NFL · Week 1

NFL team totals

Implied team totals, de-vigged prices and best available line • Find outlier books before lines move

Every number on this page is derived from sportsbook prices: team totals come from the consensus total and spread, and fair percentages are the two sides de-vigged against each other. No model estimate is published for this slate.

Games this week
16
Sportsbooks compared
11
Average book hold
4.7%
Average market total
45.3

What the model thinks, and what that has been worth

Our totals model has no measurable skill against the closing line. Measured walk-forward over 863 completed games, only 0.043 of each point it claims has historically shown up in the result, and that figure is not statistically distinguishable from zero. Graded at real prices across the 2025 season it went 49.2% on 181 bets for −5.8% ROI, and got worse as its claimed edge grew.

So projections below are shown two ways: what the model says on its own, and that number shrunk toward the market by the amount its record justifies. The shrunk number is the one any probability here is priced from. We publish both rather than only the flattering one.

Every game at a glance

Team totals are implied by each game's consensus total and spread. Fair percentages are de-vigged.

Game Kickoff Total Away TT Home TT Fair O/U Hold Best over Best under
NE @ SEA Wed 8:20 PM ET 44.5 20.75 23.75 49.2% / 50.8% 4.7% -102 lowvig -110 betmgm
SF @ LA Thu 8:35 PM ET 48.5 22.50 26.00 49.5% / 50.5% 4.7% -105 fanduel -110 betmgm
ATL @ PIT Sun 1:00 PM ET 42.0 19.25 22.75 50.0% / 50.0% 4.7% -107 lowvig -105 bovada
BAL @ IND Sun 1:00 PM ET 48.0 25.75 22.25 49.5% / 50.5% 4.8% -102 lowvig -110 betus
BUF @ HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET 45.0 23.00 22.00 50.0% / 50.0% 4.8% -107 lowvig -107 lowvig
CHI @ CAR Sun 1:00 PM ET 47.0 25.00 22.00 50.0% / 50.0% 4.8% -107 lowvig -107 lowvig
TB @ CIN Sun 1:00 PM ET 50.5 23.50 27.00 49.6% / 50.4% 4.7% -102 lowvig -108 fanduel
CLE @ JAX Sun 1:00 PM ET 40.5 16.00 24.50 50.0% / 50.0% 4.8% -108 fanduel -105 fanatics
NO @ DET Sun 1:00 PM ET 50.0 21.50 28.50 50.0% / 50.0% 4.8% -107 lowvig -107 lowvig
NYJ @ TEN Sun 1:00 PM ET 38.5 18.50 20.00 50.0% / 50.0% 4.8% -107 lowvig -105 williamhill_us
ARI @ LAC Sun 4:25 PM ET 47.5 19.00 28.50 49.2% / 50.8% 4.7% -102 draftkings -110 betus
GB @ MIN Sun 4:25 PM ET 46.0 22.25 23.75 51.1% / 48.9% 4.7% -110 betmgm -102 lowvig
MIA @ LV Sun 4:25 PM ET 40.5 18.75 21.75 49.9% / 50.1% 4.7% -105 fanatics -107 lowvig
WAS @ PHI Sun 4:25 PM ET 44.5 19.75 24.75 49.0% / 51.0% 4.7% -102 lowvig -108 fanduel
DAL @ NYG Sun 8:20 PM ET 48.0 25.50 22.50 50.0% / 50.0% 4.8% -107 lowvig -107 lowvig
DEN @ KC Mon 8:15 PM ET 43.5 20.50 23.00 50.6% / 49.4% 4.7% -108 fanduel -102 lowvig

