Daily market briefing · Fourth & Value

The market rundown: November 13, 2026

25 upcoming games checked · 22 with different totals across books.

Prices checked Nov 13 at 07:17 AM ET

Open today's picks and current quote checks →. This dated edition preserves its market rundown; current picks are shown only on the latest briefing.

Price movement after our picks

For each pick on a recent card, we keep the latest market snapshot taken after publication and before the start. A pick “beat the move” when other books’ fair probability at the same line ended above the published price’s break-even rate. A changed line is counted separately. Refreshes run a few times a day, so this is the latest pregame snapshot we hold, not necessarily the closing line, and one snapshot says little about skill.

Sport	Picks observed	Beat the move (same line)	Average move	Line moved our way
MLB	4 of 4	0 of 2	-2.5 pp	0 of 2
NHL	95 of 95	81 of 91	+1.8 pp	1 of 1

The price rundown

Book prices pulled Nov 13, 7:15 AM–7:17 AM ET

Full-game totals across observed books. Model total is the experimental NHL model’s expected full-game goals, including one overtime/shootout goal when regulation ends tied; other sports show a dash. Lowest line shows the book with the best Over price at that total; highest line shows the book with the best Under price. With four or more books, the range uses totals at least two books share; a total posted by one book alone is listed beneath as “Only”.
Game / start ET	Market median	Model total	Lowest line	Highest line
NBA · New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers Fri 07:10 PM ET · 11 books	219.5	—	219.5 DraftKings O -107 / U -113	220.0 LowVig.ag O -102 / U -113
NBA · Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic Fri 07:10 PM ET · 11 books	223.5	—	223.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107 Only BetRivers: 222.5 (O -132 / U +107)	223.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107
NBA · Atlanta Hawks @ Chicago Bulls Fri 08:10 PM ET · 11 books	245.5	—	245.0 Fanatics O -110 / U -110	245.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107
NBA · Cleveland Cavaliers @ Miami Heat Fri 08:10 PM ET · 11 books	235.5	—	235.0 Fanatics O -110 / U -110	235.5 DraftKings O -115 / U -105
NBA · Memphis Grizzlies @ New Orleans Pelicans Fri 08:10 PM ET · 11 books	235.5	—	235.0 Fanatics O -110 / U -110	236.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107
NBA · Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets Fri 08:40 PM ET · 11 books	219.5	—	219.0 LowVig.ag O -113 / U -102 Only BetRivers: 218.5 (O -117 / U -107)	219.5 MyBookie.ag O -110 / U -110
NHL · New York Rangers @ Vancouver Canucks Fri 09:10 PM ET · 11 books	6.5	6.54 Reg. 3.57–2.82 (away–home)	6.5 Bovada O -103 / U -117	6.5 BetUS O -110 / U -110
NBA · Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs Fri 09:40 PM ET · 11 books	219.5	—	219.0 LowVig.ag O -113 / U -102	220.0 Fanatics O -110 / U -110 Only BetMGM: 220.5 (O -105 / U -115)
NBA · Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings Fri 10:10 PM ET · 11 books	229.5	—	229.5 LowVig.ag O -105 / U -109 Only Bovada: 229.0 (O -110 / U -110)	230.5 FanDuel O -110 / U -110
NHL · Nashville Predators @ Vegas Golden Knights Fri 10:10 PM ET · 11 books	6.0	5.93 Reg. 2.72–3.04 (away–home)	6.0 LowVig.ag O -108 / U -108	6.5 BetRivers O +102 / U -125
NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Clippers Fri 10:40 PM ET · 11 books	222.5	—	222.5 BetRivers O -108 / U -114	223.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107
NFL · New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions Sun 09:30 AM ET · 11 books	49.5	—	49.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107	50.5 BetRivers O -117 / U -106
NFL · Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	47.0	—	47.0 BetRivers O -107 / U -114	47.5 Fanatics O -105 / U -115
NFL · Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	51.0	—	50.5 BetRivers O -112 / U -109	51.0 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107
NFL · Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	49.0	—	48.5 DraftKings O -112 / U -108	49.0 MyBookie.ag O -110 / U -110
NFL · Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	40.5	—	40.5 LowVig.ag O -105 / U -109	40.5 LowVig.ag O -105 / U -109
NFL · Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	42.0	—	42.0 MyBookie.ag O -110 / U -110	42.5 FanDuel O -105 / U -115
NFL · Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	37.5	—	37.5 LowVig.ag O -106 / U -108	38.5 BetRivers O -108 / U -114
NFL · Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans Sun 01:00 PM ET · 11 books	46.5	—	46.0 Fanatics O -110 / U -110	46.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107
NFL · Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals Sun 04:05 PM ET · 11 books	39.5	—	39.0 LowVig.ag O -113 / U -102	39.5 MyBookie.ag O -110 / U -110 Only Bovada: 40.0 (O -105 / U -115)
NFL · Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders Sun 04:05 PM ET · 11 books	40.5	—	40.5 LowVig.ag O -104 / U -110	40.5 DraftKings O -112 / U -108
NFL · San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys Sun 04:25 PM ET · 11 books	55.5	—	55.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107	56.0 MyBookie.ag O -110 / U -110
NFL · Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Sun 08:20 PM ET · 11 books	49.5	—	49.5 Caesars O -105 / U -115 Only Bovada: 49.0 (O -112 / U -108)	49.5 LowVig.ag O -110 / U -104 Only BetUS: 50.0 (O -110 / U -110)
NFL · Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens Mon 08:15 PM ET · 11 books	38.5	—	38.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107	39.0 Bovada O -112 / U -108
NFL · Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Thu 08:15 PM ET · 8 books	43.5	—	43.5 FanDuel O +100 / U -120	43.5 LowVig.ag O -107 / U -107 Only BetRivers: 44.0 (O -113 / U -108) Only DraftKings: 44.5 (O -110 / U -110)

