NBA Methods

Separate the market's estimate from a basketball forecast.

What is available now

We collect NBA odds from The Odds API, compare identical lines across books, remove margin within each book, and show the median fair probability. Missing prices or unpaired outcomes stay unavailable.

Consensus and market watch

Over and under must belong to the same game, player, market, line and book. Spread pairs use opposite signed handicaps. Duplicate quotes never create extra book votes. Best price means the best payout on the exact same outcome and line.

Market Watch compares an offer against the median fair probability from at least three other books at that line. Its price-based return estimate is not a validated win probability or a recommendation. Integer lines can push; the screen compares probabilities conditional on a decision and does not estimate a cash return including pushes.

Historical player baselines

Where NBA Stats game logs are available, we use up to 30 prior regular-season appearances, with at least 20 required. Games with zero minutes, future dates, duplicate player/game IDs and ambiguous names are excluded. We do not fill missing rookies with a 50% guess.

The mean is the average observed box score. The historical probability is a smoothed hit rate, (wins + 1) ÷ (non-push games + 2). A combination uses that player's points, rebounds and assists from the same game. Equal results on whole-number lines are pushes. Last season's games may be used as historical context; they are not presented as an injury-adjusted prediction for a new rotation.

Before model picks go live

A production NBA model needs expected minutes, role and usage, current roster identities, opponent pace and efficiency, home court, rest and back-to-backs, and confirmed availability. We also need chronological out-of-sample testing, calibration and price-based evaluation. Until then, the site publishes market comparisons and labeled historical references, without a model-driven best-bet list.

Freshness and season handling

Started games and quotes older than 24 hours are hidden. Failed refreshes are reported as feed errors, not as an empty slate. The last successful snapshot time remains visible. Preseason prices, if supplied, do not enter regular-season history. Opening-night markets can appear weeks before player props; an empty prop board is normal before the season.

Sources

The Odds API: NBA coverage · NBA player box scores · 2026–27 NBA schedule