Betting basics

Learn the number behind the number.

Short explainers that connect sportsbook pricing to the model, the market, and the decision you actually have to make.

Episode 01 · 78 seconds

Why winning half your bets can still lose money

Minus 110 is more than a price. It sets the break-even point, creates an overround, and changes whether a model edge is actionable.

What to remember: devigging helps estimate the market’s fair split. You still need to beat the actual price you can bet.

Weekly market preview · Week 2

Giants–Rams: Cam Skattebo under 1.5 receptions

A full Monday Night Football preview using the model, consensus, book prices, injuries, role, and game-script risk. Best current price in the snapshot: +118 at BetOnline.

Market snapshot: September 20, 2026 at approximately 1:53 p.m. ET. Confirm the line and final injury news before acting.

The angle: the model projects 1.20 receptions and gives the under a 54.2% probability, while the six-book consensus is closer to 44%.