NFL · 2026 Week 2
Injury vs totals market
A research screen comparing conservative injury impacts with captured total-line movement.
Research only. Position effects are priors awaiting historical calibration. A signal is not a pick, and missing line history is shown explicitly.
| Game | Base model | Injury model | Injury impact | Market move | Residual | Best over | Best under | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ BUF | 47.2 | 44.8 | -2.4 | +2.5 | +4.9 | — | — | possible_underreaction |
| CAR @ ATL | 42.4 | 36.0 | -6.3 | +0.0 | +6.3 | lowvig 43.5 (-107) | lowvig 43.5 (-107) | possible_underreaction |
| NO @ BAL | 49.5 | 46.5 | -2.9 | +0.0 | +2.9 | lowvig 45.5 (-107) | lowvig 45.5 (-107) | possible_underreaction |
| MIN @ CHI | 48.6 | 42.6 | -6.0 | +2.5 | +8.5 | fanduel 47.5 (-105) | lowvig 47.0 (-107) | possible_underreaction |
| CIN @ HOU | 49.5 | 45.2 | -4.3 | -0.2 | +4.0 | lowvig 45.5 (-105) | williamhill_us 45.5 (-108) | possible_underreaction |
| PIT @ NE | 41.9 | 39.5 | -2.4 | -1.5 | +0.9 | lowvig 41.5 (-102) | bovada 41.0 (-105) | no_clear_reaction_edge |
| GB @ NYJ | 37.5 | 33.9 | -3.6 | +2.0 | +5.6 | betrivers 44.5 (-107) | lowvig 44.0 (-102) | possible_underreaction |
| CLE @ TB | 43.3 | 41.7 | -1.5 | +0.0 | +1.5 | fanduel 41.5 (-102) | lowvig 41.5 (-107) | possible_underreaction |
| PHI @ TEN | 44.2 | 43.6 | -0.6 | -3.0 | -2.4 | lowvig 39.5 (-107) | fanatics 39.5 (-105) | possible_downward_overreaction |
| JAX @ DEN | 49.3 | 48.2 | -1.2 | +1.0 | +2.2 | fanduel 45.5 (-105) | lowvig 45.5 (-102) | possible_underreaction |
| LV @ LAC | 37.3 | 33.3 | -4.0 | +1.0 | +5.0 | lowvig 43.5 (-105) | williamhill_us 43.5 (-107) | possible_underreaction |
| SEA @ ARI | 47.6 | 40.3 | -7.2 | -3.2 | +4.0 | fanduel 41.5 (-102) | lowvig 40.5 (+101) | possible_underreaction |
| WAS @ DAL | 44.3 | 42.8 | -1.5 | -1.0 | +0.5 | lowvig 51.0 (-107) | draftkings 50.5 (+100) | no_clear_reaction_edge |
| MIA @ SF | 42.2 | 40.5 | -1.8 | -1.0 | +0.8 | fanduel 45.5 (-102) | williamhill_us 44.5 (-104) | no_clear_reaction_edge |
| IND @ KC | 39.6 | 37.2 | -2.5 | -0.8 | +1.7 | bovada 46.0 (+100) | betmgm 46.0 (-108) | possible_underreaction |
| NYG @ LA | 49.7 | 48.0 | -1.7 | -0.2 | +1.4 | lowvig 48.0 (-107) | williamhill_us 47.5 (-103) | no_clear_reaction_edge |