Daily market briefing · Fourth & Value
The market rundown: November 01, 2026
23 upcoming games checked · 16 with different totals across books.
Open today's picks and current quote checks →. This dated edition preserves its market rundown; current picks are shown only on the latest briefing.
Price movement after our picks
For each pick on a recent card, we keep the latest market snapshot taken after publication and before the start. A pick “beat the move” when other books’ fair probability at the same line ended above the published price’s break-even rate. A changed line is counted separately. Refreshes run a few times a day, so this is the latest pregame snapshot we hold, not necessarily the closing line, and one snapshot says little about skill.
| Sport | Picks observed | Beat the move (same line) | Average move | Line moved our way |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 22 of 22 | 1 of 20 | -2.1 pp | 0 of 3 |
| NHL | 79 of 79 | 59 of 75 | +1.1 pp | 1 of 1 |
The price rundown
| Game / start ET | Market median | Model total | Lowest line | Highest line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL · Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys | 54.5 | 54.5 LowVig.ag | 54.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 43.5 | 43.0 Bovada | 43.5 MyBookie.ag | |
| NFL · Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills | 54.5 | 54.5 LowVig.ag | 54.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals | 46.5 | 46.0 Bovada | 46.5 MyBookie.ag | |
| NFL · Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 39.0 | 38.5 FanDuel | 39.5 MyBookie.ag | |
| NFL · Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions | 46.0 | 45.5 Fanatics | 46.5 FanDuel | |
| NFL · Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars | 46.5 | 46.5 FanDuel | 46.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets | 46.0 | 46.0 LowVig.ag | 46.5 Fanatics | |
| NHL · Winnipeg Jets @ Carolina Hurricanes | 6.0 | 6.08 | 6.0 LowVig.ag | 6.5 DraftKings |
| NBA · Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic | 222.0 | 221.5 DraftKings | 222.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NHL · Minnesota Wild @ Washington Capitals | 6.0 | 6.06 | 6.0 LowVig.ag | 6.5 Fanatics |
| NFL · Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams | 45.5 | 45.5 LowVig.ag | 45.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NHL · Utah Mammoth @ Philadelphia Flyers | 6.0 | 6.10 | 5.5 Fanatics | 6.5 DraftKings |
| NFL · Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos | 40.5 | 40.5 MyBookie.ag | 41.0 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins | 43.0 | 43.0 LowVig.ag | 43.5 DraftKings | |
| NBA · Brooklyn Nets @ Indiana Pacers | 230.5 | 229.5 FanDuel | 230.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NHL · Edmonton Oilers @ New York Rangers | 6.5 | 6.48 | 6.5 LowVig.ag | 6.5 Fanatics |
| NHL · Ottawa Senators @ Anaheim Ducks | 6.5 | 6.58 | 6.5 DraftKings | 6.5 LowVig.ag |
| NFL · Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders | 40.0 | 40.0 LowVig.ag | 40.5 DraftKings | |
| NBA · Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors | 219.0 | 219.0 LowVig.ag | 219.5 MyBookie.ag | |
| NBA · Toronto Raptors @ Los Angeles Lakers | 227.5 | 227.0 LowVig.ag | 228.0 Fanatics | |
| NFL · Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks | 46.5 | 46.5 LowVig.ag | 46.5 LowVig.ag | |
| NFL · Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens | 48.5 | 48.5 Caesars | 49.0 LowVig.ag |
Behind the numbers
NFL · Analysis · 2026-10-31
Titans–Bengals: A 46.5 total meets an experimental estimate that predates the Simmons trade
Tennessee traded Jeffery Simmons after the experimental scoring estimate's data window closed. Books sit at 46.5 for Titans–Bengals, so what does the estimate know?
NFL · Analysis · 2026-10-31
Ravens–Bills: Lamar Jackson's return meets a 54.5 total and a lower experimental estimate
Jackson is set to return and books list 54.5. Our experimental estimate, with inputs through Oct. 26, sits far lower, but that gap is not a proven edge.
Reporting to follow
- NFL Sources: Raiders not planning on trading Maxx Crosby, who wants to stay
- NFL How to bet Eagles-Commanders: Analysis, tips and top prop plays
- NFL The Patriots are 18-43 all time in Miami. Here are keys to a Week 8 victory
- NBA Here's what fans need to know in the sports world today
- MLB Rays pick up $20M option on ace pitcher Drew Rasmussen
- MLB Orioles decline OF Luis Robert's $20M club option for 2027
- MLB Emilio Pagan declines $10M player option for 2027 with Reds
Coverage and sources
Prices: The Odds API. The price rundown compares full-game totals; quotes more than six hours old and started games are excluded at publication. Today's picks preserve a dated snapshot selected from the separate NFL, MLB and NHL model boards after freshness and review checks. Newsgathering: dated ESPN league RSS headlines linked to their original articles. Market quotes and publisher timestamps are retained in the downloadable edition snapshot; model forecasts and offers remain in each sport's pipeline archives.
- NFL: 14 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
- MLB: 0 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
- NBA: 4 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
- NHL: 5 upcoming games with fresh paired totals at two or more books
Download this edition's market data · Latest briefing · Back to the homepage