Daily market briefing · Fourth & Value

The market rundown: November 09, 2026

26 upcoming games checked · 23 with different totals across books.

Prices checked Nov 09 at 07:15 AM ET

Open today's picks and current quote checks →. This dated edition preserves its market rundown; current picks are shown only on the latest briefing.

Price movement after our picks

For each pick on a recent card, we keep the latest market snapshot taken after publication and before the start. A pick “beat the move” when other books’ fair probability at the same line ended above the published price’s break-even rate. A changed line is counted separately. Refreshes run a few times a day, so this is the latest pregame snapshot we hold, not necessarily the closing line, and one snapshot says little about skill.

Sport	Picks observed	Beat the move (same line)	Average move	Line moved our way
MLB	8 of 8	1 of 6	-3.0 pp	0 of 2
NHL	93 of 93	75 of 89	+1.6 pp	1 of 1

The price rundown

Book prices pulled Nov 9, 7:11 AM–7:15 AM ET

Full-game totals across observed books. Model total is the experimental NHL model’s expected full-game goals, including one overtime/shootout goal when regulation ends tied; other sports show a dash. Lowest line shows the book with the best Over price at that total; highest line shows the book with the best Under price. With four or more books, the range uses totals at least two books share; a total posted by one book alone is listed beneath as “Only”.
Game / start ET	Market median	Model total	Lowest line	Highest line
NBA · Los Angeles Lakers @ Atlanta Hawks Mon 07:10 PM ET · 11 books	236.5	—	236.5 MyBookie.ag O -110 / U -110	237.5 DraftKings O -113 / U -107
NBA · Cleveland Cavaliers @ Charlotte Hornets Mon 07:10 PM ET · 11 books	215.0	—	214.5 MyBookie.ag O -110 / U -110	215.5 BetRivers O -112 / U -110
NBA · Washington Wizards @ Detroit Pistons Mon 07:10 PM ET · 11 books	218.5	—	218.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107 Only Bovada: 217.5 (O -110 / U -110)	218.5 BetRivers O -115 / U -107
NBA · Memphis Grizzlies @ Toronto Raptors Mon 07:40 PM ET · 11 books	230.5	—	230.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107 Only BetRivers: 229.5 (O -129 / U +104)	231.5 Fanatics O -110 / U -110
NHL · New York Rangers @ Edmonton Oilers Mon 08:00 PM ET · 11 books	6.5	6.43 Reg. 2.87–3.40 (away–home)	6.5 LowVig.ag O -108 / U -108	6.5 BetRivers O -117 / U -107
NBA · Indiana Pacers @ Dallas Mavericks Mon 08:10 PM ET · 11 books	222.5	—	222.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107 Only BetRivers: 221.5 (O -130 / U +105)	223.5 DraftKings O -112 / U -108
NFL · Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings Mon 08:15 PM ET · 11 books	44.0	—	43.5 Fanatics O -115 / U -105	44.0 BetRivers O -114 / U -107
NBA · Denver Nuggets @ Houston Rockets Mon 08:40 PM ET · 11 books	217.0	—	216.5 FanDuel O -110 / U -110	217.5 LowVig.ag O -113 / U -102
NBA · San Antonio Spurs @ Phoenix Suns Mon 09:10 PM ET · 11 books	227.5	—	227.5 DraftKings O -105 / U -115 Only Bovada: 226.5 (O -110 / U -110) Only Fanatics: 227.0 (O -110 / U -110)	228.5 BetRivers O -108 / U -114
NHL · Philadelphia Flyers @ Vancouver Canucks Mon 09:30 PM ET · 11 books	6.0	6.47 Reg. 3.37–2.94 (away–home)	6.0 MyBookie.ag O -118 / U -103	6.5 Fanatics O +105 / U -125
NHL · New York Islanders @ San Jose Sharks Mon 10:00 PM ET · 11 books	6.5	6.08 Reg. 3.07–2.84 (away–home)	6.5 Caesars O +101 / U -124 Only BetMGM: 6.0 (O -130 / U +105)	6.5 LowVig.ag O -101 / U -115
NBA · New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors Mon 10:10 PM ET · 11 books	231.5	—	231.0 Fanatics O -110 / U -110	232.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107
NBA · Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers Tue 08:10 PM ET · 6 books	215.5	—	215.5 Bovada O -105 / U -115 Only Fanatics: 215.0 (O -110 / U -110)	215.5 FanDuel O -110 / U -110
NFL · Washington Commanders @ New York Giants Thu 08:15 PM ET · 11 books	43.5	—	43.5 DraftKings O -105 / U -115 Only BetUS: 43.0 (O -110 / U -110)	43.5 LowVig.ag O -109 / U -105
NFL · New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions Sun 09:30 AM ET · 10 books	51.0	—	51.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107 Only FanDuel: 50.5 (O -115 / U -105)	51.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107 Only DraftKings: 51.5 (O +100 / U -120)
NFL · Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons Sun 01:00 PM ET · 10 books	45.0	—	45.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107	45.5 FanDuel O -110 / U -110
NFL · Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets Sun 01:00 PM ET · 8 books	51.5	—	51.5 FanDuel O -105 / U -115 Only BetRivers: 51.0 (O -109 / U -112)	51.5 LowVig.ag O -113 / U -102
NFL · Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints Sun 01:00 PM ET · 10 books	47.5	—	47.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107	47.5 FanDuel O -115 / U -105
NFL · Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns Sun 01:00 PM ET · 10 books	39.5	—	39.0 LowVig.ag O -113 / U -102	39.5 MyBookie.ag O -110 / U -110
NFL · Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Sun 01:00 PM ET · 8 books	42.0	—	42.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107	42.5 DraftKings O -105 / U -115
NFL · Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts Sun 01:00 PM ET · 10 books	40.5	—	40.5 LowVig.ag O -102 / U -113	40.5 FanDuel O -115 / U -105
NFL · Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans Sun 01:00 PM ET · 10 books	47.0	—	46.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107	47.5 FanDuel O -110 / U -110
NFL · Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals Sun 04:05 PM ET · 10 books	44.5	—	44.5 MyBookie.ag O -110 / U -110	45.0 Bovada O -110 / U -110 Only BetRivers: 46.0 (O -108 / U -113)
NFL · Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders Sun 04:05 PM ET · 9 books	43.0	—	43.0 MyBookie.ag O -110 / U -110	43.5 BetRivers O -110 / U -110
NFL · San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys Sun 04:25 PM ET · 10 books	55.5	—	55.5 MyBookie.ag O -110 / U -110 Only BetRivers: 55.0 (O -110 / U -110)	56.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107
NFL · Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Sun 08:20 PM ET · 10 books	47.5	—	47.5 FanDuel O -105 / U -115	48.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107