Game detail

NE @ SEA
Wed 8:20 PM ET
NE team total
20.75
SEA team total
23.75
Market total44.5
Market spreadSEA -3.0
Fair over / under49.2% / 50.8%
Book hold4.7%
Best over · 6 books at line-102 lowvig
Best under-110 betmgm
Model projection · raw51.1
Model projection · shrunk to record44.8
Model over vs market over50.9% vs 49.2%
All 11 sportsbook lines
Book Total Over Under Spread Fav Dog
Consensus 44.5 — — SEA -3.0 — —
betmgm 44.5 -108 -110 SEA -3.0 -110 +100
betonlineag 44.5 -105 -115 SEA -3.0 -104 -116
betrivers 44.0 -112 -109 SEA -3.0 -118 -104
betus 44.0 -110 -110 SEA -3.0 -115 -105
bovada 44.0 -110 -110 SEA -3.0 -115 -105
draftkings 44.5 -105 -115 SEA -3.0 -118 -102
fanatics 44.0 -110 -110 SEA -3.5 +100 -120
fanduel 44.5 -108 -112 SEA -3.5 -102 -120
lowvig 44.5 -102 -113 SEA -3.0 -108 -102
mybookieag 44.0 -110 -110 SEA -3.5 +102 -123
williamhill_us 44.5 -108 -112 SEA -3.0 -115 -104
SF @ LA
Thu 8:35 PM ET
SF team total
22.50
LA team total
26.00
Market total48.5
Market spreadLA -3.5
Fair over / under49.5% / 50.5%
Book hold4.7%
Best over · 6 books at line-105 fanduel
Best under-110 betmgm
Model projection · raw51.2
Model projection · shrunk to record48.6
Model over vs market over50.4% vs 49.5%
All 11 sportsbook lines
Book Total Over Under Spread Fav Dog
Consensus 48.5 — — LA -3.5 — —
betmgm 48.5 -108 -110 LA -4.0 -110 -108
betonlineag 48.0 -113 -107 LA -3.5 -118 -102
betrivers 48.5 -108 -113 LA -3.5 -113 -108
betus 48.0 -115 -105 LA -3.5 -115 -105
bovada 48.0 -110 -110 LA -4.0 -105 -115
draftkings 48.5 -108 -112 LA -3.5 -118 -102
fanatics 48.5 -110 -110 LA -3.5 -110 -110
fanduel 48.5 -105 -115 LA -3.5 -120 -102
lowvig 48.0 -110 -104 LA -3.5 -114 +103
mybookieag 48.0 -110 -110 LA -4.0 -110 -110
williamhill_us 48.5 -107 -113 LA -3.5 -118 -102
ATL @ PIT
Sun 1:00 PM ET
ATL team total
19.25
PIT team total
22.75
Market total42.0
Market spreadPIT -3.5
Fair over / under50.0% / 50.0%
Book hold4.7%
Best over · 6 books at line-107 lowvig
Best under-105 bovada
Model projection · raw46.8
Model projection · shrunk to record42.2
Model over vs market over50.7% vs 50.0%
All 11 sportsbook lines
Book Total Over Under Spread Fav Dog
Consensus 42.0 — — PIT -3.5 — —
betmgm 42.0 -108 -110 PIT -3.5 -105 -112
betonlineag 42.0 -110 -110 PIT -3.5 -104 -116
betrivers 41.5 -109 -112 PIT -3.5 -104 -118
betus 42.5 -110 -110 PIT -3.5 -105 -115
bovada 42.0 -115 -105 PIT -3.5 +100 -120
draftkings 42.5 -105 -115 PIT -3.5 -112 -108
fanatics 42.5 -110 -110 PIT -3.5 -105 -115
fanduel 41.5 -115 -105 PIT -3.5 -104 -118
lowvig 42.0 -107 -107 PIT -3.5 +101 -112
mybookieag 42.0 -110 -110 PIT -3.5 -110 -110
williamhill_us 42.0 -112 -108 PIT -3.5 -105 -114
BAL @ IND
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL team total
25.75
IND team total
22.25
Market total48.0
Market spreadIND +3.5
Fair over / under49.5% / 50.5%
Book hold4.8%
Best over · 7 books at line-102 lowvig
