NFL · 2026 Week 9
Injury vs totals market
A research screen comparing conservative injury impacts with captured total-line movement.
Research only. Position effects are priors awaiting historical calibration. A signal is not a pick, and missing line history is shown explicitly.
| Game | Base model | Injury model | Injury impact | Market move | Residual | Best over | Best under | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX @ BAL | 45.0 | 42.9 | -2.1 | -8.0 | -5.9 | lowvig 40.0 (-102) | williamhill_us 40.5 (-108) | possible_downward_overreaction |
| CIN @ ATL | 47.9 | 47.9 | +0.0 | +2.5 | +2.5 | lowvig 52.5 (-105) | draftkings 52.5 (-108) | no_clear_reaction_edge |
| DEN @ CAR | 43.7 | 43.7 | +0.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | betmgm 44.0 (-108) | lowvig 43.5 (-102) | no_clear_reaction_edge |
| DAL @ IND | 42.7 | 42.7 | +0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 | lowvig 51.5 (-107) | lowvig 51.5 (-107) | no_clear_reaction_edge |
| NYJ @ KC | 46.8 | 46.8 | +0.0 | +4.0 | +4.0 | williamhill_us 47.5 (-105) | lowvig 47.5 (-107) | no_clear_reaction_edge |
| DET @ MIA | 47.6 | 47.6 | +0.0 | +1.5 | +1.5 | fanduel 50.5 (-105) | draftkings 50.5 (-105) | no_clear_reaction_edge |
| CLE @ NO | 42.0 | 42.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | williamhill_us 43.0 (-107) | fanduel 42.5 (+100) | no_clear_reaction_edge |
| NYG @ PHI | 42.4 | 42.4 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | lowvig 40.0 (-107) | draftkings 39.5 (-105) | no_clear_reaction_edge |
| LA @ WAS | 47.4 | 47.4 | +0.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | betmgm 47.5 (-105) | lowvig 47.5 (-107) | no_clear_reaction_edge |
| HOU @ LAC | 42.5 | 42.5 | +0.0 | -2.0 | -2.0 | betmgm 41.0 (-105) | draftkings 40.5 (-102) | no_clear_reaction_edge |
| LV @ SF | 47.9 | 47.9 | +0.0 | +4.0 | +4.0 | williamhill_us 52.5 (-107) | lowvig 52.5 (-107) | no_clear_reaction_edge |
| GB @ NE | 47.9 | 47.9 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | lowvig 47.0 (-107) | draftkings 46.5 (-105) | no_clear_reaction_edge |
| ARI @ SEA | 43.8 | 43.8 | +0.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | lowvig 41.0 (-107) | lowvig 41.0 (-107) | no_clear_reaction_edge |
| TB @ CHI | 47.9 | 47.9 | +0.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | draftkings 47.5 (+100) | lowvig 47.0 (-102) | no_clear_reaction_edge |
| BUF @ MIN | 47.4 | 47.4 | +0.0 | -1.5 | -1.5 | lowvig 46.0 (-102) | williamhill_us 45.5 (-107) | no_clear_reaction_edge |