Price checks follow the morning sports refresh, with later scheduled checks at 11:07 a.m., 4:07 p.m. and 9:07 p.m. Eastern. Recovery and hourly maintenance can refresh prices when due; check the quoted timestamps. Lowest/highest totals are among observed books and are not a ranking of expected value.

Reporting to follow

NBA What's fueling the rocky start for Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Miami Heat
ESPN · Nov 09, 07:09 AM ET
NBA Bobby Marks' NBA core danger tiers: 19 teams with major decisions looming
ESPN · Nov 09, 06:55 AM ET
NFL Caleb Williams unfazed by 4 interceptions as Bears pull out win vs. Bucs
ESPN · Nov 09, 06:48 AM ET
NFL How to bet Bills-Vikings: Analysis, best bets and top prop plays
ESPN · Nov 09, 06:46 AM ET
MLB Who will win MVP? Cy Young? Picks, analysis for 2026 MLB awards week
ESPN · Nov 09, 06:44 AM ET
NFL Joe Burrow reaching new heights as Bengals face big test
ESPN · Nov 09, 06:00 AM ET
NHL NHL Tonight: Guide to Rangers-Oilers, Flyers-Canucks, Islanders-Sharks
ESPN · Nov 09, 05:48 AM ET
MLB Pedro Martinez appeals for MLB resolution, reflects on effects of 1994 strike
ESPN · Nov 08, 10:31 AM ET

Coverage and sources

Prices: The Odds API. The price rundown compares full-game totals; quotes more than six hours old and started games are excluded at publication. Today's picks preserve a dated snapshot selected from the separate NFL, MLB, NHL and NBA model boards after freshness and review checks. Newsgathering: dated ESPN league RSS headlines linked to their original articles. Market quotes and publisher timestamps are retained in the downloadable edition snapshot; model forecasts and offers remain in each sport's pipeline archives.

NFL: 14 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
MLB: 0 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
NBA: 9 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
NHL: 3 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books

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