Best under-110 betus
Model projection · raw46.8
Model projection · shrunk to record48.0
Model over vs market over49.8% vs 49.5%
All 11 sportsbook lines
Book Total Over Under Spread Fav Dog
Consensus 48.0 — — IND +3.5 — —
betmgm 47.5 -110 -108 IND +3.5 -115 -105
betonlineag 48.0 -105 -115 IND +3.5 -122 +102
betrivers 48.0 -108 -113 IND +3.5 -115 -106
betus 48.0 -110 -110 IND +3.5 -120 +100
bovada 48.0 -105 -115 IND +3.5 -120 +100
draftkings 47.5 -115 -105 IND +3.5 -115 -105
fanatics 48.0 -110 -110 IND +3.5 -120 +100
fanduel 47.5 -115 -105 IND +3.5 -118 -104
lowvig 48.0 -102 -113 IND +3.5 -115 +104
mybookieag 48.0 -110 -110 IND +3.5 -120 +100
williamhill_us 47.5 -117 -104 IND +3.5 -117 -103
BUF @ HOU
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BUF team total
23.00
HOU team total
22.00
Market total45.0
Market spreadHOU +1.0
Fair over / under50.0% / 50.0%
Book hold4.8%
Best over · 6 books at line-107 lowvig
Best under-107 lowvig
Model projection · raw51.0
Model projection · shrunk to record45.3
Model over vs market over50.8% vs 50.0%
All 11 sportsbook lines
Book Total Over Under Spread Fav Dog
Consensus 45.0 — — HOU +1.0 — —
betmgm 44.5 -110 -108 HOU +1.0 -108 -110
betonlineag 45.0 -110 -110 HOU +1.0 -110 -110
betrivers 44.5 -110 -110 HOU +1.0 -113 -108
betus 45.0 -110 -110 HOU +0.0 +100 -120
bovada 45.0 -110 -110 HOU +1.0 -110 -110
draftkings 44.5 -115 -105 HOU +1.5 -118 -102
fanatics 45.0 -110 -110 HOU +1.0 -110 -110
fanduel 44.5 -118 -104 HOU +1.5 -114 -106
lowvig 45.0 -107 -107 HOU +1.0 -105 -105
mybookieag 45.0 -110 -110 HOU +1.0 -110 -110
williamhill_us 44.5 -117 -104 HOU +1.0 -112 -108
CHI @ CAR
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI team total
25.00
CAR team total
22.00
Market total47.0
Market spreadCAR +3.0
Fair over / under50.0% / 50.0%
Book hold4.8%
Best over · 8 books at line-107 lowvig
Best under-107 lowvig
Model projection · raw46.3
Model projection · shrunk to record47.0
Model over vs market over49.9% vs 50.0%
All 11 sportsbook lines
Book Total Over Under Spread Fav Dog
Consensus 47.0 — — CAR +3.0 — —
betmgm 47.0 -108 -110 CAR +3.0 -102 -118
betonlineag 47.0 -110 -110 CAR +3.0 -105 -115
betrivers 47.0 -112 -109 CAR +3.0 -113 -108
betus 47.0 -110 -110 CAR +3.0 -105 -115
bovada 47.0 -110 -110 CAR +3.0 -110 -110
draftkings 46.5 -115 -105 CAR +3.0 -102 -118
fanatics 47.0 -110 -110 CAR +3.0 -110 -110
fanduel 47.5 -102 -120 CAR +3.0 -114 -106
lowvig 47.0 -107 -107 CAR +3.0 +100 -110
mybookieag 47.0 -110 -110 CAR +3.0 -110 -110
williamhill_us 46.5 -118 -103 CAR +3.0 -106 -114
TB @ CIN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
TB team total
23.50
CIN team total
27.00
Market total50.5
Market spreadCIN -3.5
Fair over / under49.6% / 50.4%
Book hold4.7%
Best over · 11 books at line-102 lowvig
Best under-108 fanduel
Model projection · raw49.7
Model projection · shrunk to record50.5
Model over vs market over49.9% vs 49.6%
