Daily market briefing · Fourth & Value
The market rundown: November 14, 2026
26 upcoming games checked · 18 with different totals across books.
Open today's picks and current quote checks →. This dated edition preserves its market rundown; current picks are shown only on the latest briefing.
Price movement after our picks
For each pick on a recent card, we keep the latest market snapshot taken after publication and before the start. A pick “beat the move” when other books’ fair probability at the same line ended above the published price’s break-even rate. A changed line is counted separately. Refreshes run a few times a day, so this is the latest pregame snapshot we hold, not necessarily the closing line, and one snapshot says little about skill.
| Sport | Picks observed | Beat the move (same line) | Average move | Line moved our way |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | -3.2 pp | 0 of 2 |
| NHL | 98 of 98 | 84 of 94 | +1.8 pp | 1 of 1 |
The price rundown
| Game / start ET | Market median | Model total | Lowest line | Highest line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA · Brooklyn Nets @ Memphis Grizzlies | 223.0 | 222.5 BetRivers | 223.5 FanDuel | |
| NBA · Chicago Bulls @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 238.0 | 237.5 MyBookie.ag | 238.0 LowVig.ag | |
| NBA · Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat | 228.5 | 228.5 LowVig.ag | 228.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NHL · Buffalo Sabres @ Dallas Stars | 6.0 | 6.06 | 6.0 Caesars | 6.5 Fanatics |
| NHL · San Jose Sharks @ Utah Mammoth | 6.0 | 6.36 | 6.0 BetUS | 6.5 BetRivers |
| NHL · New York Islanders @ Anaheim Ducks | 6.5 | 6.52 | 6.5 LowVig.ag | 6.5 Bovada |
| NHL · Calgary Flames @ Los Angeles Kings | 5.5 | 5.99 | 5.5 LowVig.ag | 5.5 BetUS |
| NFL · New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions | 49.5 | 49.5 MyBookie.ag | 49.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons | 47.0 | 47.0 Bovada | 47.5 MyBookie.ag | |
| NFL · Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets | 51.0 | 50.5 BetRivers | 51.0 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints | 49.0 | 48.5 BetRivers | 49.0 MyBookie.ag | |
| NFL · Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns | 40.5 | 40.5 FanDuel | 40.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers | 42.0 | 42.0 LowVig.ag | 42.5 FanDuel | |
| NFL · Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts | 37.5 | 37.5 LowVig.ag | 37.5 Bovada | |
| NFL · Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans | 46.5 | 46.5 FanDuel | 46.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals | 39.5 | 39.0 MyBookie.ag | 39.5 BetUS | |
| NFL · Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders | 40.5 | 40.5 LowVig.ag | 40.5 Caesars | |
| NFL · San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys | 55.5 | 55.5 LowVig.ag | 56.0 MyBookie.ag | |
| NHL · Edmonton Oilers @ Philadelphia Flyers | 6.5 | 6.08 | 6.5 FanDuel | 6.5 DraftKings |
| NHL · Calgary Flames @ Anaheim Ducks | 6.5 | 6.59 | 6.5 Fanatics | 6.5 DraftKings |
| NHL · Florida Panthers @ Dallas Stars | 6.0 | 6.05 | 5.5 Fanatics | 6.0 BetMGM |
| NFL · Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals | 49.5 | 49.0 BetUS | 49.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NHL · Nashville Predators @ San Jose Sharks | 6.5 | 5.96 | 6.5 BetRivers | 6.5 Caesars |
| NHL · Vancouver Canucks @ Vegas Golden Knights | 6.5 | 6.64 | 6.5 FanDuel | 6.5 BetRivers |
| NFL · Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens | 38.5 | 38.5 MyBookie.ag | 39.0 Bovada | |
| NFL · Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans | 43.5 | 43.5 FanDuel | 43.5 LowVig.ag |
Behind the numbers
NFL · Analysis · 2026-11-12
Chiefs–Falcons: Josh Downs Arrives as the 47 Total Sits Above an Experimental Estimate
Kansas City added a slot receiver and Atlanta leans on Bijan Robinson, while books sit at 46.5–47.5 and an experimental, unvalidated estimate is near 44.4.
Reporting to follow
- NFL Patriots place RB TreVeyon Henderson on IR with still unexplained illness
- NFL Fantasy playbook: Week 10 Shadow Reports, lineup locks and projected scores
- NHL Most consecutive games played in MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL
- NBA Lakers' Austin Reaves (heel bruise) to sit out vs. Suns
- NFL DraftKings DFS cheat sheet: Best values for Sunday's main slate
- NHL Winnipeg Jets vs. Chicago Blackhawks: Game Highlights
- NBA 76ers' Joel Embiid out vs. Pacers due to plantar fascia management
- NHL Seattle Kraken vs. Carolina Hurricanes: Game Highlights
- NBA Fantasy basketball adds and NBA bets: Fire up Fears, Bey on Saturday
- MLB Angels, catcher Tyler Heineman avoid arbitration with 1-year contract
Coverage and sources
Prices: The Odds API. The price rundown compares full-game totals; quotes more than six hours old and started games are excluded at publication. Today's picks preserve a dated snapshot selected from the separate NFL, MLB, NHL and NBA model boards after freshness and review checks. Newsgathering: dated ESPN league RSS headlines linked to their original articles. Market quotes and publisher timestamps are retained in the downloadable edition snapshot; model forecasts and offers remain in each sport's pipeline archives.
- NFL: 14 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
- MLB: 0 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
- NBA: 3 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
- NHL: 9 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
Download this edition's market data · Latest briefing · Back to the homepage