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Book probability is the break-even probability implied by the offered odds, including margin. Paired fair probability removes margin using both sides at the same book, game and line; it is unavailable without a matching opposite side.

Model probability is conditional on the bet settling without a push. Edge is model probability minus book probability: 100 basis points = 1 percentage point. Expected profit / $100 accounts for pushes and is an uncertain estimate, not a payout promise.

Consensus probability uses paired prices at this exact line. The median line is a separate descriptive comparison. Model means are not calibrated betting thresholds. Read the full method and limitations.