All 11 sportsbook lines
Book Total Over Under Spread Fav Dog
Consensus 50.5 — — CIN -3.5 — —
betmgm 50.5 -108 -110 CIN -3.5 -110 -108
betonlineag 50.5 -105 -115 CIN -4.0 -105 -115
betrivers 50.5 -110 -110 CIN -4.0 -107 -114
betus 50.5 -105 -115 CIN -3.5 -110 -110
bovada 50.5 -105 -115 CIN -4.0 -105 -115
draftkings 50.5 -108 -112 CIN -3.5 -112 -108
fanatics 50.5 -110 -110 CIN -3.5 -115 -105
fanduel 50.5 -112 -108 CIN -3.5 -115 -105
lowvig 50.5 -102 -113 CIN -4.0 +100 -110
mybookieag 50.5 -110 -110 CIN -4.0 -110 -110
williamhill_us 50.5 -106 -114 CIN -3.5 -112 -108
CLE @ JAX
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CLE team total
16.00
JAX team total
24.50
Market total40.5
Market spreadJAX -8.5
Fair over / under50.0% / 50.0%
Book hold4.8%
Best over · 11 books at line-108 fanduel
Best under-105 fanatics
Model projection · raw47.0
Model projection · shrunk to record40.8
Model over vs market over50.9% vs 50.0%
All 11 sportsbook lines
Book Total Over Under Spread Fav Dog
Consensus 40.5 — — JAX -8.5 — —
betmgm 40.5 -108 -110 JAX -8.5 -108 -110
betonlineag 40.5 -112 -108 JAX -9.0 -105 -115
betrivers 40.5 -114 -107 JAX -8.0 -113 -108
betus 40.5 -110 -110 JAX -9.0 -105 -115
bovada 40.5 -115 -105 JAX -8.5 -110 -110
draftkings 40.5 -110 -110 JAX -8.5 -110 -110
fanatics 40.5 -115 -105 JAX -8.5 -110 -110
fanduel 40.5 -108 -112 JAX -8.5 -108 -112
lowvig 40.5 -109 -105 JAX -9.0 +100 -110
mybookieag 40.5 -110 -110 JAX -9.0 -110 -110
williamhill_us 40.5 -118 -118 JAX -8.5 -108 -110
NO @ DET
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NO team total
21.50
DET team total
28.50
Market total50.0
Market spreadDET -7.0
Fair over / under50.0% / 50.0%
Book hold4.8%
Best over · 6 books at line-107 lowvig
Best under-107 lowvig
Model projection · raw45.7
Model projection · shrunk to record49.8
Model over vs market over49.4% vs 50.0%
All 11 sportsbook lines
Book Total Over Under Spread Fav Dog
Consensus 50.0 — — DET -7.0 — —
betmgm 49.5 -110 -108 DET -7.0 -108 -110
betonlineag 50.0 -110 -110 DET -7.0 -104 -116
betrivers 50.0 -113 -108 DET -7.0 -108 -113
betus 50.0 -110 -110 DET -7.0 -105 -115
bovada 49.5 -110 -110 DET -7.0 -110 -110
draftkings 49.5 -118 -102 DET -7.0 -108 -112
fanatics 50.0 -110 -110 DET -7.0 -110 -110
fanduel 49.5 -115 -105 DET -6.5 -122 +100
lowvig 50.0 -107 -107 DET -7.0 +101 -112
mybookieag 50.0 -110 -110 DET -7.0 -110 -110
williamhill_us 49.5 -115 -105 DET -7.0 -106 -113
NYJ @ TEN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NYJ team total
18.50
TEN team total
20.00
Market total38.5
Market spreadTEN -1.5
Fair over / under50.0% / 50.0%
Book hold4.8%
Best over · 11 books at line-107 lowvig
Best under-105 williamhill_us
Model projection · raw39.2
Model projection · shrunk to record38.5
Model over vs market over50.1% vs 50.0%
All 11 sportsbook lines
Book Total Over Under Spread Fav Dog
Consensus 38.5 — — TEN -1.5 — —