Price checks follow the morning sports refresh, with later scheduled checks at 11:07 a.m., 4:07 p.m. and 9:07 p.m. Eastern. Recovery and hourly maintenance can refresh prices when due; check the quoted timestamps. Lowest/highest totals are among observed books and are not a ranking of expected value.

Behind the numbers

NFL · Analysis · 2026-11-12

Chiefs–Falcons: Josh Downs Arrives as the 47 Total Sits Above an Experimental Estimate

Kansas City added a slot receiver and Atlanta leans on Bijan Robinson, while books sit at 46.5–47.5 and an experimental, unvalidated estimate is near 44.4.

Reporting to follow

NFL NFC North: Bears win division? Cousins has Vikes in command?
ESPN · Nov 13, 06:58 AM ET
NFL Need fantasy football lineup or trade advice? Join our live Q&A with our expert, noon ET
ESPN · Nov 13, 06:54 AM ET
NFL Don't be surprised if Jordan Love makes history and Mendoza performs like a QB1
ESPN · Nov 13, 06:52 AM ET
MLB What's new in free agency? Lessons from 2026 MLB GM meetings
ESPN · Nov 13, 06:46 AM ET
NBA Donovan Mitchell's renewed faith in Cleveland fuels the Cavs' future
ESPN · Nov 13, 06:43 AM ET
NHL NHL Tonight: What to watch in Rangers-Canucks, Predators-Golden Knights
ESPN · Nov 13, 05:34 AM ET
NBA Cade drops 52 in Thursday's NBA Recap
ESPN · Nov 13, 12:48 AM ET
NBA Cade Cunningham's historic night puts Pistons past Wizards in 2OT thriller
ESPN · Nov 13, 12:37 AM ET
MLB Cubs' Pete Crow-Armstrong, Astros' Yordan Alvarez unanimous MVP winners
ESPN · Nov 12, 11:25 PM ET
MLB Who has won the MLB MVP Award? All-time winners list
ESPN · Nov 12, 08:04 PM ET

Coverage and sources

Prices: The Odds API. The price rundown compares full-game totals; quotes more than six hours old and started games are excluded at publication. Today's picks preserve a dated snapshot selected from the separate NFL, MLB, NHL and NBA model boards after freshness and review checks. Newsgathering: dated ESPN league RSS headlines linked to their original articles. Market quotes and publisher timestamps are retained in the downloadable edition snapshot; model forecasts and offers remain in each sport's pipeline archives.

NFL: 14 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
MLB: 0 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
NBA: 9 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
NHL: 2 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books

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