Daily market briefing · Fourth & Value

The market rundown: November 06, 2026

27 upcoming games checked · 20 with different totals across books.

Prices checked Nov 06 at 07:15 AM ET

Open today's picks and current quote checks →. This dated edition preserves its market rundown; current picks are shown only on the latest briefing.

Price movement after our picks

For each pick on a recent card, we keep the latest market snapshot taken after publication and before the start. A pick “beat the move” when other books’ fair probability at the same line ended above the published price’s break-even rate. A changed line is counted separately. Refreshes run a few times a day, so this is the latest pregame snapshot we hold, not necessarily the closing line, and one snapshot says little about skill.

Sport	Picks observed	Beat the move (same line)	Average move	Line moved our way
MLB	11 of 11	1 of 9	-2.6 pp	0 of 3
NHL	94 of 94	74 of 90	+1.4 pp	1 of 1

The price rundown

Book prices pulled Nov 6, 7:12 AM–7:14 AM ET

Full-game totals across observed books. Model total is the experimental NHL model’s expected full-game goals, including one overtime/shootout goal when regulation ends tied; other sports show a dash. Lowest line shows the book with the best Over price at that total; highest line shows the book with the best Under price. With four or more books, the range uses totals at least two books share; a total posted by one book alone is listed beneath as “Only”.
Game / start ET	Market median	Model total	Lowest line	Highest line
NBA · Washington Wizards @ Atlanta Hawks Fri 07:10 PM ET · 10 books	228.5	—	228.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107	228.5 MyBookie.ag O -110 / U -110 Only BetOnline.ag: 229.0 (O -105 / U -115) Only BetMGM: 229.5 (O -102 / U -118)
NBA · Boston Celtics @ Charlotte Hornets Fri 07:10 PM ET · 11 books	209.5	—	209.5 BetRivers O -106 / U -117	209.5 FanDuel O -114 / U -106
NHL · Columbus Blue Jackets @ Buffalo Sabres Fri 07:10 PM ET · 11 books	6.5	5.98 Reg. 2.73–3.08 (away–home)	6.5 Fanatics O +100 / U -120 Only BetMGM: 6.0 (O -130 / U +105)	6.5 LowVig.ag O -103 / U -113
NBA · Philadelphia 76ers @ Cleveland Cavaliers Fri 07:40 PM ET · 11 books	229.5	—	228.5 MyBookie.ag O -110 / U -110 Only BetOnline.ag: 228.0 (O -115 / U -105)	230.0 Caesars O -110 / U -110
NBA · Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks Fri 08:10 PM ET · 11 books	227.0	—	226.5 DraftKings O -107 / U -113	227.0 Caesars O -115 / U -105 Only Bovada: 227.5 (O -110 / U -110)
NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies Fri 08:10 PM ET · 11 books	225.5	—	225.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107 Only BetRivers: 224.5 (O -112 / U -110)	225.5 Fanatics O -110 / U -110
NBA · Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks Fri 08:10 PM ET · 11 books	230.5	—	230.0 Caesars O -110 / U -110	231.5 FanDuel O -108 / U -112
NBA · Minnesota Timberwolves @ New Orleans Pelicans Fri 08:10 PM ET · 11 books	230.5	—	230.5 DraftKings O -112 / U -108	231.5 Bovada O -110 / U -110
NHL · Anaheim Ducks @ Calgary Flames Fri 08:10 PM ET · 11 books	6.5	6.56 Reg. 3.19–3.21 (away–home)	6.5 LowVig.ag O +102 / U -118 Only BetMGM: 6.0 (O -125 / U +105)	6.5 Caesars O -107 / U -115
NHL · San Jose Sharks @ Minnesota Wild Fri 08:10 PM ET · 11 books	6.5	6.08 Reg. 2.42–3.51 (away–home)	6.0 MyBookie.ag O -120 / U -102	6.5 FanDuel O +100 / U -122
NBA · Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Lakers Fri 10:10 PM ET · 11 books	232.0	—	231.5 BetRivers O -108 / U -114	232.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107 Only FanDuel: 232.5 (O -110 / U -110)
NBA · San Antonio Spurs @ Sacramento Kings Fri 10:10 PM ET · 11 books	229.5	—	229.0 Fanatics O -110 / U -110	229.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107
NFL · Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons Sun 09:30 AM ET · 11 books	52.5	—	52.5 LowVig.ag O -105 / U -109	52.5 BetRivers O -115 / U -108
NFL · Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	44.5	—	44.5 Caesars O -105 / U -115 Only BetRivers: 44.0 (O -110 / U -110)	44.5 LowVig.ag O -108 / U -106
NFL · Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	42.5	—	42.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107	42.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107 Only FanDuel: 43.5 (O +100 / U -120)
NFL · Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	51.5	—	51.5 BetRivers O -106 / U -117	51.5 LowVig.ag O -109 / U -105
NFL · Detroit Lions @ Miami Dolphins Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	50.5	—	50.0 Fanatics O -110 / U -110	50.5 DraftKings O -115 / U -105
NFL · New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	47.5	—	47.5 Caesars O -105 / U -115	47.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107 Only Bovada: 48.0 (O -108 / U -112)
NFL · Los Angeles Rams @ Washington Commanders Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	48.5	—	48.0 BetRivers O -112 / U -109	48.5 Bovada O -112 / U -108
NFL · New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	38.5	—	38.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107	38.5 Caesars O -117 / U -104
NFL · Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers Sun 04:05 PM ET · 11 books	40.5	—	40.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107	40.5 FanDuel O -115 / U -105
NFL · Las Vegas Raiders @ San Francisco 49ers Sun 04:05 PM ET · 11 books	52.0	—	51.5 FanDuel O -115 / U -105	52.0 BetRivers O -113 / U -108
NFL · Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks Sun 04:25 PM ET · 10 books	39.5	—	39.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107	39.5 Caesars O -114 / U -106
NFL · Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots Sun 04:25 PM ET · 11 books	45.0	—	44.5 MyBookie.ag O -110 / U -110	45.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107 Only BetRivers: 45.5 (O -108 / U -113)
NFL · Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears Sun 08:20 PM ET · 11 books	47.5	—	47.5 DraftKings O -105 / U -115	47.5 LowVig.ag O -109 / U -105
NFL · Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings Mon 08:15 PM ET · 11 books	44.5	—	44.5 LowVig.ag O -106 / U -108	44.5 LowVig.ag O -106 / U -108 Only BetRivers: 45.0 (O -112 / U -109)
NFL · Washington Commanders @ New York Giants Thu 08:15 PM ET · 8 books	45.0	—	45.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107 Only DraftKings: 44.5 (O -110 / U -110)	45.5 BetUS O -110 / U -110

