market quotes and publisher timestamps are retained in the downloadable edition snapshot; model forecasts and offers remain in each sport's pipeline archives.

NFL: 14 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
MLB: 1 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
NBA: 9 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
NHL: 3 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books

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