Daily market briefing · Fourth & Value
The market rundown: November 12, 2026
29 upcoming games checked · 24 with different totals across books.
Open today's picks and current quote checks →. This dated edition preserves its market rundown; current picks are shown only on the latest briefing.
Price movement after our picks
For each pick on a recent card, we keep the latest market snapshot taken after publication and before the start. A pick “beat the move” when other books’ fair probability at the same line ended above the published price’s break-even rate. A changed line is counted separately. Refreshes run a few times a day, so this is the latest pregame snapshot we hold, not necessarily the closing line, and one snapshot says little about skill.
| Sport | Picks observed | Beat the move (same line) | Average move | Line moved our way |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 4 of 4 | 0 of 2 | -2.5 pp | 0 of 2 |
| NHL | 91 of 91 | 77 of 87 | +1.7 pp | 1 of 1 |
The price rundown
| Game / start ET | Market median | Model total | Lowest line | Highest line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHL · Carolina Hurricanes @ Seattle Kraken | 6.5 | 6.53 | 6.5 LowVig.ag | 6.5 BetRivers |
| NHL · Colorado Avalanche @ Ottawa Senators | 6.5 | 6.38 | 6.5 LowVig.ag | 6.5 FanDuel |
| NHL · Washington Capitals @ New Jersey Devils | 6.0 | 6.38 | 6.0 LowVig.ag | 6.5 DraftKings |
| NBA · Detroit Pistons @ Washington Wizards | 220.5 | 220.5 MyBookie.ag | 221.0 LowVig.ag | |
| NBA · Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers | 221.5 | 220.5 FanDuel | 221.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NHL · Montréal Canadiens @ Boston Bruins | 6.0 | 6.07 | 6.0 LowVig.ag | 6.5 Fanatics |
| NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning @ Columbus Blue Jackets | 6.5 | 6.25 | 6.5 BetRivers | 6.5 LowVig.ag |
| NHL · Minnesota Wild @ Toronto Maple Leafs | 6.5 | 6.19 | 6.5 LowVig.ag | 6.5 DraftKings |
| NHL · Detroit Red Wings @ Florida Panthers | 6.0 | 6.04 | 5.5 FanDuel | 6.0 Caesars |
| NHL · Buffalo Sabres @ Chicago Blackhawks | 6.5 | 6.42 | 6.5 LowVig.ag | 6.5 FanDuel |
| NBA · Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 227.5 | 227.0 LowVig.ag | 227.5 MyBookie.ag | |
| NHL · Winnipeg Jets @ Dallas Stars | 5.5 | 5.86 | 5.5 Fanatics | 5.5 LowVig.ag |
| NFL · Washington Commanders @ New York Giants | 41.0 | 40.5 Fanatics | 41.0 Caesars | |
| NBA · Charlotte Hornets @ Phoenix Suns | 213.5 | 213.5 BetRivers | 214.0 MyBookie.ag | |
| NHL · St Louis Blues @ Utah Mammoth | 6.5 | 6.38 | 6.0 MyBookie.ag | 6.5 LowVig.ag |
| NHL · New York Islanders @ Los Angeles Kings | 6.0 | 5.89 | 5.5 BetRivers | 6.0 BetMGM |
| NFL · New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions | 51.0 | 50.5 FanDuel | 51.0 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons | 47.0 | 46.5 DraftKings | 47.0 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets | 51.0 | 50.5 DraftKings | 51.0 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints | 48.5 | 48.5 MyBookie.ag | 49.0 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns | 41.5 | 41.0 Bovada | 41.5 MyBookie.ag | |
| NFL · Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers | 42.0 | 42.0 MyBookie.ag | 42.5 Fanatics | |
| NFL · Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts | 38.0 | 38.0 LowVig.ag | 38.5 DraftKings | |
| NFL · Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans | 46.5 | 46.5 FanDuel | 46.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals | 39.5 | 39.0 LowVig.ag | 39.5 BetRivers | |
| NFL · Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders | 40.5 | 40.5 LowVig.ag | 40.5 DraftKings | |
| NFL · San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys | 55.5 | 55.5 LowVig.ag | 56.0 MyBookie.ag | |
| NFL · Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals | 49.5 | 49.0 Fanatics | 49.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens | 38.5 | 38.5 LowVig.ag | 38.5 Fanatics |
Reporting to follow
- NFL 2026 NFL midseason award rankings: MVP picks, top rookies, OPOY, DPOY, coaches
- MLB How Cubs' Pete-Crow Armstrong became runaway NL MVP favorite
- NBA NBA trade deadline: Big questions for Knicks, Thunder and other top teams
- NFL 2026 NFL midseason report: Questions, stats for all 32 teams entering second half
- NFL Fantasy football: Which players can you trust from these backfields-by-committee?
- NHL NHL Tonight: Bruins-Canadiens, Capitals-Devils highlight Thursday's 11-game slate
- MLB Brewers' Misiorowski, Yanks' Schlittler crowned unanimous Cy Young winners
- MLB Who will win MVP? Picks, analysis for 2026 MLB awards week
Coverage and sources
Prices: The Odds API. The price rundown compares full-game totals; quotes more than six hours old and started games are excluded at publication. Today's picks preserve a dated snapshot selected from the separate NFL, MLB, NHL and NBA model boards after freshness and review checks. Newsgathering: dated ESPN league RSS headlines linked to their original articles. Market quotes and publisher timestamps are retained in the downloadable edition snapshot; model forecasts and offers remain in each sport's pipeline archives.
- NFL: 14 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
- MLB: 0 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
- NBA: 4 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
- NHL: 11 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
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