Fourth & Value · Weekly market review

NFL Week 4 review: the model receipts and the Week 5 watchlist

An audited Week 4 scorecard using frozen pregame data, plus Fourth & Value model-market disagreements to research for Week 5.

Generated from saved pregame evidence and official completed results. Re-running the workflow does not rewrite the frozen Week 4 inputs.

Week 4: the market scoreboard

Recorded closes produced 9 overs, 7 unders and 0 pushes. Against our archived market median, 9 games finished over, 7 under and 0 pushed.

The raw totals model direction went 4–12 with 0 pushes and -8.23u across 16 games with archived same-line prices; 0 unpriced directions are excluded from profit/loss. Mean absolute error was 11.07 points for the model versus 9.91 for the archived market median and 9.62 for the recorded close.

Week 4 final points relative to the recorded closing total — Final points minus the recorded close. This grades a saved forecast; it does not retroactively select a strategy.

The model scorecard

The deduplicated published shortlist contained 170 selections; 166 were conservatively graded and 4 remain unresolved. The graded set went 89–77 with 0 pushes for +18.84u, or 11.3% on units risked. Missing participation or missing statistics remain unresolved rather than becoming automatic unders.

Market	W–L	Net units	Unresolved
Receptions	38–33	+10.07u	2
Passing touchdowns	14–10	+7.64u	0
Passing attempts	9–4	+4.13u	0
Passing completions	5–4	+1.15u	0
Receiving yards	1–0	+1.00u	1
Rushing attempts	12–14	-1.93u	0
Rushing yards	10–12	-3.23u	1

Week 4 archived prop selection units by market — One highest-EV archived offer per player, game and modeled market.

Probability quality, not just profit

Across 417 representative non-push outcomes with both probabilities available, the model Brier score was 0.2520 versus 0.2511 for the de-vigged consensus. The game-block 95% interval for model minus market Brier was -0.0032 to +0.0054.

A positive one-week return and a better probability score are different claims. This report keeps both because a profitable slate can still expose probability weaknesses, and vice versa.

Week 5: disagreement is a research question

The new weekly refresh is frozen before the first kickoff. The largest raw totals disagreements are:

DET @ ARI: model 45.4 vs archived median 54.5 (-9.1). This is a research gap, not a calibrated edge.
PHI @ JAX: model 47.1 vs archived median 42.0 (+5.1). This is a research gap, not a calibrated edge.
BUF @ LA: model 49.9 vs archived median 54.5 (-4.6). This is a research gap, not a calibrated edge.
BAL @ ATL: model 47.7 vs archived median 43.5 (+4.2). This is a research gap, not a calibrated edge.
SF @ SEA: model 49.9 vs archived median 46.0 (+3.9). This is a research gap, not a calibrated edge.

Week 5 model minus market total gaps — Raw model minus archived median total. These gaps are not automatically betting recommendations.

Player props to recheck

Brock Purdy Passing attempts under 31.5 at draftkings (-107); saved model mean 24.13, model probability 98.0%, estimated EV +89.6%. Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated
Josh Allen Passing attempts under 32.5 at draftkings (-119); saved model mean 25.84, model probability 98.0%, estimated EV +80.4%. Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated
Matthew Stafford Passing attempts over 35.5 at betmgm (-185); saved model mean 44.16, model probability 98.0%, estimated EV +51.0%. Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated
Jalon Daniels Passing touchdowns under 0.5 at bovada (+185); saved model mean 0.48, model probability 50.0%, estimated EV +42.5%. Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated
Dak Prescott Passing touchdowns under 1.5 at bovada (+170); saved model mean 2.09, model probability 50.0%, estimated EV +35.0%. Calibration fitted; not prospectively validated

These are saved prices from the weekly archive. Recheck the current line, price, injury status and role before treating any one of them as actionable. Model status labels are shown rather than hidden.

Audit notes

The scorecard uses hash-verified immutable weekly pregame archives.

The completed-week scorecard uses only the frozen pregame archive for Week 4 and official results/player statistics available after the games. The preview uses a separate frozen Week 5 archive. The workflow refuses to create a new archive after a game has started, refuses to overwrite an existing archive whose hashes do not match, and refuses to publish a review while any official Week 4 game remains unplayed.

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