betmgm 38.5 -110 -110 TEN -1.5 -110 -108
betonlineag 38.5 -110 -110 TEN +0.0 -116 -104
betrivers 38.5 -112 -109 TEN -1.5 -109 -112
betus 38.5 -110 -110 TEN +0.0 -120 +100
bovada 38.5 -110 -110 TEN -1.0 -110 -110
draftkings 38.5 -112 -108 TEN -1.5 -110 -110
fanatics 38.5 -110 -110 TEN -1.5 -105 -115
fanduel 38.5 -110 -110 TEN -1.5 -110 -110
lowvig 38.5 -107 -107 TEN +0.0 -112 +101
mybookieag 38.5 -110 -110 TEN -1.0 -110 -110
williamhill_us 38.5 -115 -105 TEN -1.5 -109 -109
ARI @ LAC
Sun 4:25 PM ET
ARI team total
19.00
LAC team total
28.50
Market total47.5
Market spreadLAC -9.5
Fair over / under49.2% / 50.8%
Book hold4.7%
Best over · 6 books at line-102 draftkings
Best under-110 betus
Model projection · raw41.9
Model projection · shrunk to record47.3
Model over vs market over49.3% vs 49.2%
All 11 sportsbook lines
Book Total Over Under Spread Fav Dog
Consensus 47.5 — — LAC -9.5 — —
betmgm 47.5 -108 -110 LAC -9.5 -108 -110
betonlineag 47.0 -115 -105 LAC -9.5 -110 -110
betrivers 47.0 -114 -107 LAC -9.5 -115 -106
betus 47.5 -110 -110 LAC -9.5 -110 -110
bovada 47.0 -115 -105 LAC -9.0 -110 -110
draftkings 47.5 -102 -118 LAC -9.5 -115 -105
fanatics 47.5 -105 -115 LAC -9.0 -110 -110
fanduel 47.5 -104 -118 LAC -9.5 -114 -106
lowvig 47.0 -113 -102 LAC -9.5 -105 -105
mybookieag 47.0 -110 -110 LAC -10.0 -110 -110
williamhill_us 47.5 -108 -112 LAC -9.5 -110 -108
GB @ MIN
Sun 4:25 PM ET
GB team total
22.25
MIN team total
23.75
Market total46.0
Market spreadMIN -1.5
Fair over / under51.1% / 48.9%
Book hold4.7%
Best over · 6 books at line-110 betmgm
Best under-102 lowvig
Model projection · raw44.1
Model projection · shrunk to record45.9
Model over vs market over49.7% vs 51.1%
All 11 sportsbook lines
Book Total Over Under Spread Fav Dog
Consensus 46.0 — — MIN -1.5 — —
betmgm 46.0 -110 -108 MIN -1.5 -108 -110
betonlineag 46.0 -115 -105 MIN -1.0 -115 -105
betrivers 46.0 -113 -108 MIN -1.5 -109 -112
betus 46.0 -115 -105 MIN -1.0 -115 -105
bovada 46.0 -115 -105 MIN -1.5 -110 -110
draftkings 46.5 -108 -112 MIN -1.5 -108 -112
fanatics 46.5 -110 -110 MIN -1.5 -110 -110
fanduel 46.5 -110 -110 MIN -1.5 -110 -110
lowvig 46.0 -113 -102 MIN -1.0 -110 +100
mybookieag 46.5 -110 -110 MIN -1.5 -110 -110
williamhill_us 46.5 -107 -114 MIN -1.5 -109 -110
MIA @ LV
Sun 4:25 PM ET
MIA team total
18.75
LV team total
21.75
Market total40.5
Market spreadLV -3.0
Fair over / under49.9% / 50.1%
Book hold4.7%
Best over · 6 books at line-105 fanatics
Best under-107 lowvig
Model projection · raw39.7
Model projection · shrunk to record40.5
Model over vs market over49.9% vs 49.9%
All 11 sportsbook lines
Book Total Over Under Spread Fav Dog
Consensus 40.5 — — LV -3.0 — —
betmgm 40.5 -110 -120 LV -3.0 -112 -105
betonlineag 40.5 -110 -110 LV -3.0 -107 -113
betrivers 40.0 -114 -107 LV -3.0 -110 -110
betus 40.0 -110 -110 LV -3.0 -105 -115
bovada 40.0 -110 -110 LV -3.0 -115 -105