Price checks follow the morning sports refresh, with later scheduled checks at 11:07 a.m., 4:07 p.m. and 9:07 p.m. Eastern. Recovery and hourly maintenance can refresh prices when due; check the quoted timestamps. Lowest/highest totals are among observed books and are not a ranking of expected value.

Reporting to follow

NFL Fantasy football last-minute pickups: Kaelon Black and Malik Willis lead the way
ESPN · Nov 06, 07:11 AM ET
NBA Jamal Crawford says NBA's potential return to Seattle 'feels different' this time
ESPN · Nov 06, 07:10 AM ET
NFL Regrading 2025 NFL deadline trades: How Gardner, Williams deals look right now
ESPN · Nov 06, 06:50 AM ET
NBA Inside LeBron's first game in Philly -- more than two decades ago
ESPN · Nov 06, 06:48 AM ET
NBA Windhorst & MacMahon: What league insiders are seeing from Philly's 8-1 start
ESPN · Nov 06, 06:45 AM ET
MLB What Yankees, Mets can do this winter to meet their 2027 goals
ESPN · Nov 06, 06:38 AM ET
NFL NFL Week 9 preview: Picks, predictions, schedule, betting odds, fantasy tips
ESPN · Nov 06, 06:28 AM ET
NHL NHL Tonight: Keys to Blue Jackets-Sabres, Sharks-Wild, Ducks-Flames
ESPN · Nov 06, 06:00 AM ET
MLB Ex-Guardians catcher Bo Naylor: Nothing unusual about Clase, Ortiz pitches
ESPN · Nov 05, 08:19 PM ET
MLB Joe West, 4 other former umpires sue over MLB retirement plan
ESPN · Nov 05, 04:40 PM ET

Coverage and sources

Prices: The Odds API. The price rundown compares full-game totals; quotes more than six hours old and started games are excluded at publication. Today's picks preserve a dated snapshot selected from the separate NFL, MLB, NHL and NBA model boards after freshness and review checks. Newsgathering: dated ESPN league RSS headlines linked to their original articles. Market quotes and publisher timestamps are retained in the downloadable edition snapshot; model forecasts and offers remain in each sport's pipeline archives.

NFL: 15 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
MLB: 0 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
NBA: 9 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
NHL: 3 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books

Download this edition's market data · Latest briefing · Back to the homepage