Fourth & Value videos
Weekly market reviews, game previews and betting explainers—connecting the model, the price and the decision.
New feature · Walkthrough · 1:40
Every NFL prop and game line we track, graded against what the books’ own prices implied. See every market at a glance, check whether a streak is more than chance, and switch between the season and the last week or two.
What to remember: a gap inside the shaded band is the kind of swing luck produces. Three weeks in, the market has been close overall.
NHL season preview · 2026–27 · 6:20
Opening-week hockey, changing player roles, and the evidence behind a forecast. We explain what our NHL research found and how the exact line and price change a betting decision.
Weekly market review · Weeks 2–3 · 6:28
An audited Week 2 recap, our featured-pick results, and the injuries and prices that matter for Week 3.
Betting Basics · Episode 02 · 1:46
Every book charges a fee. Take the best price on each side across books and a 4.5% hold drops to about 3%. We build a synthetic market step by step, turn it into fair odds, look at a real board, and explain why a negative hold is rarely free money.
What to remember: only combine prices at the same line. The same opinion can be a good bet at one price and a losing bet at another.
Episode 01 · 78 seconds
Minus 110 is more than a price. It sets the break-even point, creates an overround, and changes whether a model edge is actionable.
What to remember: devigging helps estimate the market’s fair split. You still need to beat the actual price you can bet.
Weekly market preview · Week 2
A full Monday Night Football preview using the model, consensus, book prices, injuries, role, and game-script risk. Best current price in the snapshot: +118 at BetOnline.
The angle: the model projects 1.20 receptions and gives the under a 54.2% probability, while the six-book consensus is closer to 44%.