draftkings 40.5 -112 -108 LV -3.0 -112 -108
fanatics 40.5 -105 -115 LV -3.0 -115 -105
fanduel 39.5 -112 -108 LV -3.0 -120 -102
lowvig 40.5 -107 -107 LV -3.0 -102 -108
mybookieag 40.0 -110 -110 LV -3.0 -110 -110
williamhill_us 40.5 -109 -110 LV -3.0 -110 -110
WAS @ PHI
Sun 4:25 PM ET
WAS team total
19.75
PHI team total
24.75
Market total44.5
Market spreadPHI -5.0
Fair over / under49.0% / 51.0%
Book hold4.7%
Best over · 10 books at line-102 lowvig
Best under-108 fanduel
Model projection · raw46.2
Model projection · shrunk to record44.6
Model over vs market over50.2% vs 49.0%
All 11 sportsbook lines
Book Total Over Under Spread Fav Dog
Consensus 44.5 — — PHI -5.0 — —
betmgm 44.5 -110 -120 PHI -5.5 -108 -110
betonlineag 44.5 -105 -115 PHI -4.5 -113 -107
betrivers 44.5 -107 -114 PHI -5.0 -110 -110
betus 44.5 -105 -115 PHI -4.5 -115 -105
bovada 44.0 -115 -105 PHI -5.0 -110 -110
draftkings 44.5 -105 -115 PHI -5.5 -108 -112
fanatics 44.5 -105 -115 PHI -5.0 -110 -110
fanduel 44.5 -112 -108 PHI -5.5 -105 -115
lowvig 44.5 -102 -113 PHI -4.5 -108 -102
mybookieag 44.5 -110 -110 PHI -5.0 -110 -110
williamhill_us 44.5 -108 -112 PHI -4.5 -113 -107
DAL @ NYG
Sun 8:20 PM ET
DAL team total
25.50
NYG team total
22.50
Market total48.0
Market spreadNYG +3.0
Fair over / under50.0% / 50.0%
Book hold4.8%
Best over · 7 books at line-107 lowvig
Best under-107 lowvig
Model projection · raw46.8
Model projection · shrunk to record48.0
Model over vs market over49.8% vs 50.0%
All 11 sportsbook lines
Book Total Over Under Spread Fav Dog
Consensus 48.0 — — NYG +3.0 — —
betmgm 48.0 -110 -108 NYG +3.0 -118 -102
betonlineag 48.0 -110 -110 NYG +3.0 -113 -107
betrivers 48.0 -112 -109 NYG +3.0 -113 -108
betus 48.0 -110 -110 NYG +3.0 -115 -105
bovada 48.0 -110 -110 NYG +3.0 -115 -105
draftkings 48.5 -105 -115 NYG +3.0 -115 -105
fanatics 48.0 -110 -110 NYG +3.0 -115 -105
fanduel 48.5 -105 -115 NYG +2.5 -105 -115
lowvig 48.0 -107 -107 NYG +3.0 -108 -102
mybookieag 48.5 -110 -110 NYG +3.0 -120 +100
williamhill_us 47.5 -120 -102 NYG +3.0 -113 -107
DEN @ KC
Mon 8:15 PM ET
DEN team total
20.50
KC team total
23.00
Market total43.5
Market spreadKC -2.5
Fair over / under50.6% / 49.4%
Book hold4.7%
Best over · 10 books at line-108 fanduel
Best under-102 lowvig
Model projection · raw43.4
Model projection · shrunk to record43.5
Model over vs market over50.0% vs 50.6%
All 11 sportsbook lines
Book Total Over Under Spread Fav Dog
Consensus 43.5 — — KC -2.5 — —
betmgm 43.5 -112 -105 KC -2.5 -118 +100
betonlineag 43.5 -115 -105 KC -2.5 -116 -104
betrivers 43.5 -108 -113 KC -2.5 -118 -103
betus 43.5 -115 -105 KC -2.0 -120 +100
bovada 44.0 -105 -115 KC -2.5 -120 +100
draftkings 43.5 -110 -110 KC -3.0 +100 -120
fanatics 43.5 -115 -105 KC -2.5 -115 -105
fanduel 43.5 -108 -112 KC -2.5 -115 -105
lowvig 43.5 -113 -102 KC -2.5 -112 +101
mybookieag 43.5 -110 -110 KC -2.5 -115 -105
williamhill_us 43.5 -112 -108 KC -2.5 -117 -103