Daily market briefing · Fourth & Value
The market rundown: November 11, 2026
31 upcoming games checked · 24 with different totals across books.
Open today's picks and current quote checks →. This dated edition preserves its market rundown; current picks are shown only on the latest briefing.
Price movement after our picks
For each pick on a recent card, we keep the latest market snapshot taken after publication and before the start. A pick “beat the move” when other books’ fair probability at the same line ended above the published price’s break-even rate. A changed line is counted separately. Refreshes run a few times a day, so this is the latest pregame snapshot we hold, not necessarily the closing line, and one snapshot says little about skill.
| Sport | Picks observed | Beat the move (same line) | Average move | Line moved our way |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 4 of 4 | 0 of 2 | -2.5 pp | 0 of 2 |
| NHL | 91 of 91 | 77 of 87 | +1.7 pp | 1 of 1 |
The price rundown
| Game / start ET | Market median | Model total | Lowest line | Highest line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA · Boston Celtics @ Toronto Raptors | 216.0 | 215.5 FanDuel | 216.5 BetMGM | |
| NBA · Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks | 221.5 | 221.5 LowVig.ag | 221.5 BetRivers | |
| NBA · Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers | 226.5 | 225.5 LowVig.ag | 226.5 MyBookie.ag | |
| NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning @ Buffalo Sabres | 6.5 | 6.39 | 6.5 LowVig.ag | 6.5 MyBookie.ag |
| NHL · New York Rangers @ Calgary Flames | 5.5 | 6.01 | 5.5 LowVig.ag | 5.5 BetRivers |
| NBA · Brooklyn Nets @ New Orleans Pelicans | 229.0 | 228.5 MyBookie.ag | 229.5 DraftKings | |
| NBA · San Antonio Spurs @ Chicago Bulls | 239.5 | 239.5 DraftKings | 240.5 Bovada | |
| NBA · Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies | 229.0 | 229.0 LowVig.ag | 230.0 Fanatics | |
| NBA · Los Angeles Lakers @ Milwaukee Bucks | 231.5 | 231.0 LowVig.ag | 231.5 MyBookie.ag | |
| NBA · Orlando Magic @ Utah Jazz | 217.5 | 217.0 Caesars | 217.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NHL · Philadelphia Flyers @ Edmonton Oilers | 6.5 | 6.19 | 6.0 BetMGM | 6.5 BetRivers |
| NBA · Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets | 222.5 | 222.0 MyBookie.ag | 222.5 Fanatics | |
| NHL · Utah Mammoth @ Vegas Golden Knights | 6.5 | 6.34 | 6.5 BetRivers | 6.5 FanDuel |
| NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers | 225.5 | 225.5 Caesars | 226.5 BetRivers | |
| NHL · Nashville Predators @ Anaheim Ducks | 6.5 | 6.53 | 6.5 BetUS | 6.5 MyBookie.ag |
| NHL · Pittsburgh Penguins @ San Jose Sharks | 6.5 | 6.51 | 6.5 DraftKings | 6.5 LowVig.ag |
| NHL · Carolina Hurricanes @ Seattle Kraken | 6.5 | 6.53 | 6.5 BetRivers | 6.5 Fanatics |
| NFL · Washington Commanders @ New York Giants | 41.0 | 41.0 MyBookie.ag | 41.5 BetRivers | |
| NFL · New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions | 51.0 | 51.0 LowVig.ag | 51.5 FanDuel | |
| NFL · Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons | 45.0 | 45.0 LowVig.ag | 45.5 FanDuel | |
| NFL · Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets | 51.0 | 50.5 FanDuel | 51.0 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints | 48.5 | 48.5 MyBookie.ag | 49.0 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns | 40.0 | 39.5 FanDuel | 40.0 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers | 41.5 | 41.5 LowVig.ag | 41.5 Caesars | |
| NFL · Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts | 38.0 | 38.0 LowVig.ag | 38.5 BetRivers | |
| NFL · Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans | 46.5 | 46.0 Fanatics | 46.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals | 39.5 | 39.0 BetUS | 39.5 BetRivers | |
| NFL · Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders | 40.5 | 40.5 LowVig.ag | 40.5 Caesars | |
| NFL · San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys | 55.5 | 55.5 LowVig.ag | 55.5 FanDuel | |
| NFL · Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals | 49.5 | 49.0 Fanatics | 49.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens | 38.5 | 38.5 LowVig.ag | 38.5 FanDuel |
Reporting to follow
- MLB Witnessing Jacob Misiorowski's Cy Young-worthy season
- NBA NBA Power Rankings: 1-30 poll, plus the best newcomer on all 30 teams
- NFL Cowboys rave about Quinnen Williams a year after trade deadline deal
- NBA The group chat that bonds Black NBA coaches off the court
- NFL Why protected picks aren't common in NFL trades
- NFL Questions on 2026 NFL trade deadline deals: Does Kirk Cousins lift the Vikings?
- NHL NHL Tonight: What to watch in Mammoth-Knights, five other games on Wednesday
- MLB Mets, Dodgers all in on Tarik Skubal
- MLB Yankees' Brian Cashman: Brewers manager Pat Murphy's apology 'meant a lot'
Coverage and sources
Prices: The Odds API. The price rundown compares full-game totals; quotes more than six hours old and started games are excluded at publication. Today's picks preserve a dated snapshot selected from the separate NFL, MLB, NHL and NBA model boards after freshness and review checks. Newsgathering: dated ESPN league RSS headlines linked to their original articles. Market quotes and publisher timestamps are retained in the downloadable edition snapshot; model forecasts and offers remain in each sport's pipeline archives.
- NFL: 14 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
- MLB: 0 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
- NBA: 10 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
- NHL: 